Monday, 16 May 2016

Brexit and POTUS Trump - a political fiction


Jeziorki, 17 May 2020

Was that the crump of a distant artillery barrage way off to the north-east or an unseasonal thunderstorm? As I sit at my desk in my Warsaw home, I wonder how it ever got to be like this.

Since last August, when Russian 'little green men' crossed over the border from the Russian republic of Belarus, Podlasie and Warmia-Mazury have witnessed skirmishes of increasing ferocity, some them approaching the city of Białystok. Who's doing the fighting? RT tells us its Polish citizens of Belarusian and Lithuanian ethnicity fighting for their right to self-determination. Poles don't believe these stories. Further west in Europe... well, who knows what the truth is?

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were incorporated into the Russian Federation after a three-week blitzkrieg last spring. Germany and France, the strongest members of NATO after the US and English pull-outs, did not have the stomach for a fight. Polish, Slovakian and Hungarian soldiers gave their lives for the Baltic nations, but to no avail. Germany, France and Czechia have had their morale sapped by extremist parties funded by the Kremlin, no one really knows what's what any more.

President Trump kept his word. He would not spend American dollars or waste American lives propping up effete European nations that can't sort things out for themselves. "Why should American pay for the defence of the world's richest trading bloc?" asked Trump. Within a year and half of taking office, Trump signed the Let Europe Defend Itself Act, ending more than seven decades of US peacekeeping across the North Atlantic.

Inflation in the US has topped 20%. No longer able to source from China or even Mexico, American business has been forced to make everything itself. Factories are booming, and unemployment is at a record low. But wage rises have led to runaway inflation. Ordinary Americans are feeling they are having to run faster to stand still. Prices in the shops are rising faster than pay packets; strikes are breaking out.

England has had a dismal time these past years. Since leaving the EU, the UK has torn apart. The Scots, who voted by 63% to 37% to stay in the EU, immediately demanded to split from the UK and rejoin Europe. Scotland's economy suffered, more so than England's.

The ban on EU workers taking up employment in England hit everyone. A vicious spiral took hold. Seeing the savings that President Trump had achieved by pulling out of NATO, the English government did likewise the following year. GDP growth stuttered to a halt and then slid back into recession following Brexit and Scotland's subsequent independence vote. After several downgrades affecting HM Treasury bonds, there was not enough cash to keep the NHS functioning as the English people would have liked it to. The absence of foreign doctors, nurses and orderlies was also felt - profoundly. But after leaving NATO, England had a sizeable peace dividend to spend on healthcare.

The men and women who had wrested the UK out of the EU now felt foolish; the Remainers vindicated. But it was too late. Across Europe, the lights were going out, once again.

Britain was more secure than its Continental neighbours. The German security services, working with their Dutch counterparts, proved conclusively that attacks on white women by Muslim men were fomented by migrants from the Southern Caucasians, financed and organised by indirectly Russian secret services. The Kremlin's aim was to stir up racial hatred against the refugees from the the Middle East, seeking shelter in the EU from wars that Russia was stoking. In France and Belgium, the Russians did not need to intervene - Daesh was continuing to hit civilian targets time after time, despite mass arrests and, later, internment.

Things are bad and will only get worse.

I was angry when the UK left the European Union. I was heartbroken when the United Kingdom broke up. No more Britain - the land where I was born had become a name to consign to history. Like Yugoslavia or Czechoslovakia. I could see why the Scots voted to leave, and this time round, I supported their independence movement. And I support Scotland's efforts to rejoin the EU as an independent nation - which is currently being blocked for the most spurious of reasons.

Here in Poland, things had continued upon their merry way. KOD demos every few weeks, a puppet president, a puppet premier and the man who holds their strings continuing to come up with ever more worrying ideas. Still, unlike the leader next door, he's no murderer. No one had died in any KOD demo; they were always good natured, despite the occasional shows of violence from the nationalist movement. Kaczyński continued to keep the far right under control. But the government... it drifted. There was a distinct shortage of professionals in government. In the foreign ministry, in the ministry of defence, in the economy ministries. Trusted people of Prezes Kaczyński. Lack of experience or qualifications - no big problem - as long as you're 'one of ours'.

And hence the puzzle - Poland's economy just kept on growing. Exports to the former UK, once Poland's second-biggest market, shrank dramatically after England closed its labour market. But Polish entrepreneurs - who'd lost big markets like Russia and Ukraine before - carried on fighting. By some miracle, Polish consumers kept on consuming, even though the real estate market tanked due to geopolitical worries. Despite everything, EU funds for Poland keep on coming through, some of the money is spent wisely on infrastructure and innovation, some of it not. This year - believe it or not - Poland's GDP is still forecast to grow by 1.8%.

These are not good times for Europe. It was 20 years between the end of the First World War and the beginning of the Second. It has been 75 years since the end of the Second World War and now it does feel like Europe will be in conflict yet again.

Why? Because England voted for some chimeric notion of 'sovereignty' rather than the more practical realities of the economy and security. Because America had dumbed down enough to be taken in by a knave. Elsewhere in Europe, that had happened earlier.

This time four years ago:
The law of diminishing returns disappears up its own fundament

This time five years ago:
A night at the Filters (Museum Night 2011)

This time six years ago:
Warsaw's Museum Night

This time seven years ago:
Exploring my anomalous memory events

8 comments:

Alexander said...

In 2016

Today a German judge approved Merkels kicking down another base of democracy: freedom of speach.

The EUSSR elite and their press keep silent.

