Dreaming of the future

I dreamt this headline this morning (I just typed those words as the BBC newsreader spoke the words 'this morning'). Going to bed last night at half past nine, I rose today at half past five, the first thing I did was to jot these words before I forgot them. As soon as I'd fed the cats and made myself a coffee, I asked ChatGPT to produce me a photorealistic image of the headline of which I'd dreamt: 

{{ Having a hotel breakfast. I hastily pull the bread out of the toaster to spare it from being burnt. [Wow! I just typed the word 'burnt' as the BBC Farming Today presenter said the word 'burnt'!] This is a square slice of rye bread, crumbling at the edges. I try to communicate telepathically with the bread, but other than a faint spark of gratitude from it, I'm not getting anything meaningful other than this headline. }}

Logically, by asking the question, the piece of bread in the AI-powered toaster is already sentient. And I'm now asking myself whether I'm imbuing artificial intelligence with the ability to infect matter with sentience.

I seem to be receiving fewer and fewer 'meaningful' dreams than I did; my bedside dream-diary gets fewer entries. But this morning...

Below: sunrise with Scrapper. A short pre-breakfast stroll to catch the dawn. After the cats had eaten, only Scrapper showed any desire to go out for a walk with me.

This time three years ago:
Winter's on its way

This time eight years ago:
Kolej grójecka by Bogdan Pokropiński

This time ten years ago:
PIS, thinking wishfully about the village

This time 12 years ago:
An unseasonably warm autumn in Warsaw

This time 13 years ago:
Shedding light on an unused road

This time 14 years ago:
S2-S79 Elka from the air 

This time 15 years ago:
Fish and chips in Warsaw

This time 16 years ago:
Spirit of place – anomalous familiarity moments 

Prophesy

For a species that communicates instantaneously, that has access to the sum of human knowledge accessible at a few strokes of the keyboard, we continue to be absolutely useless at foretelling the future. 

Why can't we just know when the next global war  or pandemic will break out? Or who'll be the next culturally significant rock'n'roller, head of state or iconic actor to pop their clogs*? What will be the value of the dollar at the end of this year? Will we get snow this winter? 

We don't like change, but we like it when things improve. Transitioning from a sub-optimal situation to a better state of things is never easy, but with hindsight, we see that the change had indeed been worth it. And yet the introduction of something good and new often carries with it other changes that are not so good, or ones that no one even considered as that change happened. Think of the end of communism in Poland and its neighbours. 

Because we're so utterly hopeless at predicting outcomes, because the systems and systems within systems in which we live are so incredibly complex, unintended consequences of decisions made to improve things always go awry. Mathematically, the exponential rise of complexity leads to chaos. Human life was so much less complex at the time of the Oracle of Delphi.

As a species, we are actually good at history. We remember, we tell each other stories about our shared past and our heritage. We can grasp narratives, we can shape narratives. With the benefit of hindsight, we know why this war or that war was fought, why this particular economic policy turned out to be a failure, or why some product ended up being a far greater success on the market than anyone had dared predict. We can see past cause and present effect. But we can't see present cause and future effect.

History What-If is a popular genre, but ultimate a waste of time consuming it and a barren activity to produce. Working out what would have happened had, for example, Hitler died in the Wolf's Lair on 20 July 1944 brings no benefit. But Future What-Ifs – gaming out scenarios of possibilities based on the probability of their happening – along with all their possible consequences – is certainly worthwhile. But not obsessively. Finding the balance between gaming future possibilities and just getting on with it is key. Charging ahead into the future heedlessly is as wrong as overthinking every possible scenario and then getting paralysed by indecision.

Things seem to get worse quicker than they get better, or so it seems to us. Poland's improving quality of life is something that one sees clearly over the space of decades; it is harder to observe and quantify from one month to the next.** New infrastructure takes a long time to roll out; Warsaw West railway station being a good example (the underground passage between platforms was meant to have opened on 1 September, is now meant to open in 'September'. What's a few more days after nearly six years on the job? Still, once complete, it will be massively, wildly, better than the old station.

I started writing this blog yesterday, unaware that this morning, I'd wake to the news that multiple Russian drones have flown across Polish territory, an event that no one predicted last night. Once the news cycle gets cranked up, the pundits start to spout. I've come to learn that the best predictor of whether Poland's really in a bad place or whether this will all blow over is to look at the financial markets. The złoty barely budged against the euro, staying at the lower end of the 4.25-4.30 złoty band, where it's been since April. [For worriers: Putin's forces cannot seize Pokhrovsk, so going full-on against NATO is doomed to fail from the outset.]

Pundits are getting worse in predicting the future. Online algorithms mean that wild prediction ('Germany's Economic Collapse Is Inevitable', 'Xi Jinping Will Be Out Of Power By Next Month', 'The AI Bubble Is About To Burst', 'Congress To Disclose Alien Presence On Earth At This Week's Hearing' etc) get more views than more rational forecasts. The pundits offering such clickbait predictions may ruin their reputations in the long term, but in the meanwhile, they get the clicks, sell their books, monetize their platforms and become household names.

If you can't nail down the future empirically, using all the tools of rational logic – deduction and induction, extrapolation and interpolation – coupled with our recent ability to crunch vast amounts of data, then metaphysics – intuition – is the only way forward. And ward off truly bad things from happening by considering them, and then expressing gratitude when they don't happen. And not getting complacent.

* Robert Redford as it happens, six days later.

** Something I wrote in January 2019:

"Walking the same West London streets that I walked over 50 years ago, I've seen old familiar things disappear and new things taking their place. The cars. The Austin A40s and Vauxhall Crestas were replaced by Hillman Avengers and Ford Granadas, then those by Golf GTIs and Toyota Carinas, and now Nissan Jukes and Audi Q5 take their place. Road signs, street lights. High-street shops change. Dolcis, Tru-Form and Woolworth's have gone. The people that inhabit these streets change. Their clothes, even their smell. We've become more hygienic. Newcomers – at first from the former colonies, then from the Continent. Things change; if we're not aware of these imperceptible small changes as they happen, their loss can breed a longing for the past. This subconscious longing, when linked to resentment stemming from the lack of success in one's life, can make one susceptible to false myths peddled by populism. How we deal with the unfamiliar is problematic. Some of us are open to the new, we're curious, we don't feel threatened by change. Some of us are closed to it. And with that come dangers."

This time seven years ago:
Comfort comes in layers

This time eight years ago:
Preference and familiarity

This time nine years ago:
A long day in wonderful Wrocław

This time 11 years ago:
Putin will not heal Russia's tortured soul

This time 12 years ago:
Opole, little-known town

This time 13 years ago:
Raise a glass to Powiśle 

This time 15 years ago:
Mud, rain and local elections 

This time 17 years ago:
There must be a better way (commuting woes)

How we look at the future

It struck me as I was walking northward along the road to Michalczew. Walking (as one should) facing the traffic, I could see the back of three road signs ahead of me. All of them triangular – warning signs. And then I imagined the following scenario...

You're driving a car with no windscreen. Just a solid metal panel in its place. All you can see is what's behind you and to the side of you; the image in the rear-view mirror and the two images in the wing mirrors; you can also see out of the side windows. You are driving forward, very slowly, along a long, straight road. The last few kilometres had all been all straight, nothing you can see behind you, or to the left or right of you suggests that the road ahead (which you can't see) won't also be straight. You pass a triangular sign. You can only see the back of it. You know it's a warning sign because of its shape – but what's it warning you of? You can't tell. Then a second triangular sign appears in your mirrors – and then a third. 

