Brexit: heart v. head, migration v. economy

Economic growth in the UK slowed in the first quarter of this year - up 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, compared to 0.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. This slow-down in the growth of business activity was to be predicted. In the run-up to the referendum on continued EU membership, many investment decisions are on hold as businesses take a wait-and-see approach.

Apart from a handful of mavericks, hardly any economists or business organisations support Brexit. Most of the economic and financial calculations concerning the effects of Brexit point to a negative outcome. In particular, the debate about trade should be particularly convincing; outside the EU, the UK would have to renegotiate its trade agreements around the world. Countries - including Commonwealth members - will not be looking kindly at the prospect of having to sit round the negotiating table with Britain and haggle about issues that have already been settled (in trade agreements reached with the entire EU).

The question of whether a post-Brexit UK would be first or last in the queue to negotiate any future trade agreements seems spurious - when you're inside the shop, why rush to leave it so you can negotiate your way back in from the outside?

Trade means jobs, jobs are livelihoods for families. Trade also means investment. Many global corporations have invested in building factories in the UK to have a manufacturing base within the EU, with the benefits of a good business environment. Employers can see that. Economists can see that. It makes eminent economic sense for the UK to remain part of the world's richest trading bloc.

Norway and Switzerland have access to the EU single market, but without any say in determining the regulations that govern that market. The UK - a strong exporter of services - wants to complete (finally) the single European market in services. It is far less likely to do so outside the EU than within it.

Looking at the plethora of economic arguments around trade, investment, jobs and the economy, the Remain camp's warnings of the negative consequences of Brexit ring true.

Those in favour of Brexit are either comfortably well off - or indeed very wealthy. The mouthpieces for Brexit, the Daily Mail, the Daily Telegraph, the Daily Express, the Times and the Sun are owned by people who are not domiciled in the UK for tax reasons. These high net-worth individuals are insulated by any negative economic aftershocks of Brexit. "The economy is only growing by half a percent? Investors are pulling out and businesses are shedding labour? Welcome the bracing global economy!" I feel a visceral dislike for those who blithely promote Brexit knowing full well they will not be touched by its economic consequences.

But maybe it's not just about the economy? Sovereignty, taking back control of our borders, migration, I no longer recognise the land where I was born... 

Emotions. Feelings.

But back to the economy. Survey after survey has shown that the economic impact of EU migration to the UK is beneficial. EU migrants - and Poles are a significant part of that - generally come to the UK to work and pay taxes. [Once they find work here, they soon discover that generous tax-breaks - in-work benefits - mean they take home more than they expected, but that's another story.]

Non-EU migrants are more likely to be jobless, less likely to integrate with society at large. Non-EU migrants are not subject to EU rules, so if the UK wanted to 'take back control of its borders' - what's stopping it? Brexit will not make any difference.

Because EU migrants are a net contributor to the UK economy, any attempt to deny them access to the UK labour market will lead to a slow down in economic growth. The economy is not a zero-sum game; one job created here can create further, new, jobs elsewhere. Value added by a newcomer spreads around the economy.

Without access to a well-motivated and hard-working addition to the UK labour force, the economy will run out of steam. GDP growth will falter, and the UK will be increasingly hard-stretched to pay for its healthcare, social services, education and security.

The Brexiters are willing to accept that. For them, leaving the EU is the chance to embark on a Quixotic journey to seek the Lost Eldorado of a Golden Age, an age of politeness and deference, fair play and fair hair, a land where Everybody Knew Their Place. The Brexit campaign is led by the rich and privileged who would like to turn the UK into an offshore tax haven.

Scotland will no doubt secede from a post-Brexit United Kingdom, leaving a fragmented state drifting, friendless.

You cannot turn the clock back. The EU has proved amazingly successful at preventing war between its members. On the long march from barbarism to civilisation, the EU, an ongoing work in progress, has proved to be a step in the right direction. Stronger Together, Better In.

Finally, anyone comparing the EU to the USSR knows not what Katyń or Hlodomor or the Gulag mean.

This time last year:
Golf course update

This time three years ago:
Review of Krzysztof Osiejuk's latest book

This time four years ago:
The Shard changes London's skyline

This time five years ago:
In praise of Warsaw's trams

This time six years ago:
Plans for the railway line to Radom
[five and half years it took to go from plans to realisation]