Can we breathe easy?

Both exit polls give Bronisław Komorowski a narrow margin over Jarosław Kaczyński. TNS OBOP, for public broadcaster TVP, gave Komorowski 53.1% to Kaczyński's 46.9%. (Remember, TNS OBOP was far more accurate in its first-round exit polls). Millward Brown SMG KRC, for TVN, also gives it to Komorowski (51.8% to 48.2%) , as does Homo Homini (for Polsat) but with a wafer-thin margin of 51.1% to 48.9%. A mere 2.2 percentage points is well within the pollsters' margin of error.

It's too close to call. I'm not going to comment until every last vote has been counted. Tomorrow morning we shall see whether or not Poland has escaped five more years of political deadlock by the skin of its teeth. The metaphorical champagne remains corked. Until tomorrow, or until 2015, we shall see.

UPDATE: 05:07am PAP reports that Kaczyński leads by 50.4% to 49.6% with just over half the electoral districts having declared.

Twin turboprop cargo

Late on a summer's evening, when the sun sets around 9pm, one can still catch planes coming into land at Okęcie with a long lens. There's enough light for a short, hand-held exposure.

Here are three aircraft I've not presented before, all twin turboprops, all flying cargo into Warsaw. Below: SP-KPH, one of 11 Saab 340As operated by SprintAir for cargo (no passenger windows) and charter flights. Each one has the same livery pattern - but to make them more interesting to the spotter community, they are painted in different colours.

Below: Saab 340AF SP-KPK. SprintAir also has (windowed) Saab 340As, the QC (Quick Change) version which can be used for cargo or passenger flights, and a pair of standard ones for passenger-only charter use.

Below: Ukrainian Antonov An-26B, a daily visitor to Okęcie. A civil version of the standard Soviet tactical military transport aircraft (first flight 1968). Caught in low sun just before dusk, UR-CHT belonging to Ukrainian operator Meridian approaches Runway 33.

Knackered Nokia

After two years and nine months, my Nokia N95 is getting flaky and unreliable.

Lately, the slider mechanism has broken so that if I slide the display out fully - it goes blank. In order to be able to use the keyboard, I have to extend it nearly all the way out - just enough to be able to read the '1', '2' and '3' keys. Another random error is that of its own volition the phone suddenly decided to go into 'camera standby mode'. No reason. A fix is a re-start, which is annoying. Overnight the phone went into camera standby mode by itself, and stood by all night long until the battery expired. And the battery cover itself is working loose. The phone has ceased alerting me to inbound SMSs; I need to work my way through a clunky menu (four clicks) to check whether or not I've got any messages. The chrome's coming off the most heavily-used keys.

This is a shame, because the Nokia N95 is the first mobile phone I've really liked. It can take decent photos and record little films and sound, play music, store lots of multi-media, has a large memory. If only it had been more robustly made! I'd like an Apple iPhone, but from what I hear from users, it's even more fragile.

Can anyone recommend a mobile phone that's built as solidly as my Nikon DSLRs, one with a built in 5MP+ camera and has lots of memory? E-mail reader not required.

Out on the perimeter

Less than seven kilometres (four and half miles) from the very centre of Warsaw, and you are right out in parts of the city so rural you'd think you were deep in the countryside. Below: Siekierki power station from the flood protection wall. Earlier last month, firemen fought desperately here to stop waters from seeping in under the wall. They succeeded. The sandbags (just out of sight) are still here today.

Below: rail crossing where the coal train makes its way to the power station. Pure Kentucky, is this not? The Vistula is to the left of the flood protection wall. A long way home, but on a day like today, I feel the need to get on my bike and ride and take photographs. No apologies for vibrance of colours; it's that polarising filter giving you an idea of how it looked to me wearing polarising sun glasses.

The railway line runs from Siekierki to Konstancin-Jeziorna sidings; from then on via Nowa Iwiczna and Jeziorki, to the sidings at Okęcie. Below: passing Kilometer 500 on the Vistula. The black sign (left) has the numerals cut out so that boatmen can read it clearly.

