Teetering on the Edge of Chaos - my 3,000th blog post

Lent 2020 - Day 18

Blogger informs me that this is the 3,000th post on the W-wa Jeziorki blog. Just under 13 years have passed since I published my first-ever post on 1 April 2007. It has grown significantly since then - back in the days before microblogging in the form of Facebook and Twitter really took off, my blog served to carry short daily snippets accompanied by a single photo. Since then, long-form essays (written and photographic) have come to dominate my blog's content.

Looking back over the years, I can see how my writing, my photography - and my thinking has developed. Although my first Lent during which I denied myself alcohol for the duration was in 1992, my early blogged Lents also focused on self-denial rather than on spiritual contemplations. These came later; in 2013 I began more serious Lenten coverage with the Tischner-Żakowski dialogue about faith as a starting point. But every now and then, some random thought, often striking me while out walking. One post that's worth looking at again is this one, from May 2009, Balancing on the Edge of Chaos. My thinking has become more refined, more nuanced over the years, but one thing remains important - the danger of complacency.

The current global Covid-19 pandemic offers us all an excellent example of how easily a relatively stable Western world (Brexit, Trump and Putin excepted) can tumble into chaos.

How do we react?

The outcomes are binary: either you get infected, or you don't. If you do, either you get it seriously, or it passes mildly. If you do get it seriously, either you die or you recover.

Can prayer help? Social distancing - avoiding close contact (less than two metres) with other humans, regular washing of hands with soapy water, and not touching your face. That can help. But there is happenstance. Regular flu is harder to catch (it has lower basic reproduction number than Covid-19) but I caught a bad dose two years ago [How I caught it and how it affected me, see here and here.] I caught it because I was off guard, collecting a handful of viruses from a infected person travelling on the same bus, grabbing the same handrail and then rubbing my eye with the same hand. It took me two whole weeks to fully recover.

But can prayer help?

Define 'prayer'. I'd argue that two elements are crucial. Firstly - not being complacent. [Complacency - a missing word in Polish.] Being on guard, being acutely aware of the dangers and acting accordingly. Nothing metaphysical there. Secondly, gratitude that you are currently well, untouched by the virus. Are the grateful less liable to infection? Yes - but only if you weave gratitude into the constant fight against complacency; train yourself to be observant, grateful and aware. Simply not wanting to get ill can help if that triggers good behaviours. And if you believe in the power of belief.

Am I healthy because I’m happy? Or am I happy because I am healthy? Is my positive approach to life a result of the fact that I’m happy and healthy – or does the fact that I’m happy and healthy stem from my positive approach to life? Those who like to think of themselves as rationalists would stick to the first answer. Yet many of us would instinctively say “well, there’s something to be said for the second”. Indeed, but is there a deeper, scientifically determinable mechanism at work? Am I really able to think myself into a state of healthiness and happiness? Does being positive in life boost the immune system? Research into the placebo effect (and its evil twin, the nocebo effect) suggests that this may indeed be the case. Again, let’s take the question a stage further. Belief in the power of belief. If you don’t believe that a positive outlook can improve your health or slow down disease – then the likelihood is it won’t. If you do believe in belief, then the likelihood is - it will.

And there's the role of luck. Can you steer it? Can you will yourself lucky?

If you are experiencing a run of good luck, be aware of it, be thankful for it, be appreciative of it - and don't count on good luck to cover up your complacency. As the Rabbi says - if today you're having a shitty day, remember, tomorrow will be better. And if today you're having a great day, remember - tomorrow could be shit.

Will I make it home before the heavens open?

My father got the balance right - acceptance and fortitude. He knew there was nothing he could do to stave off the advancing years, but he kept on going; he didn't buckle or weaken. Right to the end, aged 96.

This time two years ago:
Span goes over Karczunkowska viaduct

This time seven years ago:
Goodness gracious!

This time eight years ago:

Muddy feet, Warsaw 'pavements'

This time nine years ago:
Cycling and recycling

This time ten years ago:
Winter clings on to the forest

This time 11 years ago:
Toyota launches the iQ

This time 12 years ago:
Old school Łódź