Tuesday, 18 October 2011

The Ballad of Tess and Adam

...Or why no one's occupying the Warsaw Stock Exchange building.

The global protests against the fat cats of banking that have drawn the world into economic crisis have passed largely unnoticed in Poland. A few youngsters protested in Warsaw on Sunday, but this was as nothing to the protests witnessed in Rome, Madrid, Athens, New York or London.

Why?

As Jacek Żakowski in yesterday's Gazeta Wyborcza points out, you'd be mightily pissed off if the bank lent you a lot of money on easy terms to buy a dream home, then repossessed it when you lost your job as a result of the economy imploding due to bankers' stupidity. Yet in Poland, he says, the banks would not lend people money in the first place, so they had no homes to repossess, and hence have less anger to vent.

I'd like to mention Tess and Adam, who got married in 2008. When they applied to the bank for a mortgage to buy a flat in Ochota, they faced an almost insurmountable obstacle course to get hold of the money. Despite being two young professional people with excellent job prospects, the banks looked for every reason not to lend them money. But being determined young professional people, they finally managed to borrow the money and bought the flat. Now they have two children, and are working hard to repay the mortgage. Some of their friends were less lucky - cooped up in tiny flats, they feel they can't have that second child they always wanted, and yet no bank would lend them the money to buy a larger flat.

Why are Poland's banks so reticent to put their depositors' money to use? Lack of imagination? Over-bureaucratic approach to lending? Risk aversion? Or good sense and prudent management of depositors' funds?

In hindsight, it's better that Tess and Adam had to go through long and unpleasant formalities to get that flat in an economy that's still moving forward than if they were to have been lent lots of money to buy something dearer and then for Tess to get sacked and Adam's business to grind to a halt and for them - and their two children - to lose the roof over their heads. For this is what has happened across the USA, in the UK and in western Europe. And there, such people are marching.

For another perspective - consider this. The EU Capital Requirements Directive III, implemented in the UK long ago and here in Poland from 1 January 2012, caps bankers' bonuses and redundancy pay-offs. In the UK, it applies to those 'identified staff' in key risk-taking positions in banks and brokerage houses whose bonuses exceed £500,000. In Poland, it will apply to people in those same positions, whose bonuses exceed the equivalent of... €50,000. Twelve times less.

No wonder Poles are not mad at their bankers in the way Brits, Americans, Italians, Greeks or Spaniards are. Neither did Poland's bankers behave in an wildly imprudent manner in the run-up to the crash, nor did they brazenly overpay themselves for failure. The Polish taxpayer has not had to bail out any banks.

Will Poland's economy go into recession? I think not. It's steaming ahead at a strong enough rate for any coming slow-down to be just that - a slow-down of growth, not a dip into economic contraction. 2009 all over again - the Green Island.

This time last year:
Of sausages and drains

This time two years ago:
In search of the Sublime Aesthetic at 36,000 ft

This time three years ago:
Lublin works its charm

This time four years ago:
London from the air

5 comments:

Marcin said...

Oh this is my pet peeve.

You need to bow down and take it up the bum from the bankers, only to be given:
- a floating rate loan
- more often than not a FX risk exposure (CHF/EUR loans)
- overpriced flat to start with (caused by these low, floating rage loans)

Add to this:
- 1/3 of Poles work on "umowa zlecenie" or a similar worthless contract
- probably around 1/4 is "self employed" with no job security
- these self employed don't have any retirement provisions
- lack of bankrupcy protection (you need to hang yourself if too deep in debt)

You'll end up with a lot of mortgage slaves toiling away in quiet desperation. No wonder nobody has the time to protest if you have to work to make ends meet.

By the way, for the price of a 2 bedroom Kabaty flat we bought a 3 bedroom HOUSE in Oxfordshire.

Our wages in the UK are... slightly different.

Andrzej K said...

Three thoughts arise:

1. The Polish banks were told in no uncertain terms that there would not be any government bail out.
2. The Central Bank stopped the transfer of funds by some of the Polish banks to their foreign parent entities.
3. I am not sure that the current procedures in Poland are any more stringent than those (sensibly) imposed by UK building societies 30 years ago.


So all in all the Polish banks are in a much stronger position than may have been the case.

student SGH said...

Michael in his best again... Sorry for a delay, barely left my office over last two days...

Why are Poland's banks so reticent to put their depositors' money to use? Lack of imagination? Over-bureaucratic approach to lending? Risk aversion? Or good sense and prudent management of depositors' funds?

Has Sir heard of Rekomendacja S or Rekomendacja T issued by Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego? Maybe being better versed in regulatory environment could help why banks are holding back from lending. It's partly the risk aversion and prudent management of bank's owners' money. Depositors would be compensated by governments which guarantee private persons' deposits. If a bank's loan portfolio quality deteriorates, these are the shareholders who are dealt the blow first. The have to lose everything before creditors of a bank are worse off.

Michael, have you checked who those people who marched were? Mostly spoilt teenagers and students. They thought it was cool to stage a protest and shout something so they did. But on the other hand, something is being born. In a few years you may not see unpaid interns at your office... Beware...

I'm after all proud that Polish banks all have clean bill of health. Being prudent pays off, at last...

And I've told you many times what I think about mortgage lending. The less available mortgage loans are, the lower property prices will be and more people will afford to buy flats for cash. Taking out a loan for 30 years (from 1 January the repayment period may not be longer than 25 years - great!) means taking up a hige financial burden. I'd rather stay in a tiny flat and put some money aside...

I usually disagree with Toyah, but for some reason when he reiterates you have drifted away I share his opinion. You need to look at Poland and problems of ordinary people in this country from a different perspective.

student SGH said...

@Marcin

excellent points.

Will the host take a line on the comments?

Marcin said...

All good points, however the problem is that the majory of already advanced mortgages are denominated in a foreign currency.

So while the Zloty is rising the exposure seems less and less risky, when the PLN falls any comments about "sound" banks will look kinda naive.

I don't want to be around when (NOT if) that happens.