Tuesday, 22 April 2014

Lent's over - now what?

After 46 days successfully eschewing alcohol, meat, confectionary, added sugar, salt, fast foods, salt snacks, and working on reducing my stomach circumference - it's all over. Question - return to pre-Lenten ways?

Here are my conclusions.

Exercise: The reason my regime has gone so much better this year than in the past (I've shaved nearly 4cm off around my middle - from 102.2cm to 98.5cm) is that I've been recording output in a spreadsheet. Very good motivation.

Sit-ups - by the end of Lent, 110 in the space of 3 minutes, twice a day, the daily norm. I intend to keep this up, limiting the exercise time to three minutes, no longer. My record in this space is 126 sit-ups (from back on floor, to elbows touching knees) in that 180-second time frame. My target circumference (tape-measure around the navel, the fattest part) is 91.5cm, (36"), so a long way to go.

I shall also continue with walking, aiming for a daily target of 10,000 paces. I'm managing to do this comfortably. In the first quarter of this year, I walked 730 km. Walking is extremely good exercise, low-impact, natural, useful. Give up the car and you can achieve 10,000 paces too.That's around 8km a day, around an hour and a half if you take it easy, an hour and a quarter if you walk briskly.

Exercise on its own will not get you shedding cms and kgs, nor will any kind of sensible diet. The two need to go in combination with one another. This I will continue to do.

Sugar - fatal stuff. Cakes, confectionary - no good. Useless, empty calories, the equivalent of heating a house using firelighters. We can all live without sugar. No return to it for me (unless naturally occurring in fruit). One thing I will keep eating though is chocolate, as pure as possible. Lindt has just brought out a 99% chocolate. It's very good for the brain - if the sugar content's minimal, it's OK.

Salt - unlike sugar, it is needed by the human body, but in far smaller doses than we give it. I was shocked when returning to my staple soup (Barszcz ukraiński by Profi) just how unpleasantly, artificially salty it tasted after after 46 days without salt. I pledge to keep the salt cellar beyond arm's length. And to keep off the salt snacks (crisps, salted peanuts etc) for good.

Alcohol - giving it up was without any problems. Yes, it was a bit limiting in social functions, but no adverse physiological symptoms noted. I shall go on as I started at the beginning of this year - drinking only in company, never on my own, not exceeding the UK Government's safe limit of 21 units a week.

Caffeine - giving it up all together was pointless; huge withdrawal headaches, and besides not drinking coffee is bad for the brain (memory, increased Alzheimer's' risk). As for Lent, I shall continue with one coffee per day (20gm of ground coffee made in an espresso machine), then herbal or fruit teas. Although green tea, an antioxidant, is healthy too.

The hardest part is the five portions of fresh fruit and veg a day, now being upped to seven. This requires a huge effort. Fruit juice only counts towards one; the bulk of the five/seven should be veg, brocolli being considered the healthiest of them all. I very rarely do five, a usual day it's three. So more work here.

Next year's Lent starts 15 days earlier than the rather late 6 March start in 2014.

This time last year:
Completely in the dark

This time two years ago:
Ruch Palikota - a descent into populism

This time three years ago:
I cross two unfinished bridges

This time four years ago:
What's the Polish for 'grumpy'?

This time five years ago:
Do not take this road!

This time six years ago:
Seated peacock, Łazienki Park

This time seven years ago:
Spirit of place: 1930s Kentucky - or Jeziorki?

Sunday, 20 April 2014

New roads to join Karczunkowska from the south?

Following a tip-off from Marcin Daniecki, I took a stroll to the site of the new Biedronka store by PKP W-wa Jeziorki to see whether the access road will be connected to Mysiadło. Not in the near future, is my verdict, though the access road has been built in such a way as to make it possible to extend through to ul. Borówki in Mysiadło, although that's likely to be years into the future.

Below: the junction of the new access road looking east down ul. Karczunkowska. Note the new Piesi ('pedestrians') roadsign. So much cheaper than actually building a pavement.


Below: the weighbridge station is a reminder of the old rampa na kruszywa (aggregates loading station) that once stood here. Sando Inmobilieria's plans to build a huge estate here with several hundred new dwellings came to naught, although the Spanish developer did manage to raze the loading ramp to the ground. The land nearest Karczunkowska has been used to build a shop (in the distance), so at least that's come in useful.


