Prophesy

For a species that communicates instantaneously, that has access to the sum of human knowledge accessible at a few strokes of the keyboard, we continue to be absolutely useless at foretelling the future. 

Why can't we just know when the next global war  or pandemic will break out? Or who'll be the next culturally significant rock'n'roller, head of state or iconic actor to pop their clogs? What will be the value of the dollar at the end of this year? Will we get snow this winter? 

We don't like change, nevertheless, we like it when things improve. Transitioning from a sub-optimal situation to a better state is never easy, but with hindsight, we see that the change had indeed been worth it. And yet the introduction of something good and new often carries with it other changes that are not so good. Think of the end of communism in Poland and its neighbours. 

Because we're so utterly incapable of predicting outcomes, because the systems and systems within systems in which we live are so incredibly complex, unintended consequences of decisions made to improve things go awry. Mathematically, the exponential rise of complexity leads to chaos. Human life was so much less complex at the time of the Oracle of Delphi.

As a species, we're good at history. We remember, we tell each other stories about our shared past and our heritage. We can grasp narratives. With the benefit of hindsight, we know why this war or that war was fought, why this particular economic policy turned out to be a failure, or why some product ended up being a far greater success on the market than anyone had dared predict.

Things seem to get worse quicker than they get better, or so it seems to us. Poland's improving quality of life is something that one sees clearly over the space of decades; it is harder to observe and quantify from one month to the next. New infrastructure takes a long time to roll out; Warsaw West railway station being a good example (the underground passage between platforms was meant to have opened on 1 September, is now meant to open in 'September'. What's a few more days after nearly six years on the job? Still, once complete, it will be massively, wildly, better than the old station.

I started writing this blog yesterday, unaware that this morning, I'd wake to the news that multiple Russian drones have flown across Polish territory, an event that no one predicted last night. Once the news cycle gets cranked up, the pundits start to spout. I've come to learn that the best predictor of whether Poland's really in a bad place or whether this will all blow over is to look at the financial markets. The złoty barely budged against the euro, staying at the lower end of the 4.25-4.30 złoty band, where it's been since April. 

If you can't nail down the future empirically, using the tools of logic – deduction and induction – coupled with our recent ability to crunch vast amounts of data, then metaphysics – intuition – is the only way forward. And ward off truly bad things from happening by considering them, and then expressing gratitude when they don't happen. And not getting complacent.

This time seven years ago:
Comfort comes in layers

This time eight years ago:
Preference and familiarity

This time nine years ago:
A long day in wonderful Wrocław

This time 11 years ago:
Putin will not heal Russia's tortured soul

This time 12 years ago:
Opole, little-known town

This time 13 years ago:
Raise a glass to Powiśle 

This time 15 years ago:
Mud, rain and local elections 

This time 17 years ago:
There must be a better way (commuting woes)