After three glorious days, the clouds have rushed in from the west, driven by strong winds. Four days without rain - then buckets start to fall, horizontally. Looking out of the bathroom window, I see the netting on the neighbours' new fence ripped off and a fire hose laid out across and land to pump surface water off the sodden land, which is trying to grow a crop. Brief excursions yesterday and on Tuesday, but today only a few metres across the garden to the compost bin.
I feel as though venturing out further would be risky for my immune system; it's a definite low. An early night last night, followed by a massive ten and half hours of sleep (22:00 to 08:30) has kept at bay whatever I feel was creeping up on me; another such night is in order. And it's hard to motivate myself to exercise.
Koleje Mazowiecki is sending messages several times a day informing me about difficulties on the Warsaw-Radom line. I feel sorry for commuters waiting on rain-lashed platforms staring in their apps at icons of trains halted indefinitely at some remote halt between Warka and Dobieszyn.
Meanwhile, I am feeling jittery as a result of the situation going on in Putin's head. A thug, a bully, an evil, soul-less animal, threatening millions of people with death. Things could kick off at any moment, and if they don't, it's still going to be on absolute knife's edge until Putin's last dying breath. He'll be ratcheting up the tension whenever he wants to - marching his troops up to the borders, keeping them there, making noises to unsettle and dismay peaceful populations. The sight of American and British military aircraft in the skies of Central and Eastern Europe, flying in military supplies, keeping watch on the Russian military build up gives me a certain degree of reassurance - much more that the waffle from German or French diplomatic missions to the Kremlin. As V. I. Lenin said: "If you push in the bayonet and feel mush - keep pushing. But if you push in the bayonet and feel steel - stop." Making concessions to a psychopath makes no sense. In the Prisoner's Dilemma, cooperating with an opponent who hurts you makes no sense - you respond with force. Putin knows this and is pushing the West to effect a split in the alliance.
Gas is his weapon; Gazprom 'a gas company with tanks.' My gas bill: end of 2021, price per kilowatt-hour: 1.01zł. Early 2022, price per kilowatt-hour: 2.01zł. Next gas bill likely to be in the order of 3,600zł (around £670). More reasons to be cheerful.
The Polish government is still behaving in an irrational way. Polski Ład (the Polish deal) - the government's flagship tax reform programme - has gone awry, it is deeply unpopular even with the electorate it is trying to buy. The government is also winding up the European Commission on rule of law. Poland could end up being many billions of euro out of pocket if the government doesn't back down.
Spring is still a long way off. Another six weeks until April comes; assuming it's a nice one (latest snow-on-ground from my 25 years' experience in Warsaw was 4 May back in 2011). The days are getting longer; the sun goes down an hour and half later than the year's earliest sunset. Gone is the snow cover, the ice on the ponds - winters are getting milder and milder. Winds are getting stronger, winter storms more frequent. And yet people don't seem to see it and aren't changing their ways; driving their idle arses a few miles in their SUVs to their offices in town. To paraphrase the Dead Kennedys, it's not so much 'Give me convenience or give me death', it's 'Give me convenience or kill off the entire planet and everyone on it'.
Covid is still here - the new cases are on their way down from the peak of the fifth wave (the fifth! I predicted a mere three waves when the pandemic began); deaths, however, refuse to follow. Poland is still seeing around 250 people a day dying from the disease.
Lent is around the corner - starting on Ash Wednesday, 3 March. I look forward to this time of cleansing and spiritual introspection; I just hope it will not be marred by a bloody war, an invasion of a peaceful country neighbouring Poland. Or by Covid. Or by the stupid Polish government telling Brussels to shove all its money destined for infrastructure and green transformation.
Reasons to be cheerful? Not many right now.
This time last year:
Starting my 30th Lent
This time two years ago:
Grey February dusk; buzzing Warsaw
This time three years ago:
Skierniewice-Łuków line modernisation announced
This four years ago:
Entropy and anti-entropy in a constant-ruled universe
This five three years ago:
Truth, spin, bullshit and lies
This time six year:
How much spirituality do we need?
This time nine years ago:
The Chosen Ones
This time ten years ago:
Fixies in the snow
This time 13 years ago:
Just the ticket
I feel jittery too. An insightful piece of analysis suggested that Putin's end game is to delay the move towards green energy, which would go faster driven by a unified EU. It feels like the US is just telling the Ukraine to make whatever so-called peace Putin offers, leaving the EU on its own. In the UK Johnson blusters, grateful for anything that distracts from 'Partygate', escalating energy prices, and tax rises to plus the Treasury's Brexit-driven gap in revenue. Meanwhile the Brexit gang has turned to a new cause: turning the British people against spending money on achieving net zero - again they are Putin's useful idiots. Our immediate surrounds seem bleak. But we wade through fog, and that can clear if sufficient good people try.
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