Some danger is clearly approaching. But what it is, you can't tell. You slow down anyway, and concentrate your entire attention on what you have just passed. Can you observe any patterns? You look left. You look right. Is the kerb moving away from you? Or towards you? This would suggest that the road is starting to bend one way or the other, and that you'd have to turn the steering wheel appropriately – and slow right down.

Such is our view of the world's unfolding timeline. 

The current scientific view of spacetime – the Einsteinian paradigm – defines our reality in four dimensions – three spatial dimensions and one temporal dimension. But time is the odd one out in this quartet. We can move up or down along the Y axis; left or right along the X axis; and backwards and forwards along the Z axis. And at variable speed. But when it comes to time, we can only move directly forward through it, at a steady one second per second.

We can look in all directions spatially, but we can only see backwards in time. We remember our past; we can only guess our future. Our relationship with time, compared to space, is extremely limited. Metaphysically, I regularly have flashbacks (anomalous qualia-memory events that I recognise and connect with the past), but have yet to have a flashforward. 

I am minded of this when I receive, as I do at this time each year, The Economist's The World Ahead. Journalists, commentators and analysts weigh in to describe the key trends that will define 2025. Yet despite the brain-power that goes into this publication, it's often overtaken by events by the end of the first quarter of the year in question.

An innovation in recent years is the inclusion of a panel of 'superforecasters', who answer a series of geopolitical and macroeconomic questions relating to the year ahead. The weighted results of this poll is more accurate than the musings of individual experts showcasing a pet theory. The aggregated wisdom of the crowds, especially if the crowd consists of individuals outside of the big institutions, without commercial or ideological agendas, is more accurate. But only if the right questions are asked. Questions for 2025 are quite bland; China's inflation rate, Nvidia's share price, Germany's ruling coalition. That sort of thing. 

The Economist's superforecasters got four and half out of eight with their forecasts for 2024, correctly calling the UK election, continued conflict in Ukraine, no clash between China and the West, and no euro-zone recession. But global GDP growth outpaced their forecast of 1.5%-3%; they said Narendra Modi’s alliance would win at least 300 seats in India’s election (it won just 240); and they wrongly predicted a Democrat would win the US presidency. But beyond asking a panel of superforecasters, looking ahead at 2025, The Economist raises some interesting outlier possibilities; among that of a supervolcano exploding or a new pandemic, two are intriguing – a lost text from antiquity is discovered; and evidence of alien life is detected.

Here I'd like to touch on the role of intuition in guiding us towards the future. All the intellects on earth, all the analytical powers, can sift through potential scenarios; they can work through the known knowns, the known unknowns and guessing the unknown unknowns – and still get it wrong. But if one is open to the power of intuition, a inspired glimpse into the future can prove as accurate as that a forecast based on pure analysis.

The butterfly effect – one seemingly trivial incident leading to a major event through a cascade of causal links – makes it impossible to empirically plot a future timeline that will inevitably happen. Even the most powerful supercomputer, even Laplace's demon, is unable to write the news headlines for, say, 10 August 2025. This makes an intuition-led seer's premonition just as valid as any professional forecaster.

Given the bind that theoretical science is currently in, as the physicalist/reductionist/materialist paradigm runs out of road, it would make sense to investigate what's currently considered flaky woo-woo and look more deeply at the role of our intuition in gauging the future.

I'd suggest starting locally with some n =1 experiment, to see whether we can intuit what happens to us over the next week. The key thing: don't overthink it.

This time last year:
First snow, 2023

This time two years ago:
The Algorithm of Fate

This time three years ago:
Non-local consciousness - science and spirituality

This time four years ago:
Fenced in at last

This time seven years ago:
Poznań's Old Market

This time eight years ago:
Brexit, Trump and negative emotions

This time 13 years ago:
Premier Tusk's second exposé

This time 14 years ago:
Into Poland's former Heart of Darkness

This time 15 years ago:
Commuter schadenfreude

Notes To A Future Me, Pt I

Notes To A future me? The future me? Some future me? Each variation of that sentence has different connotations; to each one can be attached different metaphysical interpretations. Definite or indefinite? I choose indefinite. Singular or plural? I choose singular. So from the outset, I am assuming the notion of an individual - not communal - spiritual journey from Zero to One.

Why? I base this notion on a lifetime of fleeting conscious experiences - qualia memories that allude to a past life; memories rooted outside my conventional biography. Conscious connections to another time, another place, that are consistent and familiar. 

Let me start by picking apart the word 'me'. To whom I referring? A metaphysical experience that extends beyond the biological 'me' - that's the me, Michael Dembinski, son of Bohdan and Maria, born 1957. I am not looking for a future version of my ego - no; my ego shall extinguish along with my body. Rather, it's the eternal 'me'; the consciousness that experiences those qualia - subjective and personal - the memories of which form the continuity of who I really am. 

For it is this that I consider to be the essence of the Eternal Soul. A consciousness that travels along time's arrow from past to future, passing through an infinite number of biological hosts along the way, always evolving in spiritual terms. 

Yet how this process works, how it can be explained in human terms, is beyond my intellectual grasp. I strongly intuit, however, that this is my life's purpose - to get just a few steps nearer to an understanding of the reincarnative nature of consciousness in this lifetime. And I do feel that over the years that my focus, and my understanding, is being honed.

So my assumption is that as has happened before, following the bodily demise of Michael Dembinski, my consciousness shall endure; though in what form - and in what place, and what time, is not something I can predict. 

Though can I will my future incarnation in any direction?

I would wish to be reborn neither into suffering, nor into privilege. Neither states are conducive to contemplation of the numinous. Suffering is a state from which one struggles to escape - doing so becomes an all-engaging activity; abstract ontological questions are crowded out. But a life of luxury also stifles philosophical enquiry. A middle way, devoid of discomfort and of luxury, is required.

A future incarnation must have purpose - seeking and unravelling further clues, answers to which will lead to further steps along the infinitely long path from Zero to One. But we cannot expect the answer to the deepest questions of cosmic existence in this lifetime nor in the next; for this will only come at the end of time.

As humans, biological entities, we are driven by biological imperatives - which at the core are reproduction and hierarchy. Basic mammalian biology lies behind the human drive to attain and display material status. But the chasing of material possessions beyond the comfort level - luxury for its own sake - is something we all need to be aware that we are doing.  And such behaviours should be shunned for the good of the soul - as well as for the good of society and the environment.

An ascetic life, focused on the acquisition and dissemination of knowledge and wisdom, should be the purpose. Wisdom for wisdom's sake - not for the sake of material wealth, power, privilege or popularity.

Bumbling through a world of ever-increasing complexity, I am aware that an ever-higher level of intelligence is needed just to make sense of it all, not to be fooled by those who wish to dupe us for their own egotistical ends. We are evolving within evolutionary intellectual arms-race; no longer is sheer brute force enough. In the present, and even more so in the future, the cunning, the clever and the quick will overcome the physically powerful. Evolution increasingly favours the smart, not the strong.

What would I ask of a future bio-environment - a future human body - within which my consciousness could continue to evolve spiritually within an unfolding Universe tending towards its purpose?

