Cui bono? asked Adthelad commenting here recently on the Smolensk disaster. It certainly seems to be to the bono of Jarosław Kaczyński's PiS, which has managed to revitalise itself totally, reinvent itself a more moderate voice and make up some 30 percentage points of drift.
How come 48% of Poles voted Kaczynski? asked Scatts commenting here last night on the exit polls. A map of how Poland voted gives you the answer. Rural eastern Poland was massively pro-Kaczyński. Western and urban Poland, massively pro-Komorowski. Lublin, where the antics of PO deputy Janusz Palikot swayed the moral outrage of the local electorate, was the only big city to vote Kaczyński. 66% of university graduates voted Komorowski with only 34% voting Kaczyński, whereas of those with only school education, 62% voted Kaczyński while 38% voted Komorowski. Big cities were 63%-37% for Komorowski, while the Polish wieś (village) voted 58%-42% for Kaczyński.
Map courtesy of Mikrobit/PKW
Komorowski is a safe pair of hands, stability rather than reform. And the slim majority that PO could muster over PiS is a strong signal to premier Tusk that with parliamentary elections next autumn, he had better behave himself and keeps his troops in order.
The result is a good one. No one-party system is good. Checks and balances are needed. With a strong PiS in opposition, PO will not be able to afford any slip-ups.
These elections, despite the circumstances, show that Poland is normalising politically. Go back just ten years, and post-communist Aleksander Kwaśniewski trounced all-comers in the first round with 53%. This time round, the post-communists were said to have had a good showing at 14%. Now, for the first time, we have the same two parties, PiS and PO, contested the presidency as in a previous election. Consistency is taking hold. If this goes on, a normal two-party system will take root.
Some good points made by the Economist's CEE blog:
The big question now is the future of the Polish political landscape. Some suspect that Mr Kaczyński's true aim was to to lose this election by a whisker in order to allow PO a free hand, which would mean unpopular reforms and a better chance for Law and Justice at the parliamentary election in the autumn of 2011.
Another theory is that the fruits of victory may prove not quite what PO wanted. As EU Observer notes, the "veto-wielding, traditionalist late president" was a handy common enemy which preserved party unity. With the Kaczyński bogeyman gone, infighting in the victorious camp may be the result.
Now to get on with it. The government has no excuses - reform of the ineffectual Polish state and its sleepy aparatus must be pushed ahead. There's no need to cut as deeply as George Osborne is proposing in the UK - the Polish budget deficit is nowhere near such a bad way (6.9% vs. 11.1%) but cuts are still needed to get it down to manageable (1.5%-2.5%) levels.
As I've written here many times, the business environment in Poland must be more small business friendly. It must become easier and cheaper for the entrepreneur to hire people. This means reform of ZUS - a huge disincentive for the private sector to employ anyone. And it must become easier and quicker to set up new businesses. Poland needs to shoot up the rankings of the World Bank and other global institutions when it comes to the ease of doing business. Infrastructure delivery needs speeding up especially in the areas of waste treatment, roads and railways. The tax system needs to become more streamlined and user friendly - it costs Poland two and half times more to collect a zloty of tax than Ireland to collect a euro of tax.
Inefficient, over-bureaucratised states are poorer and more corrupt than efficient states with a lean, well-organised public sector. This has been proved time and time again by academic studies and rankings around the world. The obstacle to reform has gone, now it's time to plough ahead.
The parliamentary elections will happen much faster than next autumn.
ReplyDeleteEither this autumn paired with the local elections or next spring.
Nice piece, but the last paragraph depends upon what you mean by normalising. I explored some of the issues in my last blog, perhaps you' like to take a look. :)
ReplyDeleteHow very curious to see the 'East Wall' towns of Białystok and Lublin so pro-Kaczyński, more so even than the surrounding countryside... I seem to recall Michał how poor an impression you had of Białystok railway station about a year or so back. I never thought Lublin was so 'retarded' in the same way, however.
