City centre vandalism

Centrum tram stop, Friday lunchtime. Some vandal has smashed the side window on the tram shelter. An unsightly sore on the face of Our City. Younger passers-by ignore the damage.

Shame on the perpetrator - a few days in the stocks would be a good solution - punishment I'd also recommend for fly-tippers who dump their old fridges, sofas and household waste in woods and fields.

Right: framed by the broken glass, a grey-haired passenger takes a moment to survey the damage. He's thinking what I'm thinking. In the background, the Novotel (formerly Forum) hotel on Rondo Dmowskiego. A cold wind's blowing, time to hurry back to the office on board a 35 tram.

Below: as the tram passes Pl. Zbawiciela, I snap the Tolerance Rainbow, which has been torched again by some nasty element.

This time last year:
Kebabville

This time two years ago:
The day I found a million zlotys

This time three years ago:
Making the most of winter

This time four years ago:
Progress along Ballay Street

This time five years ago:
Shortest, mildest, winter?

Pl. Unii Lubelskiej to Sady Żoliborskie by tram

Marszałkowska

Approaching Rondo Dmowskiego

Approaching Świętokrzyska

Near Pl. Bankowy

Andersa

Stawki

Rondo Babka

Arkadia

Pl. Grunwaldzki

Rain with snow, sleet, horrible. How Warsaw looks at night, out of focus, riding a 35 tram from Pl. Unii Lubelskiej to Sady Żoliborskie.

London's Underground is 150 today

Apologies for low blogging action this week - all will be revealed next Monday!

In the meanwhile, I should like to commemorate an important anniversary in the world of public transport - London's Underground is 150 years old today. It was on 10 January 1863 that the first train ran underground from Paddington Station, to the west of London's city centre, to Farringdon, just to the east. Just six kilometres long, the Metropolitan railway was to be extended in both directions, and would form the beginnings of the mighty Underground network that today encompasses 400 kilometres of track and 270 stations on 11 lines (Warsaw's Metro was opened in 1995, currently still has one line with 21 stations).


Above: Baker Street station on the Circle Line, one of the original stations along the Metropolitan railway. This photo was taken by me in 2007; then as now it still maintains much of the architectural atmosphere of the station when it was opened 150 years ago. Of course, in those days, trains were steam-hauled.

The next 150 years will see more and more of mankind clustering into big cities and agglomerations. Public transport - in particular that on rails - has a big future in getting people around the metropolises of tomorrow. Short-distance one-per-car commuting in large vehicles powered by fossil fuels (which has been common in the Western world since the end of WW2) will not last another 150 years.

This time last year:
My enemy's enemy is my...?

This time two years ago:
Some thoughts upon the Nature of Warfare

This time three years ago:
Snow so deep it needs a plough

This time four years ago:
A fieldfare in midwinter

This time five years ago:
Kraków, a bit of winter sunshine

Warsaw bids farewell to its old trams

Today's Gazeta Stołeczna informed Warsaw that today there would be a last chance to bid farewell to the Konstal 13N tram, finally withdrawn from regular service last week after 53 years of continuous duty. I shall miss them; a tangible link to my childhood visits to Warsaw. A sentimental journey, to pay homage to the old trams, was therefore in order. Below: 13N no. 836 at Rondo Waszyngtona, in front of the National Stadium.

Below: the special excursions proved very popular with a wide cross-section of Varsovians. Running between the loops at Teatr Powszechny and Pl. Narutowicza, the farewell service ran all afternoon and into the evening. I hope it will be reprised at this year's Noc Muzeów ('museum night') in May, but I guess that most 13Ns will have been scrapped by then. A handful will be kept on as heritage trams.

Left: the front of the trailer car. The driver's position has been removed, leaving a perching-post for students to sit on, typically with girlfriend on knee. Note also the three steps that must be climbed to enter the tram - not at all friendly to parents with toddlers or prams, the disabled or elderly passengers. The new-style Swing trams are much easier to board and to alight from.

The doors open and close in a sharp and noisy manner; the sound of the trams' acceleration and deceleration was also characteristic. In winter (+1C today), the wind would whistle through numerous cracks and openings. Not too comfortable, but back in the early 1960s, this was grand style.

Click on the video below (courtesy of Mat at Naokolo.pl.blog) who concurs that this is indeed the best seat in the tram.



Good to have the new Swings on our streets in ever-increasing numbers, but still, I will miss the 13Ns. Farewell.

This time five years ago:
Five departures from Okęcie

Poland's roads get slightly less deadly

Let us hope that this is now a clear trend.