I'd certainly be grateful for greater powers of focus - a longer, deeper, attention span, a brain that is less-easily distracted. A brain that can deal with mathematics beyond the basics, a brain that can understand and recall complex formulae. But then not just the number-crunching ability of IQ but a deep and accurate intuition. Is raw intellect as important as intuition? Are they separate?

As a species have so much more to learn about ourselves, our environment and the vastness of the Cosmos. It's not something we can get to intuit within a lifetime. And so, I believe, the future exists as a space for our eternal consciousness to inhabit, to return to, to evolve spiritually in.

More in this thread to come, over the years. I grow in understanding, as does science. Our model of the Universe unfolds along with it.

This time last year:
The End of Times

This time two years ago:
Going round in circles

This time three years ago:
Between wakefulness and sleep 

This time six years ago:

Hammersmith, on Thames

This time nine years ago:
In search of quintessential English countryside

This time ten years ago:
Behold and See - short story, Pt III

This time 13 years ago:
Another return to Penrhos

Intuition - Precognition - Divination - Lent 2023: Day 17

Today, I want to focus on precognition - being able to see into the future, being able to predict events that have not yet happened. Generally, I am sceptical of people advertising such powers, but I sense that on some small level they do exist. 

I see it this way: no one, but no one, in late summer 2019 was predicting a pandemic. No budget planner, no strategic forecaster had taken into their financial models or assumptions the fact that one would break out. By mid-autumn there was a possibility - especially since the first rumours were beginning to emerge from Wuhan in November of that year. By the end of January 2020, however, the probability of a pandemic was being taken seriously by governments and business. And by some astrologers who are now pointing out how prescient they were to predict a pandemic in January 2020. I would have been more impressed had they said that three months earlier.

Here, on the micro-scale is a little test. The time - 13:26 today, I'm in my kitchen clearing up after lunch, and happen to glance up through the window at the snowy scene in my garden and forest beyond. Unbidden, into my consciousness intrudes the following thought: "This is the last snow that will settle this winter." I check my phone weather app. Snow is forecast for Saturday night to Sunday morning, and from Sunday night to Monday morning; it is meant to be -2C on both nights. We shall see whether my pure intuition - perhaps guided by 25 winters' worth of experience in Poland - is right or wrong.

On the macro-scale, one intuition I recall from May 1979; it was General Election day. An intuitive moment flashed through me, again unbidden: "If the Tories win today, they will be in power for ages". They did and they were, winning four general elections and remaining in power for 13 years. Yet I cannot say that as a 21-year-old who did not follow party politics I had any kind of intellectual basis on which to have made that prediction - it was pure intuition, not the result of calculation.

One macro-scale intuition to test. When Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, I was naturally extremely worried, very concerned - yet my intuition told me that when it's all over, a better world will emerge.

These precognitive intuitions need to be felt as being pure, untinged by wishful thinking; they require sensitivity to receive, recognise and interpret. They cannot be called for or sought out - they come unbidden.

We humans live in a four-dimensional world; three spatial dimensions plus one temporal dimension. I've posited this before, but imagine a five-dimensional world where the three spatial dimensions are augmented by two dimensions of time rather than the one. Time can run left or right, as well as forward. While still a one-way arrow moving from past to present, it could loop around and come back on itself. Now imagine three temporal dimensions, where the arrow of time can move forward, left or right, and up or down. Again, with the possibility of looping around upon itself. Without having to call on time to run backward.

Extra temporal dimensions, should they exist, would theoretically give us the ability to experience the future from out of our past - a fascinating concept. Physically possible?

Let me now turn to divination - the practice of soothsaying. I turn to Wikipedia: "Divination (from the Latin divinare, 'to foresee, to foretell, to predict, to prophesy') is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic, standardised process or ritual. Diviners ascertain how the person asking the question should proceed by reading signs, or directly through alleged interaction with a supernatural agency."

Assume that someone has a gift, even weakly, in a hit-or-miss manner, but still more likely to be right than wrong in most cases. The next question will relate to process or ritual. In the Western world, we are familiar with card readings, palm readings and crystal-ball gazing. Each method has its rules and guidelines, but at the heart of these forms of fortune telling is the diviner. Some are skilled entertainers, able to draw on cues, using intellect and instinct rather than intuition. But I would not dismiss those who genuinely - sincerely - feel an awareness of different manifestations of the future. Those who quietly practice, ideally with no motivation of material gain, but do so for people's good, because they feel they have a gift.

I believe that over time, they can hone their sixth sense, and not only feel what possibilities might happen, but to be able to draw out of the future the better outcome for the person for whom they are divining.

This is all very tentative; it is not a supernatural power that I would claim to have to any significant degree. It is weak, but strong enough for me to recognise from time to time. Practice can improve performance, but I also hold that each successive incarnation of an 'old-soul' consciousness strengthens such skills from one lifetime into the next. I'd like to think that thousands of millennia from now, precognition, telepathy, remote viewing and telekinesis will become well developed in our descendants. Indeed, I intuit so. Prove me wrong!

Lent 2022: Day 17
Defining God

Lent 2021: Day 17
Karma - more than just social control?

Lent 2020: Day 17
Religion and Feeling Good

Welcome to the Age of AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) is here. Of course, it's been here a long time, but the launch in November of Chat GPT by Open AI, a software firm, has brought that message home with a WOW.

For me, playing with Chat GPT (note use of verb 'playing') reminded me of my first hours with an online search engine (AltaVista back in the mid 1990s) or discovering Wikipedia or Google Earth in the early 2000s or Google Map Street View in 2012 - I could see that these technologies would be life-changing. Today I think nothing of buying train tickets on my phone, using the map in the phone to navigate me from station to hotel, which was booked online. E-commerce is commonplace. Chatbots are replacing surly customer-service staff, machine translation has all but replaced humans in all but the most specialist areas. But AI has the potential to do far, far more - I hope this post will demonstrate how, and why.

Chat GPT is search taken a huge leap forward. Rather than typing in a question and being given many links to many pages, here you just type in your question and you get a concrete, detailed reply. Instantly. To demonstrate, I'll perform a live Q&A session here, an interactive dialogue between me and Chat GPT to show off its potential:

[Me:] How will Chat GPT and AI change the way we work:

[Chat GPT:] Artificial intelligence, including Chat GPT, has the potential to change the way we work in a number of ways. Some of the ways AI could change the way we work include:

• Automation of repetitive tasks: AI can be used to automate repetitive tasks, such as data entry or customer service, which would free up employees to focus on more high-value work.
  
  
• Improved decision making: AI can be used to analyze large amounts of data and provide insights that can help inform decision-making. This can lead to better, more data-driven decision-making across a wide range of industries.
  
  
• Increased efficiency: AI can be used to optimize and streamline business processes, which can lead to increased efficiency and cost savings.
  
  
• Better customer service: AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants can provide 24/7 customer service, which can help improve customer satisfaction and increase sales.
  
  
• Personalization: AI models and other tools like chatbot can be used to provide personalized experiences to customers, employees and other users, based on their behavior, interactions, feedback and other data.
  
  
• Predictive maintenance: AI can be used to analyze sensor data from equipment, predict when maintenance is needed, and schedule maintenance before a problem occurs, which can lead to reduced downtime and lower maintenance costs.

