Just over six years and one week ago, on 21 December 2012, the world was going to end, according to those who believed in a apocalyptic interpretation of the Mayan Long Count calendar. As it moved from the 13th into the 14th b'ak'tun - a change that happens every 5,126 years - expectations of cataclysmic or transformative events were raised.
Of course the world's sophisticates poo-pooed such primitive nonsense. Nothing happened of note happened that day.
And yet, and yet... Life is cyclical in nature, there are indeed many long waves - economic, political, historical; what goes round is said to come around. It could well be that 21 December 2012 marked an inflection point, a tipping point, anacyclosis, in the historical era that we are currently living through.
I'd posit that the world as we knew it ended on or about 21 December 2012. We stepped into a new world in 2013, and it's not been as nice.
With each passing year, 2012 looks like a golden time, marvellous, happy and peaceful for much of the world - certainly in Poland and in the UK. The word 'Brexit' had only just been coined (a portmanteau word copying the word 'Grexit' - Greece's putative departure from the eurozone). The first use of the word Grexit occurred in February 2012, 'Brexit' was coined in May 2012, to be used, at that time, almost exclusively by political pundits. And one year earlier, Trump announced that he would not be running in the 2012 presidential race. Meanwhile in Russia, Putin eased himself back into a warm seat at the Kremlin, following an election tainted by accusations of vote rigging and by widespread street protests.
In the heavens above us, the Curiosity lander began sending us amazing pictures from Mars, as it continues to do (latest uploads last week). On earth, the Higgs boson is found, as predicted, by scientists using CERN's Large Hadron Collider; another subatomic particle that pieces together to form the Standard Model framework.
Meanwhile, the summer of 2012 was one of joyous sporting events - the London Olympics, preceded by the Euro2012 held jointly by Poland and Ukraine. In the UK, the opening and closing ceremonies brought a nation together so brilliantly that few could have predicted how much social hostility has been brought about by Brexit, the consequence of a referendum that few today can deny was influenced to a significant degree by Russia. And in America, Barack Obama was on course to be reelected; a good man (though perhaps one who dangerously underestimated the Russian threat), a thoroughly decent human being.
Today the Western world is far, far messier than it was on 21 December 2012. Brexit is impending, and seemingly there's no way out. Either the economic disaster of a no-deal hard Brexit, or Theresa May's negotiated withdrawal that robs the UK of its say within the world's wealthiest trading bloc while still following EU rules and contributing to its budget, or scuppering the whole bent enterprise, which will annoy a significant minority. In the US, the Democrats take over the House of Representatives, while Special Counselor Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election grinds on.
It may well be that by early 2021, Trump will no longer be in the White House. And if it can be proved quickly that Russia swung the November 2016 election - it will then be up to a UK government to prove that similar mechanisms were at play in the run-up to the Brexit referendum. No government has any mandate to deliver the result of a referendum blemished by the wide-scale interference of an unfriendly foreign power.
I keep my fingers crossed; up till the end of 2012, I have only witnessed life getting better, year on year; the fall of the Berlin Wall; Poland's spectacular economic rise; the continued new benefits brought to us by technology; and as I have written, I am the first generation of Dembinskis not to be caught up in a war for over 100 years - how long can the good times last?
Not just Europe is under threat as never before since WW2; in China, a one-party state has been taken over by one man. If he chooses to take the world's most populous nation down a bellicose route, there will be no one to stop him.
War and inequality are part of the human condition. Wars in the traditional sense of mass mobilisations of men to go and shoot at one another seem to have subsided - no two nuclear powers have yet gone to all-out war. However, Russia, China, Iran are now effectively fighting the West with unconventional means, using the very tools the West has provided them with - technology. Social media, computer hacking, data analysis, off-shore banking, are all in everyday use against us, against our societies, driving wedges into differences among Western people, making us doubt and disbelieve, making us lose trust in ourselves, our leaders and our political systems.
Putin - the master of judo - is playing against opponents many times his weight and size by exploiting their weaknesses - and those weaknesses are not military by nature. But Putin can only play as hard as his budget allows. The Russian economy is desperately dependent on high raw-material prices. Cheap oil hits his military muscle. Unable to expand through innovation or consumer spending, Russia's GDP is unlikely to grow at more than a 1.5% to 2% crawl in 2019.
Watch Belarus. Watch Putin trying to strong-arm Lukashenka into ceding Belarus to Russia in some kind of fictional closer political union that will be tantamount to Anschluss. This will give Putin a direct land-bridge to Kaliningrad, allowing him to conduct more mischief against Poland and its Baltic neighbours. In particular, be mindful of Moscow's pernicious propaganda - 'useful idiots' are cheap to buy and easy to manipulate.
Putin is a loyal scholar of Lenin, who said: "When you push in the bayonet and feel mush, keep pushing. When you come across steel, withdraw." In 2019, the West must show more resolve, in particular around economic sanctions targeting oligarchs and Putin's cronies, hitting their Western bank accounts.
Are we in the early days of a 'bad' long cycle, coming after a quarter-century-long 'good' long cycle? Will 2019 see the ebbing of a bad tide? It is what I wish for all of us. I fear things will get worse.
This time three years ago:
Hybrid driving - the verdict
[Sadly, my hopes expressed here of being able to hire an electric car to do London-Derby "in a few years' time" have come to nought...]
This time five years ago:
Pitshanger Lane in the sun
This time nine years ago:
Miserable, grey, wet London
This time ten years ago:
Parrots in Ealing
This time 11 years ago:
Heathrow to Okęcie
War and inequality are part of the human condition. Wars in the traditional sense of mass mobilisations of men to go and shoot at one another seem to have subsided - no two nuclear powers have yet gone to all-out war. However, Russia, China, Iran are now effectively fighting the West with unconventional means, using the very tools the West has provided them with - technology. Social media, computer hacking, data analysis, off-shore banking, are all in everyday use against us, against our societies, driving wedges into differences among Western people, making us doubt and disbelieve, making us lose trust in ourselves, our leaders and our political systems.
Putin - the master of judo - is playing against opponents many times his weight and size by exploiting their weaknesses - and those weaknesses are not military by nature. But Putin can only play as hard as his budget allows. The Russian economy is desperately dependent on high raw-material prices. Cheap oil hits his military muscle. Unable to expand through innovation or consumer spending, Russia's GDP is unlikely to grow at more than a 1.5% to 2% crawl in 2019.
Watch Belarus. Watch Putin trying to strong-arm Lukashenka into ceding Belarus to Russia in some kind of fictional closer political union that will be tantamount to Anschluss. This will give Putin a direct land-bridge to Kaliningrad, allowing him to conduct more mischief against Poland and its Baltic neighbours. In particular, be mindful of Moscow's pernicious propaganda - 'useful idiots' are cheap to buy and easy to manipulate.
Putin is a loyal scholar of Lenin, who said: "When you push in the bayonet and feel mush, keep pushing. When you come across steel, withdraw." In 2019, the West must show more resolve, in particular around economic sanctions targeting oligarchs and Putin's cronies, hitting their Western bank accounts.
Are we in the early days of a 'bad' long cycle, coming after a quarter-century-long 'good' long cycle? Will 2019 see the ebbing of a bad tide? It is what I wish for all of us. I fear things will get worse.
This time three years ago:
Hybrid driving - the verdict
[Sadly, my hopes expressed here of being able to hire an electric car to do London-Derby "in a few years' time" have come to nought...]
This time five years ago:
Pitshanger Lane in the sun
This time nine years ago:
Miserable, grey, wet London
This time ten years ago:
Parrots in Ealing
This time 11 years ago:
Heathrow to Okęcie
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