The number of people killed on Poland's roads last year was 3,540; a 16% fall on 2011. The 2012 figures, collated by Poland's Central Polish HQ, were published in today's Rzeczpospolita. Ten years earlier, in 2002, the number of fatalities was over 5,800; back in 1991 it was a staggering 7,900. Indeed, since the end of communism, the number of Poles who have lost their lives in road accidents tops 140,000. What an appalling, senseless, waste of human lives.

While this fall in road accident fatalities is to be welcomed, it's still an appalling fact that last year three and half thousand human lives have been cut short. In good measure due to drivers' excess speed and bravura behind the wheel.

Coinciding with the publication of last year's road accident statistics was the news that motoring journalist Maciej Zientarski was sentenced to three years imprisonment and an eight-year driving ban for causing the accident, in February 2008, which left a fellow motoring journalist, Jarosław Zabiega, dead. Zientarski had been driving a Ferrari down ul. Puławska at 150kmh, three times the speed limit at that point. The car left the road and flew into a concrete flyover support.

Speed cameras are beginning to appear across Warsaw - at last, I might add. In the UK, they have significantly contributed to the lowering of the death toll on the roads, which is three times lower than in Poland (UK: 1,901 fatalities = 31 per million inhabitants; Poland: 3,520 fatalities = 92 per million population). And note that the UK figures are for 2011, and the trend has been falling for many years now, so 2012 should be lower.

Speed cameras are highly controversial in Poland (as they were in the UK while they were being introduced on a mass scale in the 1990s). Populist politicians rail against them, hoping to catch votes. Populist media do likewise, to sell more papers. "How dare the authorities fine motorists for exceeding speed limits!", they all wail.

The UK experience is that the proportion of fatal road accidents in which excessive speed was a contributory factor has fallen from 25% to 12%. In Poland, according to the latest police statistics, this is 45%. In the UK, speed cameras have played a significant part in changing the mentality of drivers; blasting along the highways at illegal speeds is no longer seen as being big or clever.

Yet in Poland, even intelligent, Rzeczpospolita readers see speed cameras as an affront to their egos and a threat democratic rights. Rzepa's readers in the poll on the subject, believe with a massive margin that there are too many speed cameras. Twice as many express that view than those who think there are too few, or there are enough, or those with no opinion or who don't care - put together.

The new speed camera on ul. Puławska by the LukOil petrol station on Kuropatwy was put up to enforce the 50kmh limit at the pedestrian crossing there. Before the camera was erected, traffic would typically drive through this stretch at 100kmh or more. Now, drivers all meekly slow down.

Good. I've personally witnessed the aftermath of two fatal accidents on Puławska, and wish to see no more.

Human life is more precious than the right to dash along public highways.

This time last year:

It's expensive being rich in Warsaw

This time three years:
Winter commuting in colour and black & white

This time four years ago:
Zamienie in winter

This time five years ago:
Really cold (-12C at night)

LOT's second Dreamliner over Jeziorki

Last month, LOT Polish Airlines took delivery of their second Boeing 787 Dreamliner, and we were fortunate enough to catch it flying in a cloudless blue sky on our New Year's walk around Jeziorki. Weather conditions, for the record - most clement; +5C, southerly winds.

The second Dreamliner, registration SP-LRB, is carrying out technical trial flights, while the first one, SP-LRA, is currently flying fare-paying passengers on short-haul flights (Prague, London Heathrow etc). These shake-down flights are intended to get crew and mechanics familiarised with the new machines (the first in Europe) before they start flying to far-off destinations in Asia or North America.

It is a most handsome aircraft, with a shape that's instantly recognisable; subtly more modern that other large twin-jet passenger airliners like the Boeing 767 or Airbus A330. LOT's Dreamliner fleet will augmented by SP-LRC, -LRD and -LRE by mid-March. There are, of course, question marks re: Polish government support for the ailing state-owned airline and whether the EU will accept further state aid (think of Alitalia and Olympic airlines).

Also notable in the skies over Okęcie right now is the vast number of WizzAir and RyanAir flights diverted here from Modlin while the new airport has its runway refurbished (already!) and ILS installed (fog has plagued the airport from late autumn on). The works are due to be completed by the middle of this month, let's wait and see, but until then, Okęcie is busier than ever.

Another newcomer to Okęcie is Qatar Airlines, which launched its Warsaw-Doha service last month (cost of return flight? Around 4,000 zlotys/€1,000). The two capitals are linked by four flights a week. Emirates will start flying into Okęcie next month thus vastly improving air links from Poland to the Middle East.

This time last year:
New Year's coal train

This time five years ago:
Winter train

2012 hellos

2012 was a good year for new things appearing that would significantly improve life in Warsaw and Jeziorki.

