Chances, complacency and Gratitude

Lent 2020 - Day 25

I assume like me you've not had the coronavirus yet; I've confined myself to the house (with a daily stroll keeping at least two arms' lengths from the tiny handful of passers-by) for the duration, but how long the duration? Weeks or months or years? No one knows; we're in a situation that few humans alive today can remember. Anyone old enough to remember the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-20 from childhood would have to be over 105. Reading the works of Wiech, written in 1930s Warsaw, one comes across the curse 'ciężka grypa' ('jasna cholera' is still in the Polish vocabulary, but the 'flu related one isn't). By 1923, global markets are making up losses, the US is into the 'Roaring Twenties', the pandemic largely forgotten in popular culture, the horror of the trenches on the Western Front less so.

Looking at the spread of covid-19 and the woeful lack of preparedness of healthcare systems around the world, one thing is clear - it will affect everyone. Italy is some 14 days ahead of the UK, which is about ten days ahead of Poland in terms of numbers of confirmed cases and deaths.

It's a numbers game. Your chances of contracting the virus increase every day as the number of cases (confirmed by test or not) rises. The number of cases per million is rising, and with them your odds of avoiding covid-19 are dropping - from one in a million, to one in 500,000, to one in 100,000, to one in 50,000 and so on. Leave the virus to spread at the current rate (doubling every three to five days) and soon it will be down to one in ten. And then evens.

Can you will chance?

You can take precautions. You can wash your hands with soap for 20 seconds, avoid touching your face, practice social distancing, but given the speed of the spread, your chances of coming into contact with the virus and getting into your nasal, oral or ocular mucous membranes will increase. Touching shopping, touching your food will become riskier.

It becomes binary. You either catch Covid-19 or you don't. If you do, you either get mild symptoms or severe symptoms. With severe symptoms, you could end up in an intensive care unit. If you do, you'll either recover or you won't.

Below: this table is from the Imperial College study that persuaded the UK government from ditching its previous 'herd-immunity' strategy to its current one.

Looking at my age group (60-69), I can see that if I do catch the virus and develop the symptoms, I've a one-in-six chance of ending up in hospital; if I do end up in hospital, I've a one-in-four chance of needing intensive care, and overall a one-in-45 chance of dying of it. The chances of catching it grow by the day. The chances of dying from it grow by the year.

Nothing to be complacent about. We can all but hope that a vaccine is around the corner, and that wider-scale testing will be rolled out to catch the carriers (especially the asymptomatic ones). Complacency is the killer; our eyes were off the ball. Individually, complacency is letting your guard down, taking unnecessary risks.

In the meanwhile, feel gratitude - for health, for life. My daily strolls, setting off before dusk, give me a chance to commune with the Eternal and Infinite, catching a sunset, marvelling in the Magic Hour.

Can you will luck? Feel grateful for each day, thank God - and don't get complacent. Whenever you feel that complacency creeping into your train of thought - slap it down, consciously!

My life goals today are mainly metaphysical, reaching out for a greater understanding of what it is that makes us human, where our spiritual needs come from, searching for that among my qualia memories, seeking out spirit of place that bring peace of mind.

Meditation helps, a short, simple moment of calming oneself down, focusing on breathing, on existing - something that can be done at home, before falling asleep - a quick, easy way to regain peace of mind.

Calling on the Love of God, seeking that inner hug, that welling up of tears of joy - it's not something that everyone can do; and not always are you in the right mood, but try, and you may be able to surround yourself with an aura of universal peace. Then is the time to pray for the world.

This time six years ago:
The clash of narratives

This time seven years ago:

The Church and democracy

This time eight years ago:
Prime lens or zoom?

This time nine years ago:
Warsaw's failed bid as City of Culture, 2016

This time ten years ago:
Stalinist downtown at dusk

This time 11 years ago:
The End of an Age of Excess?

This time 12 years ago:
Snowy Easter in England