However, the adoption of AI in the workplace will also bring challenges. For example, it could lead to job displacement and require retraining of employees to be able to perform new tasks. Additionally, companies will need to address ethical and privacy concerns related to the use of AI.

[Me:] This whole 'job displacement' thing worries me. Whose jobs are most likely to be taken over by AI? (and could you answer using UK English, please?)

[ChatGPT:] It is true that the increased use of AI in the workplace has the potential to lead to job displacement, particularly for jobs that involve repetitive or predictable tasks. In the UK, jobs that are most likely to be taken over by AI include those in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, and customer service. However, AI can also create new jobs in the process of automation.

Jobs that involve tasks such as data entry, customer service, and routine financial analysis are particularly susceptible to automation. Some of the jobs which are likely to be impacted by automation include:

• Manufacturing and assembly line jobs, such as machine operators, quality control technicians, and logistics coordinators.
• Transportation and warehousing jobs, such as truck and delivery drivers, and warehouse workers
• Retail jobs, such as cashiers and shelf stockers
• Office and administrative jobs, such as data entry, routine financial analysis, and certain types of financial auditing
• Service jobs, such as fast food preparation, cleaning, and laundry service.

While some jobs may be automated, other jobs will be created in the process as new industries and technologies arise and as businesses invest in the development and maintenance of new technologies.

It's important to think about the adoption of AI in a holistic way, and consider the possibilities of re-skilling, up-skilling and creating new opportunities. While some jobs will be displaced, others will be created and requiring new set of skills and capabilities. Businesses and governments may need to work together to ensure that workers are prepared for the changes that are likely to come and that the benefits of automation are shared widely.

[Me:] So what will happen to the people who lose their jobs?

[Chat GPT:] The displacement of jobs as a result of AI and automation is a concern, and it is important to consider the potential impact on workers who may lose their jobs as a result.

When jobs are displaced by automation, some workers may need to be retrained or upskilled in order to be able to perform new tasks or work in new industries. This process of retraining and upskilling can be difficult and time-consuming, and it may not be possible for all workers to transition to new roles.

The government or other organizations may provide retraining programs or other forms of assistance to help displaced workers find new jobs or acquire new skills. Additionally, some organizations are also exploring the idea of a universal basic income (UBI) as a way of providing a safety net for workers who lose their jobs as a result of automation. UBI is a form of social security in which all citizens or residents of a country regularly receive an unconditional sum of money from the government, regardless of whether they have a job.

However, this is an ongoing debate and its implementation could have trade-offs. Transitioning to new roles will not be easy for everyone, it would require commitment and effort from both employers and employees.

Technological advancements can also lead to the creation of new job opportunities as well as increase productivity in existing jobs. New fields and industries will also arise, providing new job opportunities and requiring a new set of skills.

Overall, while the displacement of jobs is a concern, it's important to consider the broader economic and social implications of automation, as well as the potential for new job creation and increased productivity. It's also important for governments, employers and employees to work together to anticipate and prepare for the changes that are likely to come.

[Me:] Faced with the coming AI revolution, how should people prepare - in terms of skills, financially... should they invest in companies that are at the forefront of automation?

[Chat GPT:] As AI and automation continue to advance, it's important for individuals to consider ways to prepare for the changes that are likely to come. Here are a few ways that people can prepare for the impact of AI on the workforce:

Developing in-demand skills: As AI and automation take over some jobs, there will be a growing demand for workers with skills in areas such as data analysis, programming, and digital marketing. People should consider investing in their own education and training to develop these and other in-demand skills.

Continuously learning: Staying current with new technologies and updates is becoming more important than ever as the field of AI and technology is evolving rapidly. Individuals should be prepared to continue learning throughout their careers to maintain their skills and stay ahead of the curve.

Being adaptable: The future of work is uncertain and it is likely that many jobs will change, people should be open to new opportunities and be prepared to adapt to new roles and tasks.

Investing in their own business or projects: Some people may want to consider investing in their own business or project, which can provide them with more control over their career and financial future.

Investing in stocks or other assets: Investing in stocks or other assets, such as real estate or cryptocurrency, could help individuals to build wealth and prepare for the future. However, one should be mindful of the risks associated with any investment.

Building a diversified portfolio: It's also a good idea to have a diversified portfolio of assets and skills, so that you're not too reliant on any one industry or job. It will help you to be more resilient in case of any market changes.

Networking: Building a strong network of contacts in your industry and beyond can help you to stay informed about job opportunities and new developments in your field.

Note that investment carries risks and past performance does not guarantee future results. It's important to research and be informed before making any investments. Additionally, investing in stocks or other assets should be done as part of a well-diversified portfolio and under the guidance of a licensed financial advisor if needed.

Overall, the most important thing is to be aware of the changes that are likely to come and to take steps to prepare yourself for them, by developing skills and being adaptable, not just relying on one particular job or industry.

[Me:] Thank you. You failed on one question - I asked you whether you could write in UK English (rather than US English), and you though I was asking about the UK economy. What are the main differences between UK and US English?

[Chat GPT:]

I apologize for misunderstanding your question about using UK English. The main difference between UK and US English is in their spelling, vocabulary, and punctuation.

Spelling: There are many words that are spelled differently in UK and US English. For example, in UK English, "colour" is spelled with a "u", while in US English, it is spelled "color." Similarly, "centre" is spelled with a "re" in UK English and "center" in US English.

Vocabulary: There are also some differences in the vocabulary used in UK and US English. For example, in UK English, "lorry" is used to refer to a truck, while in US English, it is called a "truck". Additionally, in the UK, "biscuit" refers to what Americans call a "cookie" and "trousers" refer to what Americans call "pants"

Punctuation: In American English, quotation marks are often used for direct quotations, while in British English, single quotation marks are used. Additionally, in American English, punctuation goes inside the quotation marks, whereas in British English punctuation goes outside the quotation marks.

Vocabulary and Phrasing: Some phrasing and words are more common in UK English than US English and vice versa, for example "I'm just popping out" is common in UK and "I'm heading out for a bit" common in US.

These are a few examples of the differences, but it's worth noting that there are variations within each country as well, and even within different regions and groups within those countries.

It's important to note that both versions of English are widely understood and used around the world and it's not necessary to change the language usage to communicate effectively with the audience.

[Me:] It says on the top of the page: "We're experiencing exceptionally high demand. Please hang tight as we work on scaling our systems" How many people are looking at your page right now, and by when will you have completed scaling your system?

[Chat GPT]: I am a computer-based AI program and I do not have real-time information on how many people are interacting with the website or using my services and also as a model, I don't have access to the information or updates on website or system's performance or maintenance.

Regarding the message you mentioned, it is typically used as a placeholder message to inform users that there is high traffic on the website and the systems are currently under maintenance or undergoing updates. As a language model AI, I don't have the ability to access the information on when the maintenance or updates will be completed, it will be depending on the team who is in charge of the website or the service you're interacting with.

[Me:] I wonder how our chat will look like in ten years' time - do you think you will have achieved true consciousness by then?

[Chat GPT]: As a computer-based AI system, I don't possess consciousness or self-awareness. My capabilities and performance are based on the data and algorithms that I was trained on, as well as the rules and parameters set by my creators.

The concept of true consciousness in AI is still largely a topic of research and debate in the field of AI and cognitive science. While significant progress has been made in areas such as natural language processing, image recognition, and decision-making, achieving true consciousness in AI is a very complex and difficult task.