Below: the end of the (access) road. Note the radius of the pavement and the profile of the kerb - the access road has been built in such as way as to accommodate an extension of ul. Borówki through to Karczunkowska - although on my walk in the direction of Mysiadło, I saw no sign that this might be coming in the foreseeable future.


On then, to check out the situation on ul. Kurantów. Could this road be extended southwards towards Nowa Wola and the new estates that have sprouted up round the back of Zgorzała?


It would be a great shame if that were to happen.Ul. Kurantów is a peaceful cul-de-sac, with a pedestrian gate at the southern end allowing walkers to head east towards ul. Gogolińska, which runs parallel.


Below: passing through the gate and turning right, an abandoned farmstead. Looking around here, I cannot see any way of extending Kurantów southwards; to do so, it would have to run through private land, which is too expensive around here for the local authorities - especially since both Warsaw and Lesznowola gmina would be involved.


It would make more sense for Lesznowola to tarmac ul. Gogolińska (it is tarmacked up to Warsaw's boundary). At least this 'road' currently exists. At the south end, Gogolińska connects up with the new estate beyond (below). Click to enlarge; note Mysiadło ends where Warsaw Jeziorki leaves off. Someone's stolen the 'Warsaw ends here' from the post on the right.


Below: looking north towards Jeziorki beyond the treeline. Gogolińska is a dirt track, the width of one car; extending it through to the new estate would mean buying land on either side to widen it so cars could pass.


Below: provisional footpath from ul. Gogolińska to the platform at W-wa Jeziorki station. It's visible from space (check it out on Google Earth). To get from here to the station the official way requires a detour of over a third of a kilometre, and risking heavy traffic at the level crossing. Of course, it is neither the duty of PKP PLK nor of ZDM, Warsaw's road administration, to formalise this footpath for the convenience and safety of passengers. Each working day, over 70 cars park along ul. Gogolińska; it is an informal park+ride solution for drivers wishing to catch a train in Zone One.


My guess is that things will stay as they are for many years. People living in Mysiadło, Nowa Wola and Zgorzała will remain without an alternative to ul. Puławska or ul. Postępu.

This time last year:
Lighter, longer lens

This time two years ago:
Warsaw's grand Central Station

This time four years ago:
Making sense of Polish politics

Tuesday, 15 April 2014

Another attack on the car industry - from Forbes

Three days after my post on why the world's car industry needs to re-think its entire business model, this piece from that bastion of American free-market capitalism, Forbes, essentially arguing a very similar case. If you can't be bothered to read the whole thing, here's the intro...
Young people are losing interest in driver’s licenses. Cars have climbed to near-record prices. Increasingly, Americans are looking at alternatives to cars, like public transportation, bike sharing and rides from Uber.
So it's not just in western Europe that peak car is happening. The US auto industry is also facing a serious demographic threat from young consumers.

Another factor I didn't mention in my previous post related to the car is air pollution. Not yet an issue out in the open in Warsaw as it is in London, Paris, Athens or Beijing - but it will be.

See this survey by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe about how many lives could be saved if the same number of people across Europe travelled by bicycle as they do in Copenhagen (where 26% of the population cycles to work). The UNECE report suggests that in London alone, raising the number of journeys undertaken by bicycle from 3% to 25% would cut the number of premature deaths caused by air pollution by over 540 a year. In Warsaw, where 5% of journeys are by bike, the number of deaths prevented would be over 190 a year.

London was hit by some serious air pollution at the beginning of this month, with warnings on TV not to conduct strenuous exercise outdoors, and to keep vulnerable groups of people inside.

This article on Politics.co.uk suggests that 4,000 Londoners a year die from air pollution, and yet politicians are afraid to tackle the issue. Again, here's a highlight...
Across the UK, more than one in twenty deaths each year are now caused in part by air pollution. That's almost 30,000 people whose deaths could be avoided. But while politicians queue up to warn about the dangers of sugar and passive smoking to children, very few are willing to say anything about the deaths our addiction to cars has caused.
In London, no doubt here in Warsaw air quality will get worse before it gets better. In the meantime, don't drive if you really don't have to.

