"With foresight, I should have done – " Well, what? What should you have done? Done something different, I presume. Or done nothing and left events to take their own course. But how would that have worked out? How often do we make decisions – choice of studies, choice of partner, choice of career – on the basis of incomplete data? Our inability to see into the future means that we live our lives like the driver of a car with no windscreen, steering only by what we see in the rear-view mirrors and out of the side windows. Moving forward without data as to what lies directly in our path. We can only posit the the future on the basis of the recent past.
As I grow older, I am increasingly struck by the singular lack of public intellectuals that Get Things Right about the future. Whether its in politics, economics or science, even the brightest minds tend to overshoot and exaggerate or underestimate what happens next. (Clickbaitism emphasises this effect. Videos entitled "Why [insert name of country]'s economy is about to collapse" attract more viewers than "Why [insert name of country]'s economy is about to experience a mild market correction".)
We are, said biologist Michael Levin, "self-justifying apes". We all get things wrong. And then, after the fact, the winner is not so much the person who got it least wrong, but the person with the best justification for their prediction.
Here I'd like to touch on the role of intuition in guiding us towards the future. All the intellects on earth, all the analytical powers, can sift through potential scenarios; they can work through the known knowns, the known unknowns and guess the unknown unknowns – and still get it wrong. Even aided with AI, which can scrape all the data there is and feed back from it, but it cannot feed forward. Here's Imagen 3.0 AI, when prompted to draw a cartoon about the pitfalls of trying to predict the future.
But if one is open to the power of intuition, a inspired glimpse into the future can prove as accurate as that a forecast based on pure analysis.
Given the bind that theoretical science is currently in, as the physicalist/reductionist/materialist paradigm runs out of road, it would make sense to look more deeply at the role of intuition in forecasting our future.
The key thing: don't overthink it – intuit it.
Lent 2024: Day 19
Do we have Free Will (Pt III)
Lent 2023, Day 19
Intuition and Superstition
Lent 2022: Day 19
Between Randomness and Cause
Lent 2021: Day 19
Pleasure and Self-Denial
Lent 2020: Day 19
Balancing the Spiritual with the Material
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