Since Platforma Obywatelska (PO -
Civic Platform) was formed in 2001, I have voted for the party at elections local, parliamentary and presidential. Its blend of moderate economic liberalism and moderate social conservatism squares pretty much with
my own views brought over with me from the UK. I remember when PO's leader Donald Tusk made his maiden speech as prime minister to the Polish parliament. I was sitting in a traffic jam, radio turned up; I found myself involuntarily applauding every other sentence. A speech in which the importance of re-building trust in Polish society was the key theme.
Yet today three years on, with PO in such a strong position in Polish politics, I am thoroughly disillusioned with it and yet there is no alternative to it. None.
And when a political party gains such control it can use it for good, or ill. But in the case of PO, it's not using it at all. The party is showing that its natural instincts are to do nothing. Hope something will come along.
Why am I writing this today? Firstly,
a personal epiphany last week. I am unlikely to
vote for Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, the PO mayor of Warsaw in this autumn's local government elections. She has done too little for the residents of Jeziorki. Some sewers are being built, but at a snail's pace. There is still no pavement along ul. Karczunkowska, no road crossing by the bus stop, water standing on fields drowning crops (where are the drainage ditches?), far too many unasphalted roads, no macro-scale planning solutions to suburban and exurban sprawl and how the owners of the tens of thousands of new homes recently built around the city's rim are to get into town. And still no drains for ul. Trombity. We have spent nearly 15,000 zlotys (£3,000) on having our septic tank emptied since the last local government elections. Enough already!
Secondly, the realisation that Donald Tusk's government has not got down to any serious reforms of the Polish state. When I read
Scatt's blog post today about his attempts to extend his
meldunek and resident's permit, my blood boiled. That such brutally unhelpful, pig-ignorant people should still be allowed to interface with the public, 20 years after then end of communism, just beggars belief. The woman in question should be thrown out of work. Poland can't afford better medical treatment for its chronically ill citizens and yet can afford to pay a salary to this useless woman (and many, many more like her).
Reform is not just about making the Polish state more citizen-friendly. It is about making those tough choices that need to be made to get Poland's budget deficit and public debt under control. And what are we seeing? One percentage point increase on VAT and talk about a tax on banks (which will in any case be passed straight on to their customers). Where are the cuts?
Hats off to George Osborne (who's gone up in my estimation immeasurably since becoming Chancellor of the Exchequer). This is what needs to be done - set a target (get the deficit down to around 1% by 2016) and define the way to get there. The gap will be closed by a mix of measures that is 23% tax increases, 77% spending cuts.
Yet there is no appetite in Tusk's government - even with a PO president - to contemplate the minutest cut in spending. All the talk is of price rises of government services - vehicle technical inspections (the Polish MoT), vehicle registration plates... But what about slimming down and streamlining onerous procedures? When it comes to setting up in business as a sole trader -
jednoosobowa działalność gospodarcza - paying taxes, buying real estate, going to court - in these areas Poland competes with some of the world's most inept states, say the World Bank and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
The English-language corner of the Polish blogosphere is currently replete with stern mutterings that the political and economic situation is no good and that Something Must Be Done.
Polish M'Knob is worried that the Poland's current economic dash is unsustainable in the medium term. Student SGH at
Politics, Economy and Society is worried that Jarosław Kaczyński is going nuts and radicalising the National Catholic element in a most unhealthy and undemocratic way, while his Prawo i Sprawidliwość (PiS - Law and Justice) party implodes.
Raf Uzar is saying pretty much the same thing.
Pan Steeva in Młochów compares, on the basis of latest World Economic Forum findings, how much ground Poland still have to make up on the US and UK in terms of innovation, labour market efficiency, macro-economic business environment and of course infrastructure.
Public spending cuts have to be made, but they have to be made where they have the least negative impact on the economy. Compared to the UK, Poland has the relative comfort of lower deficit (6.9% of GDP last year as opposed to the UK's 11.2%) and lower debt (roughly 54% of GDP vs. the UK's 70%). This means that Poland does not need to cut to the bone. Infrastructure spending must increase - and don't forget our railways. Innovation is needed and a reformed higher education system that turns out graduates with skills that employers will need a few years down the line.
Savings can be made almost anywhere. There are way too many bureaucrats adding nothing to the economy. In the UK, Companies House (where all limited liability companies are registered), employs 1,064 people to look after the entire country. In Poland, companies are registered in a court. A judge decides. Why? Who's the other party in the case? In Warsaw alone, the Ministry of Justice (again - why!) is believed to employ 1,200 people in the KRS to administer this procedure. 'Believed' - unlike the transparent UK government, where this information is available on line - in Poland there is no such information publicly available. The estimate comes from a Warsaw lawyer that regularly has dealings with the KRS.
In Ireland, it costs €0.009 (nine-tenths of a eurocent) to raise one euro of tax. In Poland, it costs 2.3 grosze to raise one zloty of tax. The Polish tax system is two and half times less efficient than the Irish system. Why is Poland's VAT threshold so low? It costs more to administer the VAT input and output of low-turnover micro-businesses than the revenue it brings into the treasury. It is to create work for armies of clerks. The savings made here should be redistributed into spending on education, healthcare and infrastructure.
Last year, Deloitte published a report saying that Poland could save 15 billion zlotys (that is three times more than the VAT rise from 22% to 23% is expected to bring in) by creating a shared services centre for government so that payroll, HR and other back-office functions for all the ministries and government agencies can be handled from one place rather than from 45 separate departments as at present. This is the kind of radical thinking that's needed right now.
But we won't see it from Tusk and Komorowski. They are far too busy worrying about next autumn's parliamentary elections. Who are they worrying about? PiS will have imploded by then, fracturing into at least two smaller parties, the Jarosław hardcore and a more moderate socially-conservative but economically statist party. SLD will gather support, especially from the young who don't remember the indignities of living under communism. (They should remember the impudent corruption of the Miller government 2001-2004). Socially-liberal and redistributionist, SLD will support the miners and other powerful bastions of worker privilege living off the taxes of others. SLD will not reform the state, just fill its top positions with its own cronies.
A new party is needed, not necessarily more liberal than PO on economic issues - but prepared to
do it, not just talk the talk. Politicians - other than Jarosław Kaczyński - are not showing any conviction. PO is satisfied with just hanging on in power. But guys - what about the history books? Do you want to be remembered as the government that could have done something but didn't?
The Polish media need to engage with their readership. Where should the cuts come? How can Poland balance its budget? Would you rather let large swathes of public sector employees retire early on your money - or spend it on new roads? Would you rather increase VAT or personal income tax?
See how the
BBC is doing this here. Look at the clarity of the language. And
this - what would you do?