Defending Poland against hybrid warfare

The situation in Ukraine continues to be uneasy; the truce signed in Minsk in September is regularly being broken. There were reports today of a further 80 Russian vehicles including 32 tanks crossing the border into Ukraine, reports which the Russians of course deny.

It looks like Ukraine has held the line and that Putin will, for the time being, do what he can to swallow parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts and incorporate Crimea into Russia, something the rest of the world will not recognise. So another frozen conflict, more land grabbed by Russia to be run by Mr Putin's unsavoury associates - along with Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria - Russia's neo-imperialist appetite has been held in check by international pressure.

In Ukraine, it is clear that Russia has been stopped short of its greater territorial ambitions - a land corridor to Crimea, the whole of the Donbass region, even Odessa and a land corridor to Transnistria. Western sanctions have forced the Kremlin to hold back on further overt military action.

While Putin may be less inclined to pursue traditional means of war to conquer what he calls 'Novorossiya', the Kremlin's policy of hybrid war continues apace. Russian aircraft probe the approaches to NATO airspace on a daily basis. Russian hackers keep up the pressure on Western IT systems, while Russian propaganda is working at full-blast, feeding the usual lies, disinformation and half-truths to distract and confuse Western public opinion.

Russia's targets for mischief include former parts of the USSR such as Estonia and Latvia; meanwhile the Czech Republic has emerged as being a hotbed for Russian spying - much as Austria was during the (first) Cold War. Finland - a part of the Romanov Russian empire for over a century, is also feeling anxious. This BBC feature explains what Russia is up to and what the West is up against.

How should Poland react to the threat of hybrid warfare? The notion of re-creating a Home Army (Armia Krajowa) such as the one set under Nazi occupation is a sound one. Even with a massive rearmament programme, a Polish army would be unable to hold off a full-on Russian military attack based on armour, infantry and airpower. The key would be the willingness of other NATO members to commit to the defence of Poland. Some are notoriously wobbly, both when it comes to political will and military power.

It is realistic for Poland to plan for NATO limited support at the most in the eventuality of a Russian invasion. A large, well-organised citizen army, ready to go underground at a moment's notice, to harass the invaders behind their lines, disrupt their administration and logistics, would have a strategic deterrent effect.

But such a force, embedded into local structures in communities along Poland's north-eastern border with Russia, would also prove useful should the Russians try out hybrid warfare on Polish soil. This would not involve massive armoured thrusts through Ukraine 'reaching Warsaw in a week'. Nor would it involve sending convoys of troops by sea to Kaliningrad, giving NATO advance warning of threats to Poland and/or the Baltic States.

No. It would involve 'little green men' as were seen in Crimea and in Donbass. Deniable, not officially there. Entering Poland via Kaliningrad, they would initially engage in small-scale sabotage and provocation - who knows - pretending to be Lithuanian nationalists or Islamicists, creating some phony narrative to be retransmitted worldwide via RT (Russia Today as it is now branded) and the legions of Russian trolls commenting on the websites of Western news media.

The presence of armed men dispersed locally, who know the lie of the land, who can distinguish neighbour from stranger, would be a strong deterrent to 'little green men'.

The ideal base for such a Home Army would be the fire stations (remizy) of the OSP - voluntary fire service - of which there are over 15,000 scattered around Poland's smaller towns and villages. Embedding platoons of volunteers trained in the use of firearms and military communications alongside the OSPs, cooperating closely with Poland's border guards, the Straż Graniczna.

It would not be unfeasible for a volunteer force of up to 20,000 part-time soldiers, trained at weekends and during periodic military exercises, to be raised and equipped. The costs would be modest compared to equipping the Polish Air Force with F-16s armed with JASSMs and anti-missile systems. A Home Army should never be considered a replacement for conventional armed forces, rather an low-cost, highly effective countermeasure against the type of warfare that the Kremlin is currently engaged in.

The 'AK' brand is Poland enjoys sky-high respect, and young Poles today wishing to honour their grandparents who fought against the Nazi occupier would rally around it.

This article is worth reading.

This time last year:
Another office move

This time three years ago:
PiS splits - Solidarna Polska formed (anyone remember them?)

This time four years ago:
Tesco vs. Auchan

This time seven years ago:
My father's house