This time last year:
Bicycle shake-down day

This time two years ago:
40 years on - Roxy Music's first two albums

This time four years ago:
Twenty years, ten months, six days
[Spooky coincidence]

This time six years ago:
Swans still in Jeziorki

Saturday, 12 April 2014

Challenges for the car industry

From 1970 to 2010, the aviation industry has managed to decrease the amount of fuel consumed per passenger by 73%, the car industry managed a meagre 17% decrease. Why? Cars have been getting bigger and heavier, needing ever more powerful engines to propel them, which all but mitigate the efforts to make those engines more efficient. Why? Because the motor industry tells us that's what we want.

Since its launch in 1974, the Volkswagen Golf, now in its seventh generation, has become progressively longer and wider. Although the latest Golf has shed some weight and a little height, it's still over 50% heavier than the original Mk I. Indeed, the VW Polo, one segment smaller than the Golf, outgrew its original bigger brother after just three generations. Since the Polo grew so big, VW launched the Up! as a car for the smallest 'A' segment - and yet the Up! is longer, wider, taller and heavier than the original Mk I Polo. The current Golf, meanwhile, is now bigger than a 1970s Ford Cortina Mk III, which at the time was classed as a large family car. And, at over 1.2 tonnes, the Golf is as weighty as a 1970s Ford Zephyr Mk IV - a full-size luxury car.


VW Golf   Launch year   Length (m)   Width (m)   Height (m)   Weight* (kg)  
Mk 1 1974 3.705 1.610 1.395 790
Mk 2 1982 3.985 1.665 1.415 910
Mk 3 1992 4.074 1.694 1.422 960
Mk 4 1997 4.148 1.735 1.440 1050
Mk 5 2003 4.205 1.759 1.479 1155
Mk 6 2009 4.199 1.779 1.479 1217
Mk 7 2013 4.255 1.799 1.452 1205
* Unladen weight of base model in range.      Data source: de.wikipedia.org.  

The main reason that cars have nearly doubled in weight over the past half-century has been because they are being engineered to be safer in the event of a high-speed impact, a side effect of the fact that the car industry has been making the cars ever more powerful, with faster acceleration and higher top speeds.

It's a vicious circle from which the car industry needs to snap free, especially in view of the industrialisation of China, India and behind them, Africa.

On Thursday, I went to BP's Energy Outlook to 2035, a fascinating presentation about how the oil company sees the world energy supply and demand shaping up over the next two decades. Today, there are 1.1 billion cars on our planet, serving 7 billion people. By 2035, BP forecasts that 8.7 billion people will be driving around in 2.3 billion cars. The energy demand for these vehicles, the equivalent of 2 billion tonnes of oil, is around half of all of mankind's energy needs in 1965.

The biggest growth in energy demand for transportation is expected to come from China (up by 120% to 2035). In Europe, 'peak car' has been reached, along with a demographic peak. Young Europeans are less eager to spend their hard-earned money on a car. As I pointed out two months ago, western Europe has ceased to be a growth market for the car makers; the average age of a new car buyer in German is over 52 years and only 27% of all new car buyers in Germany were under 45.

Will China and India catch up with the West in terms of car ownership? For the sake of the planet - let's hope not - at least if we're talking about fossil-fuel powered cars. There are signs of hope - in China at least. The current smogs plaguing Beijing and other Chinese cities will no doubt cause the monolithic Communist Party to quickly pass laws to reduce emissions. And China's leaders are keeping their cities from sprawling outward into endless exurbs, as well as investing heavily in public transport.

But all the same, the car industry must show signs that it is moving in a more sustainable way. Lighter materials such as aluminium (which costs more to smelt, but which is more resistant to corrosion than steel) is one solution. But in general, the car industry must start to built cars that are smaller, less powerful, use less energy to build and to propel.

We really don't need to drive as much as we do. Certainly in cities, public transport, walking and cycling are better and healthier than commuting by car. Inter-urban transport is best served by coach, rail or air, with hire cars at the destination for those who really need them. IT solutions, collaborative consumption models (car sharing, car pooling) assisted by accelerating urbanisation will all help slow down the growth of demand for car ownership. IT can also make cars much safer; linking the car via a black box and GPS to an insurance provider, safe, energy-efficient driving can be rewarded with lower premiums. And lower taxes?