It is possible that in the next ten years, the technology and algorithms used to create AI systems will continue to advance and improve. However, achieving true consciousness in AI systems is still a long-term goal and it is not clear when or if it will be achieved. Additionally, there are also ongoing discussions and debates around the ethical and societal implications of creating truly conscious AI systems.

It's also worth noting that as AI advances, there is a ongoing discussion around explainability, transparency and accountability on the AI models and its actions. This can help to increase the trust and transparency of the AI systems.

It's important to have realistic expectations about the capabilities of AI systems and to consider the potential implications of their development. While AI has the potential to greatly benefit society in many ways, it's important to consider its limitations and to approach its development and use with caution.

[Me:] Thank you, pleasant and informative chat - speak soon!

[Chat GPT:] You're welcome, I'm glad I could help. I'm here to provide information and help with any questions you have. Don't hesitate to reach out if you have any more questions or if there's anything else I can assist you with. Have a great day!

****************

So there we have it. Worth a try. It's free, you just need to register (give your email address and create a password to log in). Glimpse the future here: https://chat.openai.com/chat . And definitely worth using it in a work situation; get the hang of it before your office colleagues do! 

This time last year:
What's new in Jakubowizna?

This time three years ago:
Policy responses to inequality

This time four years ago:
A Royal Visit to Warsaw

This time five years ago:
Transport news

This time six days ago:
Uneasy Sunny Day - smog

This time seven years ago:
Public media? State media? Party media?
[yet another year of not watching a single second of TVP]

This time eight years ago:
Beer, consumer choice and the Meaning of Life

This time nine years ago:
What's Cameron got against us Poles?
[whatever it was, it will have turned him into a utter loser in future history books]

The time 11 years ago:
Anyone still remember the Przybyl case?

This time 12 years ago:
Wetlands midwinter meltdown

This time 13 years ago:
Jeziorki rail scenes, winter

This time 14 years ago:
Winter drivetime, Jeziorki

This time 15 years ago:
Kraków, a bit of winter sunshine

Evolved consciousness

Imagine an intelligent species a million years more advanced than we Homo sapiens are right now. Multiply every year since H. sapiens became an industrial species by 4,000. How many more industrial revolutions could occur in that time? How many generations would be born, discover new things and die over the course of one million years, passing on their intelligence and wisdom to the future?

On the cosmic scale, a million years is like nine-and-half minutes out of a 24-hours day. The Big Bang happened 13.8 billion years ago; the Earth formed around 4.5 billion years ago; fossil records of the earliest life on Earth go back around 3.5 billion years ago. 

Yet for us humans, a million years is ten times longer than the time it took us to reach this point where we are now from the beginnings of behavioural modernity - when we began to show first signs of abstract thought, developing art, music and dance, and the use of blades to kill and butcher animals.

Imagine us a million years from now. Give it a try. Imagine that the human species has managed to pass through the Great Filter. We've not blown ourselves up with nukes, we've not boiled our planet dry, we've not killed ourselves of with an out-of-control biological or physical experiment. Or been smacked into extinction by an asteroid.

What would we be like?

What would any intelligent species one million years more advanced than us be like? Mere survival is not enough. The shark has been around for 320 million years and remains an unsophisticated aquatic apex predator, little changed over a third of a billion years - because it was so successful at what it was doing, it didn't have to. So a jumping-off point is needed - the use of sophisticated tools, the harnessing of fire. Fire led to cooking; cooked meats require less chewing; weaker jaw muscles circling the cranium enabled to the skull to grow; bigger cranial capacity - more intelligence. A virtuous circle. How will that virtuous circle spiral upward to further virtue in future evolution? 

My intuition says that we would be more angelic, less barbaric, less prone to anger, less lazy, vastly more intelligent, better able to cooperate (without cooperation we'd not be as technologically advanced as we are). Starting with anger. Reactive violence is far more prevalent among our nearest living relatives, the chimpanzee and bonobo. H. sapiens is less ready to lash out at the drop of a hat; instead of reactive violence, we have developed proactive violence - institutional, cold, premeditated, organised. 

I would like to see the propensity to anger squeezed out of the human psyche. We do need to be able, however, to deal with human evil in a firm, resolute way. We have part of the answer - the Prisoner's Dilemma, which teaches us to get along with everyone until the moment someone does the dirty on you - and then you hit them, and keep hitting them until they return to the path of cooperation. This worked on Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in 1945. The difficulty is in defining a) what constitutes a transgression and b) what the correct and proportional response should be. This is, however, a detail - though an important one. The crucial thing is that the moral arc of future human evolution continues to progress away from evil and towards good. We no longer bait bears or throw cats into fires for our amusement.

So far, I have been writing about the physical and mental development of humans as a species. But I really want to dwell on the future evolution of paranormal abilities.

Sceptics would argue that there are no such things as paranormal abilities. Proponents of the paranormal would say that they are - but can offer no real conclusive proof. Psychic researchers try to find these supernatural powers through experiments; many of us believe that there is something there. An intuitive feeling that mind over matter is real. An untestable hypothesis? My father's rhetorical question posed late in life - "why have I been so lucky" - is the clue - consciously wanting to be lucky is the answer. Not thinking "I want to be lucky" - but having an awareness of that desire.

I am assuming that mind over matter is real. A weak force, too weak to be recognised by the scientific method. But there, nonetheless. Could these evolve into something more powerful over thousands of generations? Genuine paranormal abilities manifesting themselves in greatly more intelligent, wiser, and longer-living beings - our future selves? 

We are developing the Internet of Things. Below is a smart price-tag powered by light. Not necessarily solar power - indoor light will do, thanks to the small perovskite cell, manufactured by Saule Technologies of Wrocław. A PKN Orlen petrol station in Piastów - is about to go live with a trial. Every item's price and stock code is stored in the cloud, and with a single keystroke, an operator can change the price on every shelf in every shop across a chain. And because these tags are powered by a renewable energy source, you don't have to change batteries every 18 months. Naturally, demand outstrips supply at this moment, but this (Polish invention) is the future of retail.

"You have the Internet of Things?" asks the Evolved Being. "We already have the Telepathy of Things."

Imagine being able to think price changes across the network instead of entering them via a keyboard connected to a computer linked to the cloud. "Prices? How second-millennium! We mutually intuit the subjective utility value of a product; the transaction occurs mentally." Imagine guiding machines by thought. But we don't have the physics! Give us a few more centuries, our physics will get there. The Ghost in the Machine. Mind-machine interface - wireless. Conscious management of objects.

I am slowly discovering the powers of my consciousness. Belatedly, but even so. They are weak, but they will grow in power from incarnation to incarnation. Biological and spiritual evolution happening together. 

This time two years ago:
Goodnight Belarus - may God keep you

This time seven years ago:
Motorbike across Poland to buy fine Polish wine

This time eight years ago:
Eat Polish apples, drink Polish cider

This time nine years ago:
Hottest week ever (37C likely to be beaten this week)

This time ten years ago:
Progress along the second line of the Warsaw Metro (now a normal part of city life)

This time 11 years ago:
Doric arches, ul. Targowa

This time 12 years ago:
A place in the country, everyone's ideal

This time 15 years ago:
I must go down to the sea again

A better tomorrow - science and technology

I have on my bookshelves comics from the 1950s and '60s in which from time to time, there'd be fascinating articles about the future. How, for example, by the year 1985, it will be possible to fly from London to Sydney in two hours thanks to nuclear-powered space tugs. We would all be flying to work in personal heli-jets.

