Britain changes course

Up for much of the night to watch the results of the 2024 UK general election. I went to sleep at quarter past two, woke up at half past four, then a nap between quarter past eight to wake at quarter to ten. Just over four hours of sleep then. But what a night.

This election can be characterised as the electorate punishing the Conservative government after 14 years in power; an anti-Tory rather than a pro-Labour vote. Sir Kier Starmer's Labour party won broadly rather than deeply. Its vote-share went up by a mere 1.6% from its pathetic 2019 performance under Corbyn, whilst the Tory vote-share plunged by 19.9% compared to 2019.

This was the biggest Conservative loss of all time ever – the worst result in the party's 190-year history, losing 250 seats, including many ministers. The Tories were mangled from every direction, losing seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, a process made easier by Reform splitting the right-wing vote.

The Liberal Democrats made their biggest gains ever, up from just eight seats to 71, the best Liberal result since 1926 on a vote-share of 13%. As a demonstration of how the UK's first-past-the-post voting system works, consider this: Reform won a 15% vote-share which yielded it only five seats, whilst the Green Party won four seats – but on a 7% vote share. The LibDems and Greens showed the importance on focusing on key battlegrounds, whilst Reform, by standing candidates in all constituencies, were clearly intending to damage the Tories as badly as possible rather than seriously attempting to win all those seats.

Turnout was low at 60% (down from 68% in 2019); opinion polls had for so long been predicting a massive Labour win (and massive Tory defeat) that many people might have felt little inclination to vote. Having said that, Labour's low vote-share can also be attributed to tactical voting. In many constituencies where Labour had little chance against the Tories, Labour voters cast their votes for the Lib Dems, and in constituencies where the Lib Dems had little chance against the Tories, Lib Dem voters cast their votes for Labour. This worked well for both Labour and the Lib Dems.

Scotland* decidedly turned its back on the Scottish National Party. Labour now have a massive chunk of Scottish MPs. The SNP was left with a mere nine of the 47 Westminster seats it had in the previous parliament. Wales is now without any Tory MPs, while in Northern Ireland Sinn Féin has become the largest party, not because it won more seats (it still has seven), but because the Democratic Unionist Party lost three and now only has five. This suggests that nationalist pressure in Scotland or Northern Ireland won't be a big worry for Sir Kier Starmer's government.

* Counting is still in progress in a remote Scottish constituency so the final result may change.

Wither the Tories?

If the Conservatives want to return to power, the party needs to move back towards the centre rather than towards the right. Extreme left-wingers Michael Foot (in 1984) and Jeremy Corbyn (in 2019) only served to turned moderate voters off Labour, extending its period in opposition. So analogously, if the Tories decide to turn further right in an attempt to scrape votes from Reform, they will only stay away from power longer. The stage is now set for a battle to decide whether the Tories want to return to centre-right moderation or veer in the direction of the extreme right. The shake-out of Tory MPs mean that the economic libertarian wing (Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jacob Rees-Mogg) are gone, helping the out-and-out migrant-bashing populists.

Below: the moment that Labour secured its 326th seat, thereby securing its parliamentary majority with  three seats swinging to Labour. Sir Kier Starmer is only the third Labour prime minister to have been elected to office in my lifetime – Harold Wilson in 1964 and Tony Blair in 1997 being the other two (neither James Callaghan nor Gordon Brown became PM by winning a general election).

The opinion polls overestimated the size of Labour's majority. Here are the last five surveys published before election day (final score: Lab 412, Con 121, LibDem 71). Just look at how wildly out the Survation poll of 2 July was! The IPSOS exit poll was far closer (Lab 410, Con 131, LibDem 63)

Don't mention the 'B' word

Asked by the Guardian whether he could see any circumstances where the UK rejoined the single market or customs union within his lifetime, Starmer said: “No. I don’t think that that is going to happen. I’ve been really clear about not rejoining the EU, the single market or the customs union – or [allowing a] return to freedom of movement.”

Those words were like a kick in the teeth to me. Had I read them a week earlier, I would not have cast my postal vote for Labour – for me, the UK's rejoining  the EU is my number one political priority when it comes to UK-Polish relations. I want a strong UK and a strong Poland in a strong EU. Preferably not one dominated by the Franco-German axis.

So – the new government has a massive task ahead. Without a return to frictionless trade with the world's richest trading bloc on its very doorstep, it's hard to see how the UK economy can grow enough to deliver the public services that Labour have promised the electorate. Also, worth bearing in mind that the Tories still have a working majority in the House of Lords.

This time last year:
Lawn to meadow, meadow to forest

This time four years ago:
Town and country in summer

This time five years ago:
Across the Pilica to Strzyżyna

This time six years ago:

West Ealing to Castlebar Park – waiting for Crossrail

This time seven years ago:
Trump flies into Warsaw

This time eight years ago:
Making Poland's railways safer

This time 17 years ago:
Lublin and the Road