A better tomorrow - human and economic geodiversity

I was lucky as a child to have travelled several time to the continent in the 1960s, holidays in Poland and France - with glimpses of life in Belgium, Germany and Czechoslovakia along the way. The differences were vast, even for a child, to see and feel and experience.

Just 22 miles across the Channel, France was entirely different to England; the smells (cigarette smoke from Galoises and mais Gitanes; the coffee-and-newsprint aroma of the café-tabac, wine cellars, fresh peaches, rotting fish in Boulogne and rural sewerage); the cars, (Citroëns, Panhards, Peugeots and Renaults driving on the other side of the road), the architecture of course - the typefaces even. Poland was even more exotic - though central Warsaw was relatively affluent, rural Poland was glaringly poor. Czechoslovakia was from another planet - huge red stars on the front of trams and trains, grim industrial town bereft of colour (Warsaw had bright neons), wet cobblestones and black Tatra cars scuttling about like gigantic trilobites. The things you could buy in shops in one country were completely different to those available in another - toys, for example. Warsaw's Centralna Składnica Harcerska was full of toys from across the Soviet bloc (mostly East German or Polish, as I recall); French shops stocked Norev toy cars, British shops had Corgis and Airfix.

Today, you can stroll through any European shopping mall (as I did through Galeria Mokotów) and without looking at the signage, it's hard to tell what country you're in, let alone what city. There's an Adidas, a Carrefour, a Chanel, an H&M, a Reserved, a Zara. The layouts are identical, driven by footfall algorithms. This homogeneity has been caused by globalisation and European integration, but I suspect that the future will see a reversal of this trend outside of our biggest cities, where corporations will hang on. Local character, local colour, local history and traditions and authenticity will be on a returning tide. The idea of going shopping in, say, Bydgoszcz and finding different shops selling different products to those sold in Białystok is appealing. A return to diversity - but within a borderless economic bloc. Will the same happen in the US - a nation of identical strip-malls coast to coast?

Here are my forecasts for how 2050 might well look across three sectors. Barring nuclear war or another deadly pandemic, or any other black-swan event. 

Food:
Locally grown, regionally traded. Artisan cheeses from French and Italian regions have long shown the way. Unique local tastes enjoyed across the continent. New specialities will emerge as a new generation of entrepreneur experiments with ingredients and techniques, seeking genuine innovation in taste. As meat becomes a luxury to be enjoyed sparingly, the gap it leaves behind will be filled by products as yet unknown - but far more likely to come from a local gastro start-up than from a corporation.

Produce will be as organic as possible, though with the knowledge that some pesticides are needed now and then. Human urine will make a comeback as a commonly-used fertiliser (lant - fermented urine, diluted one part to five with water). Brewing will return to being a local activity, with far less space for international brands that need transporting over long distances and mega advertising budgets. Same for mineral waters! New cultivars of fruit and veg will appear, products of human manipulation; old, forgotten ones will return. People from 2050 will look back at our time and wonder how we managed with so few varietals of the produce we ate. Regional distinctions, based on soil and climate, will be exacerbated.

Clothing:
Haute couture and fast fashion will be marginalised. Clothes will be designed to be durable and practical. Again, regional differences will begin to re-establish themselves. Old fabric, worn, but loved, shall be repurposed, authenticity and local provenance will win out over brands and labels. Clothes shall be washed less regularly - to save electricity, water and wear and tear on the fabric. Greys and browns, natural hues, will dominate - loud colours will be shunned as being 'old fashioned'. Craft skills will command premium prices, attracting more young people to acquire mastery in them. And tailors will mend and alter clothes, keeping them going longer. We shall still strive to have our own 'look' - but this will be less homogenous than it is today. 

Transport:
People will travel less, and walk more. Flying, in particular, will be seen as a shameful activity. Rail travel will become dominant mode of travel for inter-regional and shorter international trips, with massive investments in the infrastructure. Light rain and trams will make a comeback. Bicycles, electric bikes and scooters, will be the norm in cities, milder winters will help with this. There will be a strong classic car movement, dedicated to preserving surviving cars from history - but few amateurs will be interested in vehicles from the 2020s.

More predictions soon (healthcare, construction, energy, IT)!

This time last year:
Warka - small-town Poland's moving up

This time two years ago:

Summer działka joys

This time three years ago:

Local round-up

This time four years ago:
New Nikons on the way!

This time 10 years ago:
Work continues on S2, going under the railway lines

This time 11 years ago:
Stand Easy! - a short story

This time 14 years ago:
God Save The Queen - I mean it, Ma'am

This time 15 years ago:
Legoland, just outside Warsaw's borders