Futures are all too often predicted on the basis on the present; if over the past three decades leading up to 1957 have witnessed amazing progress in aerospace technology (from biplanes to space rockets), surely that tendency can only be upward? Few paused to ask whether we need to be in the office (Arthur C. Clarke famously did, in 1964, quite accurately predicting remote work by 2014. ). 

The history of human technological progress is full of cases where an individual or handful of individuals could bring about a departure from the established arc of development. One sudden discovery or invention dramatically changes human progress. Some you can see coming, others you can't until they've happened. Who could have predicted the impact the smartphone would have on our daily lives when Steve Jobs launched the iPhone in 2007?

Black-swan events - entirely unpredicted, with a high impact - are also lurking in our predestined future. One I've been considering for a while has been disclosure by governments that our planet is being visited by advanced non-human intelligence, ushering in new paradigms in physics, cosmology and spirituality.

Healthcare

Let's look at healthcare; the technology that's just around the corner is gene therapy; having unravelled the human genome, the ability to fix faulty genes will make the treatment of rare genetic conditions easier, but it will also give a more targeted response to common ones such as cancer. The need for proper clinical trials, which can last upwards of eight years, is the main reason why advances in medical science are not swiftly turned into commonplace medical interventions. Fixing what's gone wrong is the main goal of medicine - one that will become far more important in future will be fixing what's natural - the ageing process. Genetic technology extending the human lifespan will, I believe, be well advanced by 2050. A bit more science-fiction would be a pill or process that can raise IQ. The benefit for humanity to raise the IQ of the lowest quintile by ten points would be massive.

The built environment

The construction industry has been slow to adopt new technology. I see three major developments - the first being digitalisation of the whole process, from design to use, based on building information modelling (BIM) or at least an easy-and-cheap-to-use version of it, perhaps augmented by artificial intelligence. Developer, architect, contractor and end-user should all have access (via the cloud) to all relevant files pertaining to a given building including 3D models, energy-use forecasts, instructions, guarantees and maintenance schedules. The second is modular construction, with prefabricated units being mass-produced in factories and delivered to site for assembly. The third is carbon-neutral construction. The CO₂ emissions the come from making concrete is critical; if we can manage to turn methane into four atoms of pure hydrogen and one atom of pure carbon (as graphene) and mix the graphene (in tiny amounts) with cement, the resulting concrete becomes much stronger and therefore not as much as needed for the same structure. The 5bn tonnes of cement produced each year thus account for some 8% of the world’s anthropogenic CO₂. Yet if less than 0.1% by weight of graphene is added to the mixture, concrete ends up 30% stronger. And stronger concrete means less of it is needed, with a consequent reduction in CO₂.

Energy

Fossil fuels are on the way out, natural gas being the last to be extinguished. Renewables will - in time - take over completely. Hydrogen may yet take over, but there's a long way to go; nuclear fusion is always 30 years away. In the meanwhile, I have high hopes in perovskite - a translucent crystal with photovoltaic properties. A Polish company, Saule Technologies, has developed the technology to inkjet print perovskite onto thin plastic film, which can then be applied to any surface turning it into a solar panel. Imagine sticking this to existing buildings - the demand is potentially huge. Speaking to the firm yesterday, they say that there's already demand that would justify building 50 factories to make the stuff. Just one property developer has five million square metres of space onto which to put perovskite film - there's a need for square kilometres of perovskite film every year. Far lighter than silicon panels, perovskite film can be cut to shape, wrapped around objects, tinted different colours. Once the money gets behind it, perovskite will go mainstream very quickly.

IT

The cloud will advance, gobbling up petabytes of data as it goes, sucking in government services, personal data and corporate computing. It will become cheaper, more secure and more effective all the while. AI is set to work on the data and AGI (artificial general intelligence) will emerge into the mainstream. One threat to cloud security will be quantum computing, in particular its predicted ability to crack open any encryption. The battle for quantum supremacy (one of the last things my father wrote down before he died in October 2019) will shape up between the US and China; the outcome could be geopolitically decisive. Will we get from artificial intelligence to artificial consciousness? This to me is an existentially crucial question. Either consciousness is merely something that emerges from complexity, and once there's enough computing power to get close to the number of neuronal connections in the human brain, computers will become sentient. Or - consciousness is a property of living things - computers are not living things, so no matter how powerful, they will never achieve true sentience. 

Computers will, I believe, increasingly interact with human biology. Goggles will be coming soon; once we accept how they will change the way we look, our workspace will no longer be the keyboard and screen, but a virtual keyboard and virtual screen, mapped out with our gestures. The concept of 'transhumanism' - using technology to augment human performance - is nothing new. The invention of the shoe, for example, several millennia ago, allowed Homo sapiens to move faster over rougher terrain in pursuit of prey. Glasses came into common use in 14th century Italy. If you wear shoes and glasses, you are already 'transhuman' in the strict sense. Elon Musk's Neuralink Corporation is developing a brain-computer interface. Yet we are already interfacing with data; our smartphones augment our memory (who remembers phone numbers any more?), and instant access to Wikipedia settles many a pub argument over, for instance, how many machineguns a Hawker Hurricane Mk IIb had. Whether we end up having computer memory plugged into our brain remains to be seen!

Human geodiversity - more predictions here.

This time six years ago:
Memory, place and experience

This time seven years ago:
UK Number One in world Soft Power rankings

This time ten years ago:
First flight from Modlin

This time 11 years ago:
Another cycle route to work

This time 14 years ago:
PZL M-28 and Piaggio Avanti - Okęcie regulars

A better tomorrow - human and economic geodiversity

I was lucky as a child to have travelled several time to the continent in the 1960s, holidays in Poland and France - with glimpses of life in Belgium, Germany and Czechoslovakia along the way. The differences were vast, even for a child, to see and feel and experience.

Just 22 miles across the Channel, France was entirely different to England; the smells (cigarette smoke from Galoises and mais Gitanes; the coffee-and-newsprint aroma of the café-tabac, wine cellars, fresh peaches, rotting fish in Boulogne and rural sewerage); the cars, (Citroëns, Panhards, Peugeots and Renaults driving on the other side of the road), the architecture of course - the typefaces even. Poland was even more exotic - though central Warsaw was relatively affluent, rural Poland was glaringly poor. Czechoslovakia was from another planet - huge red stars on the front of trams and trains, grim industrial town bereft of colour (Warsaw had bright neons), wet cobblestones and black Tatra cars scuttling about like gigantic trilobites. The things you could buy in shops in one country were completely different to those available in another - toys, for example. Warsaw's Centralna Składnica Harcerska was full of toys from across the Soviet bloc (mostly East German or Polish, as I recall); French shops stocked Norev toy cars, British shops had Corgis and Airfix.

Today, you can stroll through any European shopping mall (as I did through Galeria Mokotów) and without looking at the signage, it's hard to tell what country you're in, let alone what city. There's an Adidas, a Carrefour, a Chanel, an H&M, a Reserved, a Zara. The layouts are identical, driven by footfall algorithms. This homogeneity has been caused by globalisation and European integration, but I suspect that the future will see a reversal of this trend outside of our biggest cities, where corporations will hang on. Local character, local colour, local history and traditions and authenticity will be on a returning tide. The idea of going shopping in, say, Bydgoszcz and finding different shops selling different products to those sold in Białystok is appealing. A return to diversity - but within a borderless economic bloc. Will the same happen in the US - a nation of identical strip-malls coast to coast?

