Monday 10 July 2023

Keep on keeping on

Sometime early next month I should be receiving a letter from the Department of Work and Pensions, informing me of my UK state pension, to which I am entitled as of my 66th birthday. I have been paying into my National Insurance fund monthly payments from Poland right up to the time I was told that I'd been paying in long enough to receive the basic state pension. However, I do not intend to stop working; I enjoy my work too much, it's not physically demanding. My father kept on working until he was nearly 70, stopping only to become a grandfather. I am on record as saying that I intend to keep on working until Poland's GDP per capita overtakes that of the UK (at purchasing power parity, of course). Labour leader Sir Kier Starmer suggested this could be as early as 2030.

Another big motivator for me to keep on is the beneficial nature of eustress ('good stress') or hormesis on health and longevity. Having in one's life a certain amount of stress is better than none at all or too much. "Eustress occurs when the gap between what one has and what one wants is slightly pushed, but not overwhelmed".

For me, in a word, that means deadlines. Having to get something or some things done in time, to a certain quality standard creates stress - as long as it's doable. If you're overloaded by work, and can't get it all done in time, then you start drifting across from 'good stress' into 'bad stress', with all the biological repercussions that bad stress brings. Yes, there are external and internal deadlines; the external ones are hard to dodge. Even people with high levels of self-discipline can push back self-imposed deadlines.

The idea of 'good stress' is supported by scientific evidence showing that repetitive mild stress exposure has anti-aging effects, with physical exercise being a good, measurable, indicator. If you let yourself go as you drift into old age - it's not good. If you overdo the exercise - also not good (muscle injuries, weakened immune system etc). Finding the balance, setting the sliders, as with everything, is key.

I must say, an octogenarian in the White House (who, despite the media making much of his physical and verbal slips, carries himself well) is a great advertisement for pushing age boundaries. Back in the 1950s Winston Churchill had already resigned as prime minister when he was Joe Biden's age, having had a series of minor strokes; Biden will be running again, and if elected, and if he survives that long, he could be stepping out of the White House in January 2029 aged 87. The question here is coping with the stress levels involved with being the leader of the Free World at that age. 

But its not just presidents that are getting older - the entire world is. As the number of births fall across the developed world (and China!), and human lifespans extend, we must all prepare for a rapidly ageing society. The UK is facing up to this reality - male and female retirement ages have been raised to 66 for both (something that is deeply unpopular among my British female contemporaries, who have had to work for six years longer than they had expected when they started their careers!). Poland, however, has merely kicked the can down the road on this issue. "Let some other government take this election-losing decision." But this decision will have to be taken at some time. Last year, 305,000 Poles were born, compared to 700,000 born in 1982. A demographic contraction on such as scale will have massive implications for the future.

I am fortunate in having a job I like. Many lack this comfort, and count down to the day when they can stop working, and when that day comes, face decades of inactivity and increasing financial hardship. Many lack the self-discipline to remain active, and slump in front of the TV set to consume party propaganda.

And yet the Polish economy (like those of the UK and US) remains constrained by labour-market shortages. Having people work longer (given they live longer) makes sense, but the question for social-security systems such as ZUS or NI is how to persuade employees - and employers - to accept the notion of people working on as septuagenarians. Supporting older people as they carry on in paid employment. Carrot, rather than stick. 

Polish employers, however, are stuck in their ways, despite shortages on the labour market. "I must have graduates with Master's degrees! I cannot take on 21-year-olds - they are immature!" British employers, however, happily take on 18 year-old school leavers and most UK university students graduate with Bachelor's degrees. At the other end of the spectrum, Polish employers see impending retirement age as a good excuse to rid themselves of superannuated workers who began their careers in the communist system; only a few will support women over 60 or men over 65 to carry on in their roles. 

Poland's economy has huge growth potential, but the labour market is the greatest constraint. Mass immigration is one answer. An accelerating wage-price inflation spiral is another answer. Raising the state pension age is less palatable? Which is it to be, Poland?

This time last year:
Time and Consciousness

This time two years ago:
Altered states - higher planes

This time seven years ago:
Warsaw-Radom line modernisation - Czachówek

This time 13 years ago:
Climbing Mogielica

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