Things will never be the same: Part III - Risk

For Bartek

How will social interactions look after the pandemic abates? asked Bartek over on Facebook. The answer lies in how we as individuals adjust our tolerance to risk.

Before Covid-19, whenever you left home, you always lived with the slightest risk of death, injury, infection, becoming the victim of crime, losing your wallet, keys, phone or other valuables. Risk is ever-present, we balance on the edge of chaos. Smoking poses a health risk, as does excessive alcohol consumption. These are risks we take, to varying degrees of consciousness.

We have an instinctive idea as to the size of that risk - some greater than others, some fairly minimal. That idea is built up over time in a heuristic manner; Bayesian inference. "I wasn't run over by a bus yesterday nor the day before, so I'm unlikely to be run over by one today." Scrambling up mountains of ballast on a building site to get a better photo. Crossing a railway line other than over a bridge or level crossing. Riding a motorbike. Taking risks means you have to be conscious of what you're doing - my mother's wise words - "Quid quid agis, prudenter agas, et respice finem" (Whatever you do, do prudently and be conscious of the [possible] outcome) ring in my ears when I undertake any activity that involves a modicum or risk. The risk is about balance; balancing, say, the pleasures of smoking (for those born with that particular gene), against the dangers of premature death. Driving too fast balanced with the risk of being involved in a car crash. We have some idea of the risks we are taking.

But post-Covid-19? Sauntering out into crowded buses, bars, cinemas, conference centres - should we as a society take that risk? Or is it down to individuals to assess the risk for themselves?

We will be slowly forced out of lockdown by economic pressures. Neither our governments nor our businesses can afford a lockdown that lasts indefinitely. The risk, that had until now been shouldered by the state, will pass to the individual.

How much risk are you prepared to take?

Would you wander into a leper colony or into a hospital ward full of patients with typhus? Without personal protective equipment? Or into a crowded bar full of strangers in the post-Covid-19 world? Read this blog post from Paul Garner, professor of infectious diseases and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine to see what the disease is like - even if you don't end up in hospital. Fancy your chances?

It's Russian roulette. But how many bullets, and how many chambers?

The actuaries are still out.

One in a million?

Let's look at Poland and the UK [source: Worldometers.info/coronavirus/]

UK: right now - active cases: 179,779

Poland: right now - active cases: 9,406

Let's assume, on the basis of countries with far higher rates of testing than either the UK or Poland, that for every confirmed case there are ten more wandering around, either as asymptomatic carriers, or showing only mild symptoms that don't merit medical attention.

So the UK has around 1,797,790 carriers of the virus. And Poland has 94,060.

The UK's population is 67.8 million. Poland's is 38.2 million. Your chance of meeting someone carrying the virus? In the UK, it's 1 in 38. In Poland, it's 1 in 406. Do you feel lucky? Your chances of catching it are slimmer if you both take precautions. Infected people touch door handles, parcels, packaging, hand rails. They cough and sneeze, spraying droplets into the air. If that infected virus carrier is wearing a mask, and you're also wearing a mask, the risk of infection falls dramatically. If you wash your hands after going out into the public - and develop the muscle-memory not to touch your face, the risk falls dramatically. If you ignore all the health advice - your risk of catching and spreading the virus further increases.

The virus isn't evenly spread around the country - there are geographic clusters of infection, and within those towns and cities there are hotbeds such as care home or hospitals. We know how long the virus can survive on door handles or on plastic work-tops (up to 72 hours). We know that washing your hands with soap, not touching your face, wearing a mask and giving a suitably wide berth to anyone not wearing a mask will decrease the chances of you catching it.

But catch it you still can - just like you can die in a road traffic accident. This Thursday in Poland, nine people died in road accidents; 14 died of Covid-19. [In the UK on Thursday, 539 died of Covid-19. In one day.]

As the pandemic (seems to) get less virulent, so governments need to unfreeze the economy. As this happens, the state will be relinquishing responsibility for its citizens' health - but the citizens themselves need to take that responsibility back. Vulnerable groups (high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, other pre-existing conditions, the elderly) should not venture out without exercising all possible precautions. I have noticed over the past few days that younger Poles have forgotten about masks in public, either dispensing with them all together, or else having them dangling loose and useless. Indoors they are more useful - mask-wearing remains de rigeur in shops.

The risk for the young is low. I won't be taking that risk myself - I will continue to wear a mask on in public, keep a small plastic bottle (from soy sauce in a sushi set!) filled with 95% spirytus rektyfikowany in my pocket as hand sanitiser, wear gloves and maintain a very generous social distance.

You might say I'm overdoing it - but the risk is as yet unknown. No doubt actuaries are working day and night on spreadsheets analysing all the factors that will determine how much risk there is out there. The simple answer is - we don't know. We're learning from day to day, but there's still a long learning curve ahead of us.

Will the virus mutate? It's mutating already, into milder and deadlier strains. Will it come back in a second wave? Likely, if societies and individuals let their guard down.

You take your risk. I'll take mine. As in my previous post, it's an age thing. If you're young, you have far more need to interact with your peers. It's part of your biology. At my age, real-life social interaction is far less important. I'm happy with things as they are - I'm not going to be putting myself into harm's way until the disease has been beaten. Part of this is a reliable antibody test. Could it be that I've already had Covid-19 but in a form so mild that I never even noticed it? Until there's a test available for antibodies in the bloodstream, I don't know. Will there be a vaccine for Covid-19 that's effective across all its various mutations? 

Don't know. These are just the known unknowns. There are unknown unknowns about Covid-19 that no one's yet pondered upon.

This time three years ago:
En Marche! [Polish regional bus 'network']

This time six years ago:
Jeziorki spring pictorial

This time seven years ago:
Kitten time

This time eight years ago:
Warsaw - Centrum to Jeziorki by train with super-wide lens

This time nine years ago:
Loose Lips Sink Ships - part II

This time ten years ago:
Jeziorki in the infra red

This time 11 years ago:
Some rain, at last!