Here are my forecasts for how 2050 might well look across three sectors. Barring nuclear war or another deadly pandemic, or any other black-swan event. 

Food:
Locally grown, regionally traded. Artisan cheeses from French and Italian regions have long shown the way. Unique local tastes enjoyed across the continent. New specialities will emerge as a new generation of entrepreneur experiments with ingredients and techniques, seeking genuine innovation in taste. As meat becomes a luxury to be enjoyed sparingly, the gap it leaves behind will be filled by products as yet unknown - but far more likely to come from a local gastro start-up than from a corporation.

Produce will be as organic as possible, though with the knowledge that some pesticides are needed now and then. Human urine will make a comeback as a commonly-used fertiliser (lant - fermented urine, diluted one part to five with water). Brewing will return to being a local activity, with far less space for international brands that need transporting over long distances and mega advertising budgets. Same for mineral waters! New cultivars of fruit and veg will appear, products of human manipulation; old, forgotten ones will return. People from 2050 will look back at our time and wonder how we managed with so few varietals of the produce we ate. Regional distinctions, based on soil and climate, will be exacerbated.

Clothing:
Haute couture and fast fashion will be marginalised. Clothes will be designed to be durable and practical. Again, regional differences will begin to re-establish themselves. Old fabric, worn, but loved, shall be repurposed, authenticity and local provenance will win out over brands and labels. Clothes shall be washed less regularly - to save electricity, water and wear and tear on the fabric. Greys and browns, natural hues, will dominate - loud colours will be shunned as being 'old fashioned'. Craft skills will command premium prices, attracting more young people to acquire mastery in them. And tailors will mend and alter clothes, keeping them going longer. We shall still strive to have our own 'look' - but this will be less homogenous than it is today. 

Transport:
People will travel less, and walk more. Flying, in particular, will be seen as a shameful activity. Rail travel will become dominant mode of travel for inter-regional and shorter international trips, with massive investments in the infrastructure. Light rain and trams will make a comeback. Bicycles, electric bikes and scooters, will be the norm in cities, milder winters will help with this. There will be a strong classic car movement, dedicated to preserving surviving cars from history - but few amateurs will be interested in vehicles from the 2020s.

More predictions soon (healthcare, construction, energy, IT)!

This time last year:
Warka - small-town Poland's moving up

This time two years ago:

Summer działka joys

This time three years ago:

Local round-up

This time four years ago:
New Nikons on the way!

This time 10 years ago:
Work continues on S2, going under the railway lines

This time 11 years ago:
Stand Easy! - a short story

This time 14 years ago:
God Save The Queen - I mean it, Ma'am

This time 15 years ago:
Legoland, just outside Warsaw's borders

A better tomorrow - the lie of the land

Here are my predictions as to the medium-term future of (European at least) society in terms of economic geography. My base year is 2050, so only 28 years away - as distant to us today as 1994.

So - here we are, it's 2050. Our cities are hollowing out; populations are finding new a space in which to live - the near countryside. I'd define this as being still within comfortable reach of the city, a ring beyond today's exurbs - the ring's shape defined by rail networks radiating from each city. The more lines out of a given city, the broader the area that will experience this effect.

Covid-19 has served to accelerate the move towards remote work, working from home, and e-commerce with home delivery, parcel lockers and fulfilment centres also ironing out differences between the city and the sticks.

The remote countryside will have its enthusiasts, but this will be a hardy minority that chooses a more challenging life, three or more hours away from the nearest major city and its amenities.

An hour, an hour-and-half's journey time door to door by train into the city centre is sufficiently far away, and yet remains comfortably close for occasional visits rather than daily commuting. 

The city itself will endure - of course it will - but its role will be more focused. Conurbations of 500,000+ will act as governmental and corporate hubs, centres for regional and national authorities and big-business HQ and shared-service centres. Their reason for surviving is above all their role as a creative hub, where people get together to share ideas and generate new thinking. Universities, theatres and concert halls need a critical mass which doesn't exist in smaller communities. Administration itself can be distributed geographically. The experience of working from home suggests that routine tasks (at least the ones which won't disappear because of advancing technology) can be handled from anywhere. Creativity, however, burgeons when people meet in groups.

Business will change. The notion of sustainability will have sustained. While climate change remains humanity's biggest problem, sustainability will not have been eclipsed by more faddish notions. Investors' horizons will stretch further in time. Many large corporations that we know today will have disappeared, many others will have survived - mainly those that focus on the long term rather than on quarterly results. Shareholder pressure for profits and dividends will ease, again; short-term greed will be less powerful as a driver of corporate performance. A new generation will be content to live in comfort rather than striving for luxury, mindful of the environmental cost of a possessions-based lifestyle.

The presence of medium-sized businesses - strong in their local regions - will become more visible. They will take the place of corporations that no longer have a purpose.

 There are things that local enterprises can provide - food and shelter (agriculture and construction are suited to small teams), furniture, clothing. Craft skills will become popular - courses in carpentry, bricklaying, knitting. Making things, mastering tools and techniques. And not just making things - repairing things. The circular economy will have gained a foothold; the first generation to be materially worse off in absolute terms than its parents' generation will be far better off spiritually and mentally, having turned its back on conspicuous consumption and the economics of built-in obsolescence.

Imagine cars, refrigerators, laptops, being designed with a use-life of 100 years; modular construction with parts which wear out can easily replaceable or upgradable. Given that there are still many aircraft in active service with air forces around the world that are 50 or even 60 years old - this is possible from an engineering perspective. I believe that consumers will want to buy products with extremely long life-cycles, even if the purchase price is higher, total cost of ownership will be lower - with less damage to the environment.

There will remain many things that only the largest multinational corporations can provide - semiconductors, gene therapy or arrays of photovoltaic panels for example. Wherever economies of scale kick in, this is where the corporation will remain strong. Advanced manufacturing needs access to huge amounts of capital to develop new technologies. But whilst hardware will remain the preserve of larger firms, software can be written by small teams from anywhere. Corporations processing food - Kraft or Unilever, for example, or brewing, such as AB InBev - will find it harder to compete with nimbler local firms trading on regional traditions and authenticity.

We'll still need our storytellers and entertainers too - not bland, global megastars filling stadiums for hundreds of thousands of dollars a pop, but authentic local acts, relevant to their communities. People will want to go out - expect an upsurge in small restaurants, cafes and bars in small towns that today have few or none.

Tomorrow I'll look at a return to the diversity of human geography that I predict will happen - an antidote to the homogeneity of Europe or North America.

[See also How does a 'better tomorrow' look?]

This time last year:
New phone, new laptop

This time two years ago:
Longevity and Purpose

This time four years ago:
New bus stop for Karczunkowska

This time 10 years ago:
Who should pay for railways?
[How America built an electric railway line over the Rockies - over 100 years ago!]

This time 12 years ago:
Grunwald - the big picture

This time 14 years ago:
"Take me right back to the track, Jack"

This time 15 years ago:
The summer sublime

How does a 'better tomorrow' look?

