The cost of Covid complacency

Being a bit of a spreadsheet nut ("if you can't measure it, you can't manage it"), I've been tracking the pandemic in Poland since the outset. One particular indicator I'm watching is the spread rate. Back in February, my brother alerted me to the maths of a pandemic; if the number of new cases doubles every day, then within a month every person in the UK would be infected. Yes, from one to 68 million within 25 days. So a daily doubling of cases = spread rate of 1.0. A doubling every second day = spread rate of 0.5, and so on.

As epidemiologists who were at the forefront of the battle against Ebola fever said, to stop a virus you have to act quickly and decisively. This happened in Poland, where the government announced a full lockdown with quarantine on 13 March, when the number of confirmed cases in Poland was 15 and total deaths from Covid-19 was just two. By contrast, the UK government vacillated. Advisors talking persuasively about 'herd immunity' and pub-chain owners protecting their revenues led to weeks of dithering; the UK finally locked down by the time the genie was out of the bottle - on 23 March with 6,650 cases and 335 dead.

The outcome is well-known. The UK went on to suffer more than any other country (apart from Belgium and Andorra) in terms of deaths per million (677). Compare that to Poland's 45 deaths per million (data from today from worldometers.info).

So things are good in Poland?

They were. 

Since lockdown, the spread rate in Poland tumbled. The daily spread rate in the two weeks before lockdown averaged around 0.5 (new cases doubling every two days). At that rate of transmission, everyone in Poland would have become infected by the middle of April. That didn't happen of course. By the end of March, the spread rate in Poland was down to 0.14. By the end of April, it was 0.03. This was peak-lockdown. By the end of May, it was 0.02. There was more progress in June, falling below 0.01, reaching a pandemic low of 0.006 on 5 and 6 July. That equates to a doubling of cases every four months, or 70,000 cases by 1 November.

But we've allowed ourselves to become complacent. "There is no pandemic," I heard a mask-less man telling his girlfriend on the platform of W-wa Jeziorki two weeks ago. Mask-wearing in shops means covering the chin; something done for the sake of appearance. Holidays, travel, things are pretty much back to normal. The economy too - in June, Poland's industrial production exceeded June 2019 levels!

The result of this complacency is that the spread rate has started to rise. This is now the third week in a row of rising spread rates. Today it reached 0.015. This means 70,000 cases by 21 August, a doubling of cases every three weeks rather than every four months!

This morning's numbers from the Ministry of Health look alarming, with 657 new cases recorded. That's more than ever, and is approaching the current levels in the UK (846 yesterday). Rising numbers of deaths will no doubt follow.

I have to announce that with great sadness I shall not be taking part in the Warsaw Uprising commemorations tomorrow. I had been looking forward to going to Powązki military cemetery and laying flowers on my uncle's grave, as my father had done in previous years. However, given the crowds, the number of elderly people likely to be attending, I can only see this as being harmful. I'm sure my father would have understood.

This time last year:

Uprising commemoration - Day Three

This time three years ago:
Ahead of the Big Day

This time four years ago:
Once in a blue moon

This time six years ago:
A return to Snowdon - Wales' highest peak

This time seven years ago:
On the eve of Warsaw's Veturillo revolution

This time nine years ago:
Getting ready for the 'W'-hour flypast

This time ten years ago:
A century of Polish scouting