Exit polls can get it right or wrong. Last night I chose Millward Brown SMG KRC's polls (as used on TVN) as opposed to TNS OBOP (as used on TVP). Now, TVP being the state-run station controlled by placemen of PiS and SLD, I thought, "well, here are polls that suit those who order them".
Yet the TNS OBOP poll (41.2% Komorowski, 35.8% Kaczyński, 13.5% Napieralski) now seem to be far more accurate. After all the votes have been counted, the actual results look like this: Komorowski 41.5%, Kaczyńśki 36.5%, Napieralski 13.7%.
This leaves a mere 5 percentage points between Komorowski and Kaczyński. Marginally more than the 3.2 percentage-point difference between Donald Tusk and Lech Kaczyński in the first round of the 2005 presidential elections, that Kaczyński won in the second round.
Question now is, how will Napieralski's electorate vote. Napieralski started with around 4% in the polls at the beginning of the campaign, so he did well. Who voted for him? Social liberals or economic socialists? The answer to this question will determine outcome of the second round. The former will not vote for Kaczyński. The latter are less likely to vote for Komorowski.
The next two weeks will now see a very heated and embittered campaign, aimed at the 21% of the electorate who voted for candidates other than Komorowski and Kaczyński.
While not the most charismatic of people, I shall be voting for Komorowski on the basis that if Poland is to press on with reform, it needs a president who does not block parliament with vetoes. Kaczyński - we've had this guy before as premier and he failed. He failed to rebuild social trust that communism had torn to the ground. He failed to understand that free enterprise builds the wealth of nations, not armies of bureaucrats. I don't want him back as president.
Very good summary of the election, though a bit biased ;)
ReplyDeleteMichael, I know Polish journalists are kind of poor at maths, but that's not the reason to make the same errors as they do. Percent is not the same as percentage point.
The last paragraph - try to put this message across to those who voted for Mr Kaczynski - what we see as his drawbacks in the view are his virtues. For you new president won't block the necessary reforms, for them he will prevent passing harmful laws.
Howdy Michael,
ReplyDeleteYou wrote, if Poland is to press on with reform, it needs a president who does not block parliament with vetoes. Would you be so kind to enumerate what kinds of reforms were blocked by Kaczyński brother? Point-by-point. This might be in a separate post. That's first. A second is, what a kind of reforms PO provides on? And thirdly, passing through a philosophy of blocking, this should be suppressed the Constitutional Tribunal as this also sometimes blocks frenzy Legislature concepts.
You also wrote, Kaczyński - we've had this guy before as premier and he failed. So, this might be also said about Komorowski, as "we've ha this guy before as the Minister of Defence and he failed."
He failed to rebuild social trust that communism had torn to the ground. He failed to understand that free enterprise builds the wealth of nations, not armies of bureaucrats.
Wow, have you ever seen that
http://www.pis.org.pl/download.php?g=mmedia&f=dwa_lata_solidarnego_panstwa.pdf
@ Student SGH
ReplyDeleteThanks spotting the %/percentage point mistake - duly corrected.
@ Marcin
Separate post on way (between now and second round).
I knew it'd happen (Marcin's comment) - you can throw arguments for and against each candidate endlessly.
ReplyDeleteExcellent - looking forward to reading that post! And I'd appreciate if Poland's best political blogger joins it.
PS. I saw only one correct comment on the results, on Bankier.pl, but they're familiar there with that stuff.
Sorry for a double comment, but the polls prepared for TVN were far off mark, the most credible was the one prepared for TVP. I'd put it down to scruffiness of the pollsters and the surveyed - some are ashamed to admit they voted for Kaczynski...
ReplyDeleteI must join the Polish people who support the importance of the Presidential veto.
ReplyDeleteIt may just be that I started working as a civil servant in England at the time of 'Old Labour's' Harold Wilson, went through the Thatcher years and then New Labour. It used to be known as See-Saw politics. Every new party came into power promising to transform the country by undoing all of the failures of the previous party, whose programme had been introduced as part of their promise to transform the country by undoing all of the failures of the previous party, etc. Governments often die of voter boredom.
I am quite shocked by the level of support by foreign economic commentators about the need to change the constitution in Poland. They want a strong government that can introduce the right legislation. Do they so trust in politicians? (I separate your personal views from those of economic commentators since you, as an individual, need only follow your emotion, whereas professionals should consider much wider issues. I don't want to be rude, in other words)
Poland has more weird (and interesting) politicians than most and I just don't understand the logic. Although the Polish system makes controversial legislation difficult to get agreement in the Sejm; some bad, partisan and divisive legislation still gets through. The Presidential veto, by requiring a larger Sejm majority helps prevent these, whilst the ability to get that majority helps overturn a narrow-minded veto by the President. The whole result is that significant change reflects a largely consensus view between the parties and in the country, thereby providing a sustainable and sensible basis for the future. I consider that this stability is the prime basis for Poland's ongoing successful development.
studentSGH - comments are one thing, refutations of merit are another. The trick is to be able to spot the difference, weigh them objectively, and rebut them if need be. Generalisations like 'you can throw arguments...etc', (in my lowly opinion), don't cut the mustard and might seem to patronise ever so slightly.
ReplyDeletePozdrawiam,