Brexit: the price of populism

There are but three scenarios, all three look impossible.

1) Mrs May's deal pays money to the EU, keeps the UK under EU laws for some while, threatens to split the United Kingdom, while at the same time taking the UK out of the EU's decision-making processes. It is stupid.

2) The no-deal scenario sees the UK crashing out of the EU from one day to the next, without regard as to how trade will flow - things like food and medicines and bank transfers and pensions. It is suicidal.

3) The UK comes to its senses, realises that it was lied to by charlatans, disaster capitalists, unfriendly foreign powers, and that being a member of the EU was no bad thing. But this means going back on the referendum result.

After two and half years of hapless negotiation, with an unhealthy rotation of key ministers, the UK has a withdrawal agreement that satisfies neither the 'hard' Brexiteers who demand a clean break with the EU and its institutions, and the Remainers, who, well, want the UK to remain in the EU. The result is that Mrs May's deal commands neither a parliamentary majority nor popular support.

Current polling (poll of polls) shows that in a three-way referendum, that is Remain vs Leave with Deal vs Crash out with No Deal, Remain comes first, followed by no deal, with deal somewhere down there at the bottom. In a two-way vote, Remain beats No Deal, but No Deal beats Leave with Deal, and Remain beats Leave with Deal. Were there to be a second referendum, the key issue would be - "what's the question". The second issue would be "is there time to prepare a referendum before 29 March, the day when, should there not be any agreed deal in place, the UK crashes out of the EU.

The prospect of a general election could break this log jam, but the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011 requires a vote of no confidence in the government, or a two-thirds majority voting for an early general election [the English language lacks the word przedterminowy - 'before the due date']. The chance of Tory rebels voting against their party and government to create a situation in which Labour - headed by the most left-wing party leader since Michael Foot - could win power - is slim.

And so the logjam continues, with no direction shown. Meanwhile, business is taking steps to avoid the disruption that sudden customs checks would cause at the border ports, and the regulatory disruption of the financial services sector losing passporting rights. Thousands of UK manufacturing firms have already set up production and/or logistics facilities on the continent to ensure continuity of supply to their clients. Many large UK financial institutions established new business entities on the continent (or Ireland) which are fully compliant with EU regulations. London's loss is Brussels' or Paris's gain.

These two and half years of uncertainty have also held back investment in the UK, have dented consumer confidence (November 2018 was the worst month for retailing 'in living memory') and have focused the attention of government on Brexit at the expense of other problems, social and economic.

A country which once led the G7 in terms of economic growth has become the rich world's laggard.

And over in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is feeling very satisfied. He loathes the EU - loathes the way that 28 countries can cooperate peacefully to construct a single market - and has been doing his best to rip it apart. And it's working. Strikes in Paris, Merkel leaving the stage - and at this time when the UK and its allies in Scandinavia and Central Europe could be recreating the EU, no longer in the direction chosen by the Paris-Berlin axis - the UK is leaving. And the UK faces the threat of falling apart itself. Putin's long-term hybrid war with the West is paying off; his agents, his slush-funds, his troll armies, his useful idiots, all weapons in his armoury, have helped fragment the unity of the West that acted as a bulwark against Russian revanchism for so long.

There is hope, and it's to be found in Washington. Three of Trump's people will be starting prison sentences. More will follow. The investigations into Trump's links with Russia (that go back to 1984) will undoubtedly reveal the seriousness of Russia's plot to install Trump into the White House. And there are many links between the way Russia did that with the way Russia worked to ensure a Leave win in the Brexit referendum. Should these facts come out into the open by the the middle of January, when Mrs May presents her Withdrawal Agreement to Parliament for a vote, new facts that by then might have come to light may change the outcome.

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