Monday 10 October 2011

Remember this number - 231. Two-three-one.

Two hundred and thirty one seats - this is how many are needed to form a majority in Sejm (lower house of Poland's parliament). The entire Sejm is composed of 460 seats.

According to the latest communique from the PKW (state electoral commission) issued two hours ago, with some 67% of all the votes counted, PO would have 191 seats, PiS 162, PSL 42 seats, Ruch Palikota 36 seats, and SLD 28 seats. On this basis, compared to last night's exit polls, PSL has come third, and together with PO can form a majority government (233 seats). Now, PO and Ruch Palikota can't (a mere 227 seats).

So it's a 'steady as she goes' government, supported by a like-minded president (unlike the situation four years ago, with the late President Lech Kaczyński tending to veto reforming initiatives). Palikot did not quite make it big enough to get his radical agenda into government, while the big loser of the night was the post-communist SLD, lacking leadership and with much of the fire in its belly appropriated by Palikot.

UPDATE: At 9:04 the PKW gave results on the basis of 93% of votes counted. This nudges PO up to 206 seats as the urban results come in, PiS down to 157. But what's interesting is that Palikot has now overtaken PSL into third place with 40 seats, with the agrarians slipping (heavily) to a mere 30 seats. A PO-PSL coalition still makes sense, but Palikot now has a much stronger argument in any discussions re: forming a government.

LOCAL UPDATE: I'm delighted to be able to report that turnout in our polling station (the school on ul. Sarabandy) was 75.4% (compared to a national turnout of 48.6%).

This time last year:
Touched by greatness

This time two years ago:
Fixed wheeling around Jeziorki

This time three years ago:
One day, this will all be asphalt

This time four years ago:
Ireland

4 comments:

DC said...

Have you seen any more data about who voted? Old v young, rural v urban?

student SGH said...

I must say my polling station can boast about lower turonout - mere 75.23%. PO scored here 48.35% of all votes. SLD would get in at all if residents of NI were the only ones to vote.

PS. Saw Paulina got one vote in your station...

Overall Paulina scored 434 votes, 409 people voted for Toyah, both stay out.

Michael Dembinski said...

@ DC: Demographics of the election? Click here - it's in Polish, but user-friendly infographics will give you all the answers.

@ Bartek - our blogging colleagues did not do well - too low down the lists. Why do parties bother with such long lists? Surely it only serves to dilute their vote?

DC said...

Thank you. How interesting that 63% of Palikot voters are men. Not what I expected with liberalized abortion one of their planks.