ReplyDeleteAlso note the apparently anomalous enclave around Białowieża, which seems to have got very commercially minded. Rich Varsovians going back to nature perhaps? Or tourists bringing in money and more liberal attitudes?
The orange colour of the whole of western Poland is also somewhat surprising. Is there really such a pro-commercial attitude closer to Germany, and if so why?
Kaczynski's Belarus gaffe and not facing up to London's Polish migrants probably cost him the election.
ReplyDeleteIt may worth checking out how the eastern orange enclave voted two weeks ago.
I don't know if my questions were that relevant, but I'll ask once again. Who and why voted for Kaczynski? If you don't answer these questions you can't expect to see Donald Tusk staying on as prime minister in 2011...
ReplyDeletePaństwo Smoleńskie is gone? Really? Your friend Toyah was absoletely right to say you're out of touch. More and more people worship Kaczynski and PiS. We won't have Państwo Smoleńskie, but we are witnessing a fledging Społeczeństwo Smoleńskie, millions of people whose president was murdered by the system, I see around more and more Poles who fall for this. PO is in the soup, PiS is getting up of its knees.
And did you try to ask yourself why 53% of voters put their crosses against Kwaśniewski in 2000?
Why a two-party system is normal? Is it normal when social liberals don't have their representation? For me normal would be a system when in each quadrant of the coordinate system you once drew there was one party - so PO, PiS, SLD and a new party for economic & social liberals. And please don't tell me PO is socially liberal, it's in between.
I just spent over 1/2 hr writing a post only for Blogger to lose it. Just thought I'd share that happy thought :(
ReplyDeleteDeep orange areas around Białowieża forest are predominantly eastern orthodox. Some of these people call themselves Polish Belorusians, some Eastern Orthodox Poles, yet another 'locals', but all avoid voting for catholic-nationalist minded parties. Traditionally SLD was leading in this areas, recently they switched to PO.
ReplyDeleteYou can see the same pattern of minorities voting against PiS in other areas - Lithuanians in Puńsk and Sejny, Germans in Opole Silesia, Lemkos in Bieszczady.
Interestingly, despite Tusk's Kashubian background, Kashubians south and west of Gdańsk often vote for PiS.
You wouldn't be so kind as to elaborate as to what you meant by the title of this posting by any chance and explain exactly how he made political capital out of the death of his brother and close friends? I assume it's not by simply standing for election but then I can't quite grasp your train of thought.
ReplyDelete@ f&b - read your blog post - and think that although we're coming at it from a different (UK) political background, when it comes to our analysis of the Polish political scene, our point of view is similar.
ReplyDelete@ adthelad - Smolensk has radicalised a fair (15%? 20%) chunk of the Polish electorate. You yourself have moved on from your constitutional quest for the right to say 'no' to all polticians; I dare say Smolensk has been instrumental in shaping your political worldview.
Państwo Smoleńskie is a state obsessed by conspiracies, deeply mistrustful of 'the other' both within Poland and abroad, limited in outlook and failing to appreciate the pressing need to reform public finances.
@ Bartek
ReplyDeleteAgreed that threat of PiS government is greater today than it was on 9 April. In a way, having a stronger PiS should sharpen PO's act. Its natural instinct is laziness, going for the line of least resistance, idling, blaming a recalcitrant veto-wielding president for not going flat out for reform.
This autumn's local elections are a side-show; let the best gospodarz win is all I say, regardless of political party.
Next autumn's parliamentary elections will be key. Anon (top comment) says they will happen earlier; I don't think PO have the nerve to call it sooner than is absolutely necessary. Four years with a PO majority parliament and PO president would be useful for Poland. However, I agree we need a lib-lib quadrant party. If only UPR wasn't lead by such a weirdo!
Poor Adam, after the recent data wipeout I know how it feels - copy your comments somewhere, like I do when I write longer ones.
ReplyDeleteMichael, I fear that PO is too clunky to get their acts together. And the opposition will have plenty of opportunities to slag the government and new president off.