Below: I'm deliberately not showing the river. It hides behind high walls. Its presence is felt. Last month, the water was getting close to spilling over the top and trickling under the sodden foundations of the flood defence walls.

Below: I cycled along the banks of the Vistula. There's no tidy towpath, just a track along the top of the flood wall. Here and there you can catch sight of the river. Eventually, I get to Obórki, then I head inland through Okrzeszyn, Powsin, the Las Kabacki forest and home. A long ride, but every inch of it in the presense of the Sublime. Below: A field near Okrzeszyn, Kentucky?


Right: Powsin, Warsaw. Let's not forget where we are. It's just five days before the second round of the presidential elections. You have a choice. Use it to determine whether Poland will mark time or march backwards.
It's quiet and calm in this very rural part of Warsaw, though cyclists and motorbikers are drawn to its quiet byways on beautiful summer afternoons and evenings. Quite a contrast to the rush hour hubbub of Ursynów just three miles to the west of here, ul. Puławska jammed up solid with commuters.

Governance and politics

Yes, it does matter who you elect. Just look at the difference between Slovenia and Serbia, two countries to emerge from Yugoslavia in totally different ways. It's a clear example that governance makes all the difference when it comes to how wealthy and happy a nation is.

One thing I learnt after 16 years at the Confederation of British Industry is the importance of international competitiveness. It's, indeed, a competitive world. When one country stops to take a breather (putting up tariffs to protect domestic industry and labour), other countries muscle in. Global Darwinism. Argentina was the world's fourth-richest nation in 1900, today it's merely 'an emerging nation'; a long series of bad governments taking bad decisions wrecked what was once a great economy. Government does matter. Vote for a government that understands economics.

I don't understand people who are politically active but confess to be economically illiterate. Whenever you start talking about things you don't understand, you are either a knave or a fool. You are either lying or talking crap. I'm really not fussed about in vitro, the role of the church in society, punishing octogenarian communists or gay rights. I am, however, absolutely fussed about when (and at what rate) Poland joins the euro, what the government's industrial policy should be, the Central Bank's stance on monetary policy, what the government is doing to cut the budget deficit, how local authorities are tackling their obligations to protect the environment, and the provision of world-class transport infrastructure. These are the things that determine Poland's place in the world. The rest is white noise. Sadly, the rest is what 95% of the political debate is about in Poland.

Just say 'no' to Beton Jarka

The nation is the largest entity to which we can naturally, comfortably feel affinity to. (Agree or disagree?) I don't much care what happens in Greece or Romania or Iceland as long as the bad things that happen there don't impact Poland or the Polish economy.

National animosity is sad but understandable. "I don't like the French" or "I don't like the Welsh" is something the English might say just as naturally as Poles disliking Germans or Russians. Regional animosity is far rarer. That same degree of animosity as I've described above would be unlikely in a Mazovian, his heart full of atavistic hatred for the inhabitants of Świętokrzyskie or Podlaskie provinces, for example. Lancastrians have long since ceased hated Yorkists.

So caring about the competitiveness of one's country, then, is normal, instinctive. I want to feel proud for my country. I want to see Poland do well on the global stage. The only indicators that really count are social and economic. Progress, development, organisation. Good schools, universities, hospitals, roads, railways; efficient, well-run public services. We should all take natural, biological pride in these features of public life as they improve. But they don't improve by themselves. Left to their own devices, entrepreneurs, by dint of their innate courage, drive, vision and yes, greed, will create jobs and wealth. But they do need to be regulated. How much regulation do they need to stop them from creating cartels and enriching themselves unfairly, selling us shoddy goods and services at inflated prices? That, dear citizen-voter, is up to you.

Regulate them too heavily, and they will pack up their businesses and take the jobs elsewhere. Regulate them too lightly, and they will eat your children. (Notice I've not talked about taxes. My chief gripe with the Polish tax system is not the tax rate, but the ease with which one pays taxes and the transparency of the system.)

