Saturday, 31 December 2011

Economic predictions for 2012

My quick calls for 2012...

Key economic indicators: Poland

2011 (latest data) 2012 (same time this year)
GDP growth 4.2% (Q3)
2.0% (Q3)

Unemployment 12.1% (Nov)
14.5% (Nov)

Inflation 4.8% (Nov)
4.0% (Nov)

Key economic indicators: UK

2011 (latest data) 2012 (same time this year)
GDP growth 0.6% (Q3, revised)
-0.3% (Q3)

Unemployment 8.3% (Oct for Q3)
10.5% (Oct for Q3)

Inflation 4.8% (Nov)
4.5% (Nov)

Key economic indicators: Eurozone

2011 (latest data) 2012 (same time this year)
GDP growth 1.4% (Q3)
-1.5% (Q3)

Unemployment 10.3% (Oct)
15.0% (Oct)

Inflation 3.0% (Nov)
3.8% (Nov)

I predict that the eurozone will somehow stick together; Greece will not be pushed out.

And currencies - on 31 December 2012, I predict 1 GBP will be 5.15 PLN, 1 EUR will be 4.20 PLN, and 1 GBP will be 1.22 EUR.

In Poland, 2012 will be drier and slightly hotter than 2011, with a snow-free winter; a long, dry spring (leading to some crop failures); intense rainfalls and winds in July and August; and a calm, long, dry golden autumn. Snow will come early in 2012; there will be a white Christmas.

This time last year:
Classic cars, West Ealing

This time two years ago:
Jeziorki 2009, another view

This time three years ago