They won't go flat out for the reforms - Bronek promised the moon in his campaign, now they even't don't know what do - option one is to press on with libreal reforms, option two is to cringe before 'social' voters.
Parliamentray elections might be brought forward by dint of Polish presidency in EU. Changing government could cause an unnecessary disturbance.
The problem is if there's room for lib-lib party in Polish politics. UPR is a model right-wing party - socially conservative (though in a different way than PiS) and liberal in economic issues. A bud of such a party was Demokraci.pl, but they didn't even get 5% of votes in 2005, then they allied with SLD and everything went down the drain.
Enjoy the trip to Dobra!
Have to say I disagree on all counts.
ReplyDeleteMy world view has not changed one iota since Smolensk. I simply would like our government to act responsibly and fulfil it's obligations to the dead by carrying out a full and proper inquiry. Now both you and I know, if only from the way these are carried out in the U.K., that if there is any chance of political damage to the government, they carry out 'pseudo' enquiries. Fact? Fact.
As a result I don't see a support base that is obsessed by conspiracies, only people who can see that all efforts are being taken to avoid a proper investigation. I'm sure the majority would be happy if they saw their government act with respect and due diligence in order to negate any 'natural' suspicions and fears or to make sure all possible means are taken to ensure the Russians are held to account for the way they handle their end of the 'bargain' but as we can see, this government has no intention of doing either. Fantastic. We should all be ecstatic I suppose.
With respect to elections I still believe all votes should count, not just the yes votes. In fact in my early pursuit of the matter it was proven to me that the present system is unconstitutional as a result of enquiries by a student of law at Warsaw University with one of his lecturers who helped pen the present constitution (Sorry if I've mentioned this before).
Public finances always need reform, especially when you have a heavy social bent in the national psyche and a plethora of nationalised businesses. Thankfully, there have always been the Kanczyńskis to blame, irrespective of the truth, or any social contract with the electorate. Of course the Ks did themselves no favours with some of their 'wpadki' but, and I'm sure you'll admit this, they had all and sundry gunning against them irrespective of these and for reasons that had nothing to do with good governance.
Mistrust is a healthy starting point in both internal and international politics as all politicians are at the whim of their electorates. Add to that the wonderful way in which people treated each other in PRL and how 'lustracja' has been carried out in this country who exactly should they trust? Tusk (with his vitriolic slating of SLD for its political use of Blida's suicide only to do so himself), Komorowski, or perhaps Palikot or Rychu? As to what you mean by 'limited in outlook', you have to be a bit more specific for me to drawn into debating such a generalisation. Perhaps you mean being limited in business acumen and ability? Either way I await Komorowski's i.e. Tusk's 'solution' to the problem.
Pozdrawiam,
A
Excellent, Michal. It's important to understand that Kaczynski's anti-capitalist and interventionist attitude to the economy bought him many votes. Kaczynski is now unchallenged as the leader of his well-disciplined party. Faced with such a determined enemy, the government party may not have the guts to proceed along with its privatisation programme, its reform of the pensions and cutback on state administration in health and corporation law.
ReplyDeleteI know Poles who are deliberately setting up their Polish busineses in London to avoid the horrendous Polish corporate bureaucracy.
Also was Kaczynski right to criticise joining the euro? Politically that helped him.
In essence Rostowski suggested the same but in a much more diplomatic way so that european feathers aren't ruffled but Poland still won't join until Euroland has its house in order.
You seem to have set a British style 10 year reform agenda. Not a hope, surely.
ReplyDeleteIts interesting that Komorowski is now trying to distance himself from PO and saying he wants be a president of the people willing to wield his veto in the defence of non-party interests. Given your description of him as being for stability rather than reform and on the, I think reasonable, assumption that he is already planning on maximising his potential for a two-term presidency, are your hopes diminishing? Although I can't help but feel cynical about his party aims here, my hopes are rising that he will be a positive influence, not on getting reform as such, no matter how much needed, but sustainable reform that may not be as good, but will have better long term effect.