Forecasts past and present

This time last year, I made some macroeconomic forecasts for 2012. On some, I was insufficiently pessimistic (I forecast Poland's GDP to grow by 2.0% in the year to Q3, it actually grew by a mere 1.4%), some over-pessimistic (unemployment in November was 12.9% compared to my forecast of 14.5%, while inflation at 2.8% in November was lower than the 4.0% I'd forecast). Similarly, the UK and the eurozone showed lower inflation and lower unemployment than I predicted. But I was overly pessimistic about GDP in both cases.

Note: Polish unemployment figures include a fair few who are economically active (in the grey economy) yet sign on to maintain state healthcare benefits. Eurostat's figures for Poland show unemployment running at 10.4% - which suggest that around one-fifth of Polish claimants are abusing the system.

While the zloty proved remarkably stable during the course of 2012, it ended the year stronger against both the pound (5.00 rather than 5.15 forecast) and against the zloty (4.10 rather than 4.20). I got the euro to the pound spot-on (1.22). Weather - I was right about the early snow, wrong about a white Christmas for Warsaw (just dirty left-over snow, but no fresh falls).

So then... my quick calls for 2013...

Key economic indicators: Poland
	2012 (latest data)	2013 (same time this year)
GDP growth	1.4% (Q3)	0.8% (Q3)
Unemployment	12.9% (Nov)	13.8% (Nov)
Inflation	2.8% (Nov)	2.6% (Nov)

Key economic indicators: UK
	2012 (latest data)	2013 (same time this year)
GDP growth	0.1% (Q3)	0.8% (Q3)
Unemployment	7.8% (Sep)	7.5% (Sep)
Inflation	2.7% (Nov)	2.5% (Nov)

Key economic indicators: Eurozone
	2012 (latest data)	2013 (same time this year)
GDP growth	-0.6% (Q3)	-0.1% (Q3)
Unemployment	11.7% (Oct)	11.9% (Oct)
Inflation	2.2% (Nov)	2.4% (Nov)

All in all, I do not share JP Morgan's prediction that 2013 will be 'the first post-crisis year'; I think the global economy will continue bumping along the bottom, and that Poland will have a harder time next year than either in 2012 or indeed 2014. Cheers!

I predict that the EU 2014-2020 budget will somehow be cobbled together in a messy compromise around February, and Poland will do well out of it, with €70 billion earmarked for structural and cohesion funds.

And currencies - on 31 December 2013, I predict 1 GBP will be 5.22 PLN, 1 EUR will be 4.32 PLN, and 1 GBP will be 1.25 EUR.

I will not bother predicting the weather - it's become way too unpredictable!

This time last year:
Economic predictions for 2012

This time two years ago:
Classic cars, West Ealing

This time three years ago:
Jeziorki 2009, another view

This time four years ago:
Jeziorki 2008, another view

This time five years ago:
Final thoughts for 2007