How do I see the Universe unfolding? How do I see our planet, our species, unfolding? Pretty much as it has been doing so far. Only faster! I am an optimist. From the cosmos expanding at ever-faster speed, the space between galaxies getting bigger thanks to 'dark energy', whatever that is - to the accelerating tempo of human technology... but are we getting wiser? Russia's brutal aggression in Ukraine, which seems to have the backing of most Russians, reminds us that human progress is two steps forward, one step back.
Will humanity ever rid itself of the capacity to do evil? And if so (I believe the answer is yes), will this happen because of an intervention (genetic modification), or are we capable of willing our own progress? Here, I'm not so sure. Humans are smart, but not smart enough.
One of our greatest discoveries has been that of win-win. When we all get on with each other in some form of concerted cooperation, we advance far faster than in a might-is-right zero-sum struggle.
The Network will triumph over the Hierarchy; our tendency to choose (or tolerate) ego-driven narcissists as leaders is petering out as we see from example to example that this doesn't work well for the nations that choose (or tolerate) them. Once Kim Jong-Un falls, it is most likely that North Korea will select a form of governance that precludes any future dictatorship. The gulf in living standards and health outcomes between North and South Korea is proof that there are objectively better and worse systems; the gulf between Russia (which unlike North Korea is blessed with natural reserves of raw materials) and the EU will be showing a similar dynamic.
I have written many times about longevity and how we are on the brink of a series of technological breakthroughs in medical science that will extend human lifespan greatly. I am also optimistic about human demographics - by the middle of the next century, we may well be living on a planet with a stable (or even slowly shrinking) population of around five billion. Middle-class lifestyle across Africa and other currently underdeveloped parts of the world will lower fertility rates to a sustainable level. Discomfort will have been eliminated; the bigger problem will dealing with those egos that demand luxury, unable to content themselves with mere comfort. The outrageous carbon footprint of the luxury lifestyle - regular long-haul flights, ocean-going yachts, palaces etc - remains a threat to our planet's climate.
To what extent will we be able to self-regulate ourselves towards net-zero? It will be more stick than carrot, I fear. But, by the skin of our teeth, I believe we will escape cooking ourselves to death. As a group, we may be complacent, lazy and stupid, but faced with the clear prospect of extinction, we will be prepared to sacrifice convenience for the long-term future of the planet. The longer we leave it, the more extreme the measures imposed upon us will have to be.
An important question we face is - are we alone in the Cosmos? Is intelligent alien life here among us? On balance, I believe that we are not alone; governments know this are are preparing society for disclosure. Slowly but surely. What impact will this have on us - on our science and technology? On philosophy?
And here we must reflect. I believe that it is far too early in our development for us to have direct contact with technologically advanced alien species. We are simply too primitive to gain from the experience. If anything, some clues in the field of renewable energy would be useful for us at this point in human development, but its something we will have to work out for ourselves.
I do believe that our ultimate destiny is to become a space-faring species; to do this properly requires an understanding of physics that we do not yet possess - and an understanding of consciousness that we have yet to evolve. And with it, a spiritual enlightenment, and a rejection of reductionist materialism.
This time two years ago:
Our own way to God
This time two years ago:
Fancy a drink?
This time three years ago:
Klimat change
This time seven years ago:
Wes Anderson's Central Europe (Grand Budapest Hotel)
This time ten years ago:
The Reader
This time 11 years ago:
Fertile ground for conspiracy theorists
This time 12 years ago:
That's what I like about the North
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