I realised that hopes of preventing Brexit were dashed the moment Farage announced that the Brexit 'Party' Co. Ltd. would not be standing against incumbent Conservatives, across their 317 seats. This meant that on those constituencies the pro-Brexit vote would not be split. Yesterday's parliamentary elections in the UK were a straight choice between Brexit and Marxism. Corbyn's Labour got the pounding it so richly deserved. The lowest number of Labour seats since 1935; the first time that a party in opposition for over nine years actually lost seats. An utterly useless, shameful, Brexit-enabling performance.
So what next? Johnson has a 80-seat majority in the House of Commons, easily enough to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through Parliament and the UK formally out of the EU by 31 January. (Failure to so, it should be remembered, will lead to a no-deal crash-out).
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill is the easy bit. The hard bit will be to complete an economic Free Trade Agreement and the political Future Relationship Agreement. These will be hard because time is tight. Johnson might be celebrating today, but soon the reality will dawn. The transition period, which follows immediately after the UK leaves the EU, finishes on 31 December 2020. The very same day it was due to finish had Theresa May managed to secure a Brexit on 29 March this year. Unless extended (again, with the agreement of all 27 EU members plus the UK), the transition period will be nine months shorter than anticipated in Article 50 - and all the detailed stuff will need to be worked out during that time. It will need to be done hush-hush, away from the tabloid headline-writers.
If Brexit can no longer be stopped, it needs to be as economically and politically mild as possible. A cold not a flu nor chronic bronchitis. One that does not lead to dismemberment.
I do have faith in Her Majesty's institutions - in the Civil Service - to do the right thing, to provide the right advice, to ensure no cliff-edge, no unexpected no-deal scenario suddenly popping up. Remember - the Civil Service has done right up to now. Yellowhammer. The Civil Service will not allow the UK to be flushed down the toilet by zealots. Wise negotiations leading to a trade agreement that allows for bilateral trade with the minimum of extra red tape or tariffs. And a political agreement that keeps the UK as close as possible to the EU. For the good of all parties.
Remember, Putin has been aggressively pushing for Brexit from the outset. His agenda is to splinter the West, exacerbate divisions. Putin's trolls will undoubtedly still be militating for a no-deal Brexit to happen somehow, and to break up the United Kingdom.
This time two years ago:
Kick out against change - or accept it?
This time four years ago:
Warwick University alumni meet in Warsaw
This time five years ago:
Pluses and minuses of PKP InterCity
This time six years ago:
When transportation breaks down
This time 11 years ago:
Full moon closest to Earth
As you say, what a poor selection to choose from. And the existential threat of climate change kicked into the long grass again - an issue that the UK seems to share with Poland. I'm really disappointed at the lack of a sensible pragmatic long-term centrist alternative in the UK.
ReplyDeleteThe UK has a decent balance of payments surplus with the US - almost uniquely for a net importer - which will be a target during trade deal negotiations. And no one approach can satisfy the EU and the US. Make one happy, and the other will punish the UK. Of course our hard-of-thinking population didn't consider that.
Putin and Trump must both be laughing at us...
Michał, you say a 39 seat majority at the time of posting your blog at 17.47 (16.47 UK time). Now that most of the results are in, that figure might need to be adjusted slightly.
ReplyDeleteBest,
A
@adthelad
ReplyDeleteThanks - forgot to update.
@WHP
Totally agree.