On April 6th 2016 nearly 2/3 of the Dutch voters voted against the EUSSR. Their vote neglected by Brussels, and their own pro EU government. This again shows their is no democratic basis for the EU.

Women and girls being attacked by muslims is nothing new in Holland, reasons see the police defence about Bradford UK.

Russians and Germans are best friends.Germans buying fuel and Russians their cars and planes. They will start a high speed TALGO train service in June 2016.

If Engeland goes, the Danes already said the would have normal trade relations.

The unelected elite in Brussels and Berlin know very well that if one country goes, more will follow. So they are black mailing the democratic choices. Mini workers in the UK got even letters from the Germans according tot he BBC.

After 2016.

The Poles and other middle European countries will also vote to leave after their democratic referendums against Merkels migrants are punished by the EU.

This will lead to succesful democratic countries like England, Holland, Flanders, Denmark, Poland and a few other to join Canada and the USA in NAFTA for trade and NATO for defense.

Succesful and creative companies like Tesla, Microsoft, Google, UPS, Vodafone and so on will no longer pay the anti competition tax and leave the greater German zone of Europe.

The German euro zone will be low on debt, people not able to pay for education, healthcare, retirement and other western standards, like Greece, Spain, and have their bank accounts emptied Cyprus style.

Like 1920's Germany again.

Just my thoughts.

Best regards,

Alexander

Michael Dembinski said...

@Alexander

I'm afraid I disagree with you totally.

Painting the EU as a new USSR actually angers me, because the people in Brussels are generally decent people and not the murderous thugs that ran the Soviet Union.

Please show me where the EU GULAGs are. Or the Katyńs. Or the entire nations deported at a whim. The USSR was a bloodthirsty tyranny. The EU is a network of nations that has successfully ensured that none of its member states went to war with any other member state.

Tesla and Google, Canada and Flanders... wishful thinking. Governance is a damned sight harder in real life.

Putin would be the biggest beneficiary of Brexit - and of a Trump presidency. I want to see the UK in the EU working to make it more competitive and innovative. Not scurrying off in a sulk.

DC said...

The problem is that Putin would also benefit from a Hillary presidency. In general, she would/will be a terrible president. We're screwed either way, probably.

And anyone who thinks that free trade with the US is a good idea for Europe simply does not understand how things work in the US and the level of corruption. A vote for TTIP, unless radically restructured, is a vote to gradually dismember the middle class in Europe.

Paddy said...

Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. Terrifying? Absolutely.

Anonymous said...

Latest lies: Cameron states that the UK would veto any attempt by Turkey to join the EU. Fat chance, he will be outvoted by the Franco-German axis. There appears to me to be a blatant resort to scare tactics by our metropolitan elite and big business to keep the UK in while totally disregarding the 'man in the street'. This whole argument seems to smell of the establishment keeping its hands on the reins of power and the money (while willfully ceding sovreignity to an unelected and unaccountable elite). As I learned during my career, when in doubt follow the money, it's generally an eye opener.

Michael Dembinski said...

It's one elite against another. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Ian Duncan-Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg,wanting to wrest power by playing the phoney 'sovereignty' card. BoJo was going on about how nice it would be to have Turkey join the EU as recently as this February.

Accountability - I'm tired of hearing the Quitters moaning on about 'unelected bureaucracies'. Did you ever vote for an Undersecretary of State in Whitehall?

When it comes to lies, the Quitters are full of it. Trotting out that "£320m cost to Britain of being in the EU" when they know damn well that this figure is before the rebate and does not factor in any of the many benefits the UK receives from membership.

Being outside the EU will be bloody scary. So it should be told as it is. All those trade contracts to renegotiate. All those countries that Britain has pissed off big time.

Why are the heads of commonwealth countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand at the forefront of the voices to Remain?

What advantage does Norway and Switzerland actually have from being outside the EU but inside the EEA? These countries have to pay their contribution to trade freely with the EU, but have ZERO say as to the regulations imposed upon them. No wonder Norway's foreign minister implored the UK for its own sake to stay in.

The man - and woman - in the street will vote on 23 June. I sincerely hope the head defeats the heart and all this theoretical talk about 'taking control' is finally knocked on the head and the UK can get on with it.

dr Marcin said...

Vast argument to stay the UK i the EU are pensions of approx. 1,3 million retired British citizens living outside of the UK in the EU countries. If the UK leaves the EU, then most of it will be recalculated and a value will loosen. Isn't that a just of a threatening of its own elder and conservative voters base in case of the financial consequences? In such a way, like: "You, retired emeritus, look what my happen if..." and then there plays a Hitchcockian thriller. "And look again, that due to the Brexit there's gonna be none of a qualified nursery [mostly, underpaid] services provided and supported by the Polish very qualified nursing personnel. Be afraid of that." You think that the muslim mama is gonna take a job like that and provide a nursing services for the typical English lady Mrs. Smith or the typical English gentleman Mr. Brown? So, how it works, Mike? Yeap, I'm conscious that I touch a very thin margin of problems. So gents from the Threadneedle Street or Canary Wharf murmur that they gonna change places of their headquarters in favor of other the EU countries... So, to what extent this will be possible to provide on a daily basis a networking with other colleagues, companions and fellows from the political and corporal elites who rest in London? To meet with each other on a casual drink inside of the most luxurious lounge at the Royal Exchange or on the Lombard Street? Not mention about casual weekly meetings at a golf course.

Michael Dembinski said...

" The Scots, who voted by 63% to 37% to stay in the EU, immediately demanded to split from the UK and rejoin Europe."

Actual outcome was 62% to 38% to remain. My 'political fiction' yielded closer result than pollsters.