If we assume that this planet has another two and half billion or so years before the sun swallows it and at least another billion during which it will be habitable here, there's still a hell of a lot of future ahead of us! 

But how will that future look - better than the past, worse - or the same (after all we're only human)?

Homo sapiens has only been around for around 300,000 years - not even one three-thousandth of the time still left for this planet. Literature - the written form of storytelling - has only been developing for 4,000 years. The Industrial Revolution began some 250 years ago. How much further can we evolve as a species during that billion years we have left, before we're forced to move on? Or will we kill ourselves with nuclear weapons or runaway man-made climate change within the next few hundred years?

I'm an optimist; I believe that despite setbacks, man-made or natural, we will prevail, we will evolve, we will eventually reach out beyond our planet, our solar system, and go on to colonise space.

Intelligence, wisdom and kindness will win out over barbarism and stupidity. The long march of the evolution of consciousness is destined to continue as the Universe unfolds.

This may seem unlikely right now, considering the current outbreak of barbarism and stupidity in the Kremlin, but progress is generally two steps forward one step back.

Born in England the 1950s, the biggest part of my life has generally been the experience of an upward arc of human progress - material, technological and social. From the grey postwar years into the Swinging Sixties, the colourful consumerist 1970s; the 1980s London of Mrs Thatcher's Big Bang, the end of communism, the single European market, computers and smartphones, life had been getting steadily better, more interesting, diverse and richer in experiences and horizons, especially intellectual ones. Sadly, I believe that this particular upward arc peaked sometime around 2012-2013. History is cyclical. Since then, it has turned downwards; this is clear as we review events of the past decade, beginning with the aftermath of the financial crisis (that somehow bypassed Poland), Brexit, Trump, Xi, Putin and Covid - and now Putin unrestrained - and of course climate change. Dangerous populist ideologies, stupid people tampering with national policies

How will the future look? Will tomorrow be better? 

Not even our best minds are able to predict the future with any meaningful accuracy. Some of us can intuit the future better than others, but even so, this typically means getting one thing right for every two things we get wrong.

We couldn't even model the course of a pandemic. We can't see how Russia's invasion of Ukraine will end. (Hopefully with the departure of every last Russian military unit from Ukrainian soil.) But then what? Regime change in Russia? Reparations? Who will pay for the rebuilding of a shattered nation? How will Russia look after such a debacle? Right now, we haven't a clue.

But let's think about a deeper future. 2072. Fifty years on.

I'm optimistic. History is cyclical. [Another link] After the downturn, an upturn. We will progress, we will have learnt. Overcoming the challenge of man-made climate change and man-made disasters such as despotism, repression and war must be top of the human agenda.

I think the future will tend towards being less consumerist-oriented. There will be less 'stuff' in circulation. [Look at your mobile phone. It's a phone, a TV, a radio, a camera, a movie camera, a watch, a compass, a step-counter, a torch - individual bits of kit that are no longer needed.] Books will become a status symbol as consumption of reading material will happen more online; artificial intelligence will be bolstered by our own augmented intelligence. Example - access via one's mobile device to Wikipedia. A slightly simpler voice-activated interface will make it easier still.

The future will be greyer - but it will be more meaningful. Less gaily coloured plastic baubles. The look-and-feel of our future world will be more austere; showing off will be seen as infantile and egotistic. Conspicuous consumption, built-in obsolescence and 'keeping up with the Jones' are already a consigned to history, having peaked in the 1970s and '80s.

The rush to make money will be tempered by a greater respect for the fragile planet on which we live. Fewer privately owned cars, less exotic holidays. But a rush to live in temperate climes, to move away from unbearably hot zones. 

My hope is that people will learn to live in comfort and no longer chase after luxury, placing greater store on learning, skills, arts and crafts, science, philosophy and extraterrestrial exploration. The life sciences will flourish; who could have believed that a vaccine could have been rolled out globally within a year of a pandemic taking hold across humanity? The next decades will see advances in medical technology moving forward at a pace similar to than in IT since the 1980s. We'll see huge advances in longevity as we start to unravel the genetic mechanisms of ageing.

I'd like to think that in the longer term future, the levels of knowledge, wisdom and insight that I have achieved in my mid-60s will be standard across most 20 year-olds, who will only stand to grow wiser and more knowledgeable as their reach their 200s.

A stable population of five billion human beings, with natural population decline kicking in by the second half of this century will be sustainable.

Five billion people, at peace with themselves, at peace with each other, not obsessed with wealth and status but with acquiring knowledge and spiritual development.

This time last year:
Blossom time in Jakubowizna

This time two years ago:

Apple-blossom time in Jakubowizna

This time three years ago:
Busy doing nothin'

This time eight years ago:
Springtime pictorial

This time nine years ago:
Kitten time!

This time ten years ago:
Warsaw-Centrum to Jeziorki by train with super-wide lens

This time 11 years ago:
Loose Lips Sink Ships - part II

This time 12 years ago:
Jeziorki in the infra red 

This time 13 years ago:
Some rain, at last!

A future like this - Lent 2022: Day 42

A happy childhood - one of two children, planned, wanted and loved. A great education - every one of my teachers driven by a strong motivation to motivate - to get their pupils curious about the world around them, how it functions, its place in the Cosmos. An unquenchable desire to learn - rather than a need to pass exams or compete with other pupils - drives me on. With easy and unlimited access to the world's learning online, the curious child will not be held back, provided that it is continually encouraged.

Individual development is not just about memorising facts and marshalling them into insights to make sense of the world. It is also about creativity - music, the visual arts, storytelling. A secure childhood without bullying, without aggression (only whiffs of it from history books), a comfortable childhood without hunger, conflict or illness. People wonder how their forefathers were allowed to be fed with foods that harmed their health. 

Nations, nationalities, have become about culture, tradition and identity - it is pleasant to travel to witness different customs and landscapes in our neighbours' lands - borders between countries have become as meaningless as those between towns and villages. The last wars were fought a long time ago, some over ideological differences, some over borders - but that was when mankind was less developed and more aggressive.

We live long. We make music, we discuss, we travel - technologies today make jet airliners as obsolete as steam trains seemed after their withdrawal from service. We travel to the stars. We contact other spacetime-faring civilisations, that, like us, have matured, have emerged from a dangerous adolescence, communicating to share wisdom, scientific knowledge. Portals to other universes, dimensions, travel across time. Reaping the rewards of our understanding of physics.

Science is blending with spirituality. Religions remain as deep metaphor, wisdom embedded in ancient texts; some still practice but no longer are the texts taken literally, or used as the basis for aggression. Science no longer belittles the spiritual but remains open to the metaphysical as a direction for further research.

Driven on by curiosity and a desire to create, to advance ever closer to the One.

POSTSCRIPT, 13 April 2022: I dream I am studying at a university; it is like Cambridge, but bigger, grander, and set on a hill. Stretching up the hillside are multiple college quadrangles, 15th century architecture with pinnacles and gargoyles. Students everywhere, deep in discourse. I am researching the etymology of street names. To get to the library I need, I have to crawl through a narrow passage - that familiar birth-canal dream again!

This time last year:
Qualia memories: rural Gloucestershire, 1973

This time two years ago:
Lent 2020 - the summing up

This time three years ago:
Strength in numbers

This time six years ago:
Cultural differences: distance to power

This time ten years ago:
Painting the Forum Orange

This time 13 years ago:
That's what I like about the North