A conservative sees the purpose of law as the preservation of individual liberty. Liberty to enrich oneself. The pursuit of happiness. I'm struck by (but understand why) notions of conservatism differ so much between Poland (social conservatives who are economic socialists) and the US (social conservatives who are economic liberals). The UK falls somewhere between, distinctions muddied by residual feudalism (Britain's class system).

My point being? Sunday's vote is between standing still and moving backwards when it comes to global competitiveness. I want an economically strong Poland. Beton Jarka has yet to convince me how PiS is to accomplish that task. So I will be voting on Sunday for 'Bore' Komorowski. 'Steady as she goes' rather than 'Full steam astern'.

To Warsaw, from Yerevan

Above: not a scheduled visitor at Okęcie, but an aircraft that's been here before; Armavia's Bombardier Regional Jet CRJ200 (EK20014). If you click to enlarge, you'll see Armenian script on the lower front fuselage; exotica indeed (it says Արմավիա - Armavia). The airline has only recently launched its Yerevan-Warsaw service, which flies Mon-Tue-Sun and is usually served by an Airbus A319. So this sighting's a rarity.

Spotter's bonus: just before the Armenian plane's arrival, some Polish-registered general aviation over our garden (below). Beechcraft Super King Air SP-DSA coming in to land.

Today I started shooting RAW format photos (rather than JPEGs). These need to be processed in Lightroom before going to Photoshop for cropping and final processing as low-res JPEGs, but the difference in quality is appreciable. JPEGs of aircraft are too contrasty; detail is lost in the undersides. From a RAW (or 'NEF' as Nikon's proprietary version of the format is called), you can extract more shadow and highlight detail. Uses up more disk space, but I'm happier with the results. Aircraft photos will be shot in RAW henceforth.

Above: Polish Air Force PZL M-28TD. Below: KLM Cityhopper Embraer ERJ190-100 PH-EZL

Below: my favourite jet airliner flying daily into Okęcie - the Avro RJ85 (this one operated by Brussels Airlines). A reasonable fine-weather weekend's spotting without having to leave my garden.

Literature and biology

The last two books I've read and the last film I watched have one thing in common - they were recommended to me by my own daughter. A gratifying point to have reached in one's life when one's own flesh and blood can point out to me glaring gaps in my literary experience, but discovering that a) I like the books very much and b) they are edifying. Moni has been recommending books, films and music to me since last summer when she suggested I read Anthony Burgess' A Clockwork Orange.

The books and latest film (I'll come on the titles later) have a common thread; the state of mind of the protagonist. Literary criticism of the second half of the 20th C. would often dip into psychology and psychoanalysis using Freudian tools to determine why the protagonist acted as he or she did.

Art describes life as the artist sees it; the science follows. And so looking at Albert Camus' L'Étranger in the light of current understanding of the human mind as well as advances in genetic science gives us new insights into how minds differ from one person to the next. The film, based on L'Étranger, is the Coen Brothers' The Man Who Wasn't There. I'm baffled as to why I've not seen it before, given my obsession with late '40s - early '50s USA and the fact I've seen every other Coen Brothers' film except the very latest one. An exquisitely filmed neo-noir movie, The Man Who Wasn't There is also about a man who kills yet is not a murderer yet is executed for murder. In both cases the protagonist/narrator is a deeply introverted man who ends up being the victim of keeping his thoughts to himself and demonstrates an extremely limited set of emotional responses to what's happening around him.

Putting the two into a clearly clinical context is Mark Haddon's 2003 novel The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night Time. Here, the protagonist/narrator is a 15 year old-boy with Asperger's Syndrome - an autism spectrum disorder. Because we know so much more today than we did in the 1940s, Haddon's protagonist has been diagnosed, and being highly intelligent, he understands the limitations of his own mind. Tomorrow's writers will be armed with the science that explains the behaviour. Shakespeare's protagonists have all been psychoanalysed. Soon we'll they'll have their genetic code unravelled. Will literary critics debate whether Lady Macbeth's obsessive behaviour was brought on by the codons in her mRNA being charged covalently with amino acids at their 3' terminal CCA ends?

