Sunday 25 October 2015

Four years of PiS

PiS (Law and Justice) looks like it has won an outright majority in the Polish parliament. Exit polls - usually an accurate indicator of the election outcome - give PiS 39.1% of the vote, with outgoing government PO (Civic Platform) - in power for the past eight years - gaining 23.4% of the vote. Other parties likely to get into the next Sejm - Kukiz '15 (whatever that is), Nowocześni 7.1%, and PSL (anachronistically translated into English as the Peasants' Party) with 5.2%. Failing to get in are the United Left (as an alliance of parties, ZLew failed to cross the 8% threshold, polling just 6.6%), KroWiN MiKKKe (4.9%) and Razem (3.9%).

How does this translate into seats? Out of 460 seats in the Sejm, PiS looks set to command 242, with PO having 133 seats; Kukiz '15 (until last year this guy was nothing than a pop singer) 44 seats; Ryszard Petru's Nowocześni (technocratic economic liberals) 22 seats and Polish politics' great survivors, PSL, with 18 seats.

We don't yet know the outcome of the Senate vote.

If this poll is accurate, we can expect a PiS government and a PiS president. The big question is how much damage will such a government do over the next four years. If election pledges are anything to go by, the cost of these (if they are indeed to be met) will be huge. Who'll pay? Foreign banks and supermarkets? The cost will be immense. Poland will cease to be a magnet for foreign investors, jobs growth will dry up and the pace of growth of the economy will start to slow.

The western media are already talking about the 'right wing' winning power - I equate 'right' with Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, privatisation, freedom and a tough stance against trade unions. If we're talking 'right' as in General Franco, then we're nearer the truth - the Big State and the Catholic Church, not deregulation and empowerment of the individual.

['Poland lurches to the right' bleats the Guardian. Hang on just one second - PiS's economic policies would gladden Jeremy Corbin's heart. Cut retirement age! Handouts to miners! Raise social security payments! Stop privatisation!]

Kukiz '15 will prove itself an irrelevance. Four years ago, Janusz Palikot created a party out of nothing around his own persona. That party entered parliament, as has Paweł Kukiz's newly-created party today. Palikot's party foundered and splintered and went nowhere, despite having a leader who was a professional politician and formerly a successful entrepreneur, and a clearly defined political position (economically and socially liberal). Kukiz has none of these attributes. The people who will have come into the next Sejm on his coat-tails are amateurs, Dude. They have no frame of reference, they'll be like children who wander into the middle of a movie.

Some of Kukiz's parliamentarians will quickly leave to shore up PiS's parliamentary majority, others will hit the tabloid headlines for all the wrong reasons. (Note to Poland's security services - these people are prime targets for the Kremlin's provocations.)

I published seven scenarios for the election, the first of which indeed came to pass. But one I totally missed was the destruction of Poland's social and economic left with both ZLew - an alliance of SLD and Palikot's Movement failing to cross the threshold. The reason was the excellent performance of Razem's Adrian Zandberg in the second TV debate. He showed that the minor left-wing party was in with a chance, pulling up its poll from 1% to nearly 4%, depriving ZLew of the votes needed to take it over the 8% threshold needed for an alliance.

The next four years will see old scores settled, attempts to rewrite recent (and indeed not-so-recent) history, bizarre economic policies and Poland - the powerhouse of Central and Eastern Europe until tonight - becoming increasingly marginalised in Brussels and in world politics.

But this is democracy. Whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger. In four years time, things will come right again. No need to panic. I feel much calmer than I did in 2005.

In the meantime - five parties, four of which have some raison d'etre, seem likely to make up parliament. One thing is certain - tomorrow, Poland wakes up to a very different reality.

My main worry tonight is about government. The people who in Britain would be called the Civil Service, who in Poland are the professional administration - urzędnicy. The top layers will be culled for purely political reasons - "not our people". Regardless of their skills and commitment, they will be ousted and replaced by people who can be trusted in the party-political sense. Poland will lose many hard-working and talented administrators for no other good reason than for PiS to shoehorn in a buddy who needs a job (preferably with a chauffeured car, a big office and full secretarial backup).

Pan Prezes (of government agencies, regulatory authorities, state-owned enterprises) - your time is up. And many deputy presidents, directors of departments, as well.

I remember in 2005 meeting a PiS-installed deputy president of a state-owned agency saying that his job was to 'get rid of all the commies' in the next two years.

The danger with this approach is that you lose continuity and skills, often replacing people who genuinely care about what they are doing with people who know or care little about the subject.

No doubt the next four years will prove interesting to me professionally.

This time three years ago:
High Victorian Manchester

This time six years ago:
The clocks go back - but when should they go forward?

This time seven years ago:
Warsaw's first Metro line is completed

5 comments:

AndrzejK said...

The worst of it is that less than 20% of the population entitled to vote will have imposed their out of date socialist economics and right wing reactionary world view on the remaining 80%. And even worse the Polish Church will entrench in its views which are totally contrary to the breath of fresh air blowing from the Vatican.

Anonymous said...

Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa ...

For some time you tolerated moronic young PiS-heads on your site - I assumed that they were your friends' children.

Thinking that you were promoting dialogue and therefore a better democracy, you were, instead, really giving these nutters legitimacy.

Now we have the consequence: an absolute majority for a party based on total lies and hate. Black is white and white is black.

Less than one in five of the population chose them; yet they have an overall majority: WTF?


Nothing these people say is true. You can see it in their eyes when challenged. These people know that they are liars. They did not expect to win. But liars can convince themselves that their lies are the truth. Then they demand others are convinced of their lies. They don't want to/can't come down. Then they shoot everyone who doesn't agree.

This is exactly how Hitler came to power. And never left.

Until made to.


They have learnt it every Sunday.

- Q: Why do so many WWII era Polish emigrees in London (not neccessarily great English speakers) choose to attend their local "English" RC church, rather than the nearby Polish one?

- A: All the "real" Polish priests are dead. The "middle" generation, i.e. those that were initially genuine believers, but were leant on heavily by the Kremlin (post Wojtyła), have either drank themselves to death or did themselves in more directly.


So, go and listen to these fuckheads, aka Polish priests. They are no more priests than you or I. They are well-paid Putinbots (as are PiS and Orban etc in general): driving flash cars, taking direct instruction from Moscow.

"Turn left at the next junction; turn right at the next crisis I've created."


This is why Palikot had such initial success - most Poles know that most Polish priests are totally bogus. Freeloaders at best, but really corrupt; all the way to murderous paedophiles.

They will always cover each others' arses, cum what may. There may be a few genuine ones left, but they're old and frail and reliant on the young.


"The western media are already talking about the 'right wing' winning power - I equate 'right' with Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, privatisation, freedom and a tough stance against trade unions. If we're talking 'right' as in General Franco, then we're nearer the truth - the Big State and the Catholic Church, not deregulation and empowerment of the individual.

['Poland lurches to the right' bleats the Guardian. Hang on just one second - PiS's economic policies would gladden Jeremy Corbin's heart. Cut retirement age! Handouts to miners! Raise social security payments! Stop privatisation!]"

But for years you've muddled the water between left and right wrt Poland. This has no meaning from a London POV.


The fascist parties have won. You question Kukiz. His only policy is to turn Poland into a dictatorship. Look up what fasci are.


Your half-hearted endorsement of Petru (you got the party name wrong, accidentally, incidentally), I took as a tacit acceptance of defeat. Zakopaliście Kopaczową.


Half the population didn't vote.


For many reasons, but lethargy is the first. These numbats (including Heniek i Zieniek, according to your POV) are mirrored in the UK.

From Tony Benn's "if voting changed anything, they'd abolish it" to "they're all the same", the populace has been convinced NOT to vote.

By whom? And to whose benefit?


What the future?

Może O Coś Zrozumię - de* paartij ow de* fjułtrzer!**


Whilst watching live tv at 8am, the faszyści show their form (big ears) - will Szydło be PM? - no comment. TVP pronounce PiS as peace rather than pis or piss.

Heniek

* not possible to transliterate th
** who says Polish uses too many letters?

dr Marcin said...

The big question is how much damage will such a government do over the next four years.

Improper big question. Accurate is, how much damage such a previous government has done throught of last eight years.

Michael Dembinski said...

@ Andrzej K:

Problem with PO was 1) Too many people left behind. Despite EU funded projects, a fair wind economically, there has been a slight rise in inequality (the EU farm subsidies notwithstanding). 2) Tapegate. Sikorski, Rostowski et al did PO no favours behaving the way they did, using the language they did - not gentlemanly, not civilised - glad to see the back of them in hindsight. 3) After Tusk's departure for Brussels, PO lost drive and direction. Drift and fudge, weariness and cynicism that was plain for all to see.

I'd prefer to see PiS with a majority, so that they can take full responsibility for their programme. If they screw up, they can be sure the voters will take revenge on them next time round.

@ Anonymous

Good stuff! First time in eight and half years that someone's bothered to pour their heart out on a blog comment!

My three regular PiS-supporting commentators have an average age of 50. Yes, I do believe in a genuine dialogue. I think you're going a bit far - things will subside. I felt such rage ten years ago when Poland voted for Lech Kaczyński and then for the PiS/LPR/Samoobrona government. I'm more sanguine this time round.

Dr marcin. The economy has grown significantly, unemployment has fallen significantly, Poland has improved significantly in the main global indicators (Doing Business, Corruption Perception Index, Competitiveness Index, UN Human Development Index etc).

AndrzejK said...

One of the key issues for the economy is whether Poland can move from being viewed as a place to invest because of cheap labour to being a place to invest because land prices are low. One if not the only reason England is so expensive is because of land and property values which bear no relationship to economic reality. These land values drive up production costs, distribution, retail and hence the cost of living.

So lets see whether anyone in the new government notices. Depends I guess on who heads up the really key ministries (Finance, Industry and Farming).

Not a fart's chance in hell I guess of moving to a modern educational system.