Now what? Probably neither a descent into fascism, nor a great national revival. It's down to the British Civil Service to keep life normal. My distrust of politicians, my cynicism towards their cynicism, is born of the past four and half years. But here we are, 67 million people trying to get on with their lives in a different climate. May it not be as bad as predicted by some.
Below: flying in. The Thames cuts across, with Cube Ridge carrying the A205 South Circular that snakes its way down to the bottom of the frame. North of the Thames, the dark patch is Gunnersbury Park, Ealing is in the top-left corner of the frame.
Below: the following morning - Cleveland Park, drying out after a heavy fall of overnight rain.
Below: essential suburban London; Perivale Gardens W13. Where once might have stood a Hillman or an Austin, there's now a Nissan and a Mercedes.
Below: the River Brent is brim-full, after last night's heavy rain. Here it flows, the border between Perivale to the left and Ealing to the right.
Below: the mighty Western Avenue slicing communities apart with ceaseless traffic. This might look like a weekday rush hour, but it's actually Sunday lunchtime.
Below: across the A40, north of the Central Line, a more rural scene, surrounded by suburbia; Horsenden Hill Lane North meets Horsenden Hill Lane South.
Below: climbing Horsenden Hill - a useful amenity for walkers.
Below: suburbs rising. Looking out south-west from the top of Horsenden Hill towards Southall and Hayes.
Below: portrait of a tree, on the northern slope of Horsenden Hill. In the distance, Harrow spreads out up the next hill.
Prayers for the nation please.
This time three years ago:
IT frustrations
[And right on cue, my Huawei smartphone battery starts dying, aged three years]
This time four years ago:
Wałbrzych's Gold Train - the dream ends
This time six years ago:
Kitten football
This time seven years ago:
The drainage of Jeziorki
This time eight years ago:
The Eurocrisis - what would Jesus do?
This time nine years ago:
Orders of magnitude
This time ten years ago:
Jeziorki in the snow
This time 11 years ago:
Better news on the commuting front
This time 12 years ago:
I no longer recognise the land where I was born
Thinking further, Michael, no-one tried to sell Brexit as anything other than easy. "Just vote 'leave', your leaders will fix some trade deals (with the foreigners falling into line), and you'll have more money in your pockets."
ReplyDeleteWhen Britain was faced with an existential threat, Churchill told the population how hard life would become. "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat". At the time, he was not popular. (Churchill believed that he only felt he had the full support of parliament after the French fleet was shelled on his orders at Mers-el-Kebir.) Not popular, perhaps, but honest.
Now, in contract, a population - many of whom are unproductive, unthinking and entitled - have been told that the way ahead will be easy. Every party sold some version of this myth. Whoever they had elected, the population would be disappointed, if not succoured with a greater myth that deepens their deception.
Improving living standards is a complex problem (one which involves people, beliefs, relationships and the like) as well as complicated (which is a essentially technical issue). It isn't simple, and pulling a few economic levers won't achieve much. This is the core of the lie.
After the words that I quoted above above, Churchill said: "...with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us." Nowadays hardly anyone seems to believe in anything. Now an unspiritual generation seeks material gain for no more effort than placing a vote. They will be disappointed: for what good can come without effort? Without moral purpose? Indeed, without a moral revival?
@WHP:
ReplyDeleteYou are right about the word 'purpose'. The woke generation gets it; give it 15-20 years and they will have greater power at the ballot box. But Brexit (rejoining the EU) will be a secondary issue - fighting climate change will overtake concerns about the economy, the constitution or inequality.
With Brexit Churchill had it right. This is not the beginning of the end but just the end of the beginning.
ReplyDeleteNot only negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU (with 27 separate national agendas) but also all the other countries where Britain is covered by EU trade deals. And all with a demotivated Civil Service.
@AndrzejK
ReplyDeleteMy predictions:
1) Johnson will leave the negotiating to the grown-ups, to be conducted without too much public gaze. Right now, his biggest Brexit-related fear is the ERG and Brexit Party headcases braying on about 'surrender to the EU' and 'vassal state' etc while the professionals are doing their best to reach a sensible agreement.
2) The Civil Service now has its work cut out; the shenanigans (Operation Yellowhammer, £50m No-Deal ad campaign) are over, now it's all about minute detail - some 800 things to sort out from Euratom and Interpol to roaming and open skies. And a Political Framework on top of it all.
3) Scotland will be the one to watch. Johnson will have to mollify the Scots with all sorts of promises to ensure there's no IndyRef2, official or unofficial.
4) With Corbyn promising to hang on for another four months, Labour has consigned itself to ten to 15 years of opposition; it might never return to power in anything like its even its pre-2010 format.
In 15-20 years the climate situation will more obviously be an emergency. With less time (or no time!) left to address it.
ReplyDeleteExperts can try to negotiate the detail, however it's a complex problem: the terms negotiated with one nation (or bloc) will influence the terms negotiated with others. Treating this kind of problem as complicated (i.e. essentially technical) leads to problems. Policy is needed, followed by strategies: this isn't a portfolio of projects. And all this takes time.
It might be argued that Conservative England would benefit from Scotland becoming independent: no need to subsidise Scotland; an unassailable parliamentary majority guaranteed at every election; the ability to create a more compact economic unit. I wonder why the English right doesn't jump at the opportunity?
One wonders what form of opposition the UK needs? I'd favour technocrats who can explain problems and find practical solutions. Indeed, addressing the climate emergency requires this. I'm interested in your thoughts, Michael.
@WHP
ReplyDeleteI'm against coercion in general - governments bullying people to take action. I believe rather in 'nudge'. People's attitudes change. Getting into a car pissed is no longer socially acceptable. I would argue that it's this fact, rather than sanctions if you get caught, that have made the difference.
The Swedes have invented the word flygskam (flight-shame); this will catch on. I'm mindful of the effect that my frequent flying has on the environment. Now me dear old dad is dead, I will not be flying to the UK so often, but still one must. One day the Warsaw-London journey will be doable by train without having to take the best part of a day and with three legs to the journey. This is where governments should intervene - support public transport massively, to make car-driving and short-haul flying something rather stupid, given the quality of the alternatives.