BP's forecasts suggest that despite global GDP rising by around 30% between now and 2035, CO2 emissions will rise by 10%. Still way too much from the point of climate change, but at least we can see a decoupling of economic activity from fossil-fuel usage. BP also sees production of conventional petrol, diesel or LNG-powered cars falling to some 25% of the total by 2035, with LNG taking a rising share of that; hybrids and pure battery-powered cars are expected to account for three-quarters of the cars manufactured in 20 years time.

But at the heart of it, car design must change. To date, it's been focused on building something to impress. Grand image-statements that project power, authority and prestige. By playing on mankind's inherent insecurity, the car industry has been able to sell people something bigger, more powerful and ultimately more wasteful than is necessary. (Unlike the aviation industry. Airlines will always chose the most cost effective product.) This wastefulness cannot continue. From time to time something rare happens and the industry comes up with something classless and stylish - like the original Mini or the new Fiat 500 - small, frugal cars that trendy people can appear fashionable in. (Can you think of any others?)

Cars should be made as small and as light as practicable, built for fuel efficiency and reliability rather than for speed and ego-boosting appeal. If not, the developed markets of North America, the EU and Japan will see declining car sales over the forthcoming decades.

This time two years ago:
Painting the Novotel Orange

This time five years ago:
That's what I like about the North

Friday, 11 April 2014

Wes Anderson's Central Europe: The Grand Hotel Budapest

Moni has long been a huge fan of the works of director-screenwriter Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom, The Royal Tenenbaums, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Darjeeling Express), so his latest film, The Grand Hotel Budapest, was one to see. Set mainly in flashbacks to 1932, in the Republic of Zubrowka , an Anglo-Saxon invention equating to Anthony Hope's Ruritania or the Marx Brothers' Freedonia, employing a blend of Germanic, Slavic and Hungarian-sounding place names.

The film itself is a delightful confection, beautifully shot, pleasing on the eye. And it's laugh-out-loud hilarious, its humour deriving from witty dialogue, situation, slapstick and sight gags in equal measure.

Wes Anderson's vision of Central and Eastern Europe, its physical appearance and its bloody 20th Century history is of particular interest. His visual depictions of Zubrowka (its currency, the Klübeck), were marvellous; the faded grandeur contrasting with its imperial splendour, the cobbled streets, the misty mountains, snow-covered fields; and the history with its social inequalities, jackbooted invasions, ethnic cleansing, and a communist takeover.

Bearing in mind that 80% of Americans don't know where Ukraine's borders are (something they have in common with Mr Putin), Wes Anderson's childlike knowledge of this part of the world is intriguing. We're playing with stereotypes here, as did Sacha Baron-Cohen with Borat's Kazakhstan.

As a teenager growing up in West London, then later as a student in Warwickshire, I too had a fascination with that same atmosphere. I could have placed that Mitteleuropäische klimat within a wide arc from Mazovia to Moravia, memories of travels to Poland through Czechoslovakia as a child in the 1960s, driving at night along cobbles through walled mediaeval towns; shuttered windows, turreted roofs, tramlines, unfamiliar signs, funny cars, militia men with lollipop sticks, steam trains and a pervasive smell of low-octane petroleum.

A film I must see again, although I must confess while a delight for the eye and the funny bone, not one with much depth to it. So much effort went into the sets, the costumes, the artwork - a bit more could have gone into the scriptwriting to make the audience ponder...

Towards the end of the jailbreak sequence, and during the entire ski chase sequence, I found myself feeling that I'm not learning anything here - it's not like spending 90 minutes with the Coen Brothers. But it's not the characters nor the story that I'd go to see The Grand Hotel Budapest again for, nor to look for some message; rather I'd return for that splendid and rather playful depiction for a world that has vanished. We can still pick up echoes of it in Poland, as I did this very morning in Wrocław, getting off the night train on my way to chair a conference...

Just arrived at Wrocław Główny station...
Tramlines at dawn. Time to find a bank and change my Klübecks
Work goes on to preserve the character of 19th Century Breslau
This time last year:
Warsaw 1935: a 3D depiction of a city that's no longer with us

This time two years ago:
Cats and awareness

This time four years ago:
Why did this happen?

This time five years ago:
Britain's grey squirrels turning red