What do I want for Poland

I want a modern, normal country, of which I can be proud. When I took the decision in 1997 to move to Poland with my (then) young family, a colleague at work in London mocked me. "America, Canada, Australia - I can understand. But you are emigrating to Poland?!? POLAND! That's some kind of a JOKE country!"

That hurt. I was brought up as a Pole in the UK, and returning to my fatherland was a form of destiny shaped by my upbringing - Polish school on Saturday mornings, Polish scouts on Saturday afternoons, Polish church on Sunday. I am here by choice, not by default. I won't have the beton Jarka element label me as unpatriotic; I want what I see is best for my country.

A modern, normal country. One where decent citizens can go about their daily, law-abiding lives, working in fulfilling jobs, paying taxes, trusting one another, trusting the Polish state, trusting their neighbours, employers, tax authorities and police. A country with decent universities, turning out graduates that are equipped for the labour market of tomorrow. Graduates that don't have to flee to foreign universities to get decent research fellowships. A country when research and development spend per capita is as high as it is in Scandinavia, the US or Japan. A country not dependent on jobs on low-cost manufacturing, but on high-value added high-tech industries and professional services.

Poland does have the people. I never cease to be amazed at the quality of young people - hard working, intelligent, well-read, highly-motivated; yet the country - the state - can't seem to get itself organised in such a way as to harness that energy to the full. Too many talented Poles leave Poland to make a career in foreign universities, foreign companies in foreign countries.

Year by year, Poland is moving away from joke-country status. Since we moved to Poland, it has become a member of NATO, the European Union, the OECD club of rich countries. Since 2004, Poland's GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity has risen from 54% of the EU average to 61%, and climbing fast. In 2003, Poland's economy was seven times smaller than the UK's. Today, it's only four-and-half times smaller. I want Poland to have a strong economy. For that to happen, the economy needs to be run by people who know about the economy. Here, I mistrust PO less than PiS. And that's what it boils down to.

I want a country of entrepreneurs, not bureaucrats. Poland does have one of the highest percentages of workforce employed in micro-businesses (employing one to nine employees) in the EU. That's basically one big ZUS dodge. The average Polish micro-business employs 1.3 people. The "entrepreneur" (read: 'self-employed person for tax reasons') and his wife doing the books one third full-time equivalent. Because it's too damned difficult for a sole trader to do it himself. The average British micro-business employs 3.7 people. That's healthier. Go up to the small firm level. Only 12% of the Polish workforce is employed in small businesses (10 to 49 employees). This is the lowest level in the EU. So medium- and large-size firms can go about their business without feeling the nip of competition at their heels - and can get away with charging higher prices and offering worse service than in the UK.

This needs reform.

In the UK, to be self-employed, you merely fill in two sides of a form (CWF-1) and send it to your local tax office. And you pay tax once a year. In Poland, you go through inordinately more bureaucracy to be able to call yourself a jednoosobowa działalność gospodarcza. In England, if you wish to tune pianos, trim decorative hedges, teach ballroom dancing or renovate classic cars, you just get on and do it and pay the taxman annually. In Poland, the citizen is not simply allowed to go out and earn his or her way - he or she must apply to the state for permission to do so, pay tax and ZUS and VAT monthly, and be subject to such rigorous supervision as to put off all but the hardiest souls. (In the UK, you are only obliged to pay VAT if your earnings exceed £70,000).

Put it another way; if Poland is to really take off as a country, it needs to make it much easier for people to start working for themselves, to employ other people; it must be easier to pay taxes.

Where's the political appetite for reform? Looking at the economic programme of the presidential candidates, I could only see real economic reformist zeal in Janusz Korwin-Mikke (slightly nutty party) and Andrzej Olechowski. Both marginal candidates without any significant party support.

As for two remaining candidates, the least-worst option is Bronisław Komorowski. Plodding and steady rather than an energetic driver for change, I feel he won't get in the way. I don't get that feeling about his opponent.