Hello to Lidl Jeziorki - despite my initial misgivings, the new store, opened in March has changed my shopping habits; hello to Most Północny, Warsaw's northern-most crossing of the Vistula, opened in March; hello to Google Street View for Poland; hello to Eurolot's new fleet of Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 NextGens (first deliveries in May); hello to the floral rainbow on Pl. Zbawiciela, unveiled in May and which survived a torching, and is likely to become as much a feature of Warsaw as the ten-year old palm tree on Rondo de Gaulle'a; hello to the A2 motorway extended from Stryków (north of Łódź) to Konotopa (south-western edge of Warsaw), opened in June; hello to Modlin Airport (currently closed for runway repairs and ILS installation), opened in July; hello to the Veturilo rent-a-bike system in Warsaw (1 August); hello to the Mars exploration vehicle Curiosity, sending us images from the surface the Red Planet since August; hello to the viaduct carrying ul. Poloneza over the (as yet unfinished) S2 Southern Warsaw bypass, opened in November after three years; hello to some great new works of street art that have appeared this year, commemorating Warsaw's local heros; completion of refurbishment at Warsaw's royal parks (Łazienki and Wilanów) in November; hello to the Boeing 787 Dreamliner operated by LOT, first two deliveries in November and December.

Local hellos to pedestrian crossings on ul. Karczunkowska (by Sarabandy, at the Trombity bus stops and at ul. Nawłocka) and to the massive drainage works between ul. Trombity, Dumki and Kórnicka, started this autumn, and the ponds on ul. Pozytywki (Thanks to Paweł Osiński for reminding me!) Ah! and at last the new cycle- and wheelchair-friendly footbridge over Puławska opened in July. Yes, and the yellow speed camera on Puławska between Karczunkowska and Auchan, which meant that since November, motorists started taking the 50kmh sign by the LukOil garage very seriously.

Have I missed anything else?

Wish list for 2013: connection of ul. Trombity to the sewerage system, a pavement for ul. Karczunkowska. Eleven years we've waited - enough is enough, already!

Forecasts past and present

This time last year, I made some macroeconomic forecasts for 2012. On some, I was insufficiently pessimistic (I forecast Poland's GDP to grow by 2.0% in the year to Q3, it actually grew by a mere 1.4%), some over-pessimistic (unemployment in November was 12.9% compared to my forecast of 14.5%, while inflation at 2.8% in November was lower than the 4.0% I'd forecast). Similarly, the UK and the eurozone showed lower inflation and lower unemployment than I predicted. But I was overly pessimistic about GDP in both cases.

Note: Polish unemployment figures include a fair few who are economically active (in the grey economy) yet sign on to maintain state healthcare benefits. Eurostat's figures for Poland show unemployment running at 10.4% - which suggest that around one-fifth of Polish claimants are abusing the system.

While the zloty proved remarkably stable during the course of 2012, it ended the year stronger against both the pound (5.00 rather than 5.15 forecast) and against the zloty (4.10 rather than 4.20). I got the euro to the pound spot-on (1.22). Weather - I was right about the early snow, wrong about a white Christmas for Warsaw (just dirty left-over snow, but no fresh falls).

So then... my quick calls for 2013...

Key economic indicators: Poland
	2012 (latest data)	2013 (same time this year)
GDP growth	1.4% (Q3)	0.8% (Q3)
Unemployment	12.9% (Nov)	13.8% (Nov)
Inflation	2.8% (Nov)	2.6% (Nov)

Key economic indicators: UK
	2012 (latest data)	2013 (same time this year)
GDP growth	0.1% (Q3)	0.8% (Q3)
Unemployment	7.8% (Sep)	7.5% (Sep)
Inflation	2.7% (Nov)	2.5% (Nov)

Key economic indicators: Eurozone
	2012 (latest data)	2013 (same time this year)
GDP growth	-0.6% (Q3)	-0.1% (Q3)
Unemployment	11.7% (Oct)	11.9% (Oct)
Inflation	2.2% (Nov)	2.4% (Nov)

All in all, I do not share JP Morgan's prediction that 2013 will be 'the first post-crisis year'; I think the global economy will continue bumping along the bottom, and that Poland will have a harder time next year than either in 2012 or indeed 2014. Cheers!

I predict that the EU 2014-2020 budget will somehow be cobbled together in a messy compromise around February, and Poland will do well out of it, with €70 billion earmarked for structural and cohesion funds.

And currencies - on 31 December 2013, I predict 1 GBP will be 5.22 PLN, 1 EUR will be 4.32 PLN, and 1 GBP will be 1.25 EUR.

I will not bother predicting the weather - it's become way too unpredictable!

This time last year:
Economic predictions for 2012

This time two years ago:
Classic cars, West Ealing

This time three years ago:
Jeziorki 2009, another view

This time four years ago:
Jeziorki 2008, another view

This time five years ago:
Final thoughts for 2007