Sunday, 4 July 2010

Can we breathe easy?

Both exit polls give Bronisław Komorowski a narrow margin over Jarosław Kaczyński. TNS OBOP, for public broadcaster TVP, gave Komorowski 53.1% to Kaczyński's 46.9%. (Remember, TNS OBOP was far more accurate in its first-round exit polls). Millward Brown SMG KRC, for TVN, also gives it to Komorowski (51.8% to 48.2%) , as does Homo Homini (for Polsat) but with a wafer-thin margin of 51.1% to 48.9%. A mere 2.2 percentage points is well within the pollsters' margin of error.

It's too close to call. I'm not going to comment until every last vote has been counted. Tomorrow morning we shall see whether or not Poland has escaped five more years of political deadlock by the skin of its teeth. The metaphorical champagne remains corked. Until tomorrow, or until 2015, we shall see.

UPDATE: 05:07am PAP reports that Kaczyński leads by 50.4% to 49.6% with just over half the electoral districts having declared.

7 comments:

student SGH said...

I know it's not over yet but I strongly believe the results will not change that much to tip the balance for J. Kaczynski. This is just a matter of the margin - the narrower it is more the more likely it is that the result will be questioned.

Michael Dembinski said...

Well, I see Kaczyński's just made his concession speech.

"And I say to you that the great state of Mississippi cannot afford four more years of Pappy O'Daniel - four more years of cronyism... nepotism... rascalism... and service to the Interests! The choice, she's a clear one: Pappy O'Daniel, slave of the Interests; Homer Stokes, servant of the little man! Ain't that right, little fella?"

scatts said...

I must say I found the celebration and concession all a bit premature considering we can't possibly have counted all the votes yet and the difference is so small. Unbearably small.

48%, or thereabouts, of Poles actually want the duck to be President!?! WTF!!

student SGH said...

I heard his speech and I saw him back in top form. PiS members and voters will be close ranks and aim at victory and will be ready to play dirty.
He invoked the heritage of his brother and this is going to become a leitmotiv of his presence in politics...

student SGH said...

Scatts, two questions:

1. What those 48% of Poles have in common?

2. And why did they vote for Kaczynski?

If we don't answer these questions we'll be facing the victory of PiS in 2011. PO will be falling apart (they promised the moon and will go back on those promises) and PiS will be growing in power.

My optimism has worn off...

Sigismundo said...

Looks like Kaczyński has conceded - even says so on the BBC news website, so it must be true ( :-)

Phew... the idea of putting up with duckman#2 in the Polish media for 4 more years doesn't bear thinking about.

adthelad said...

Even more P.O. - if you haven't been made sick by their antics since they won the last election there may just be a glimmer of hope as you'll have the next 500 days to watch them go even further downhill. But there's always Komorowski to hold in high regard together with his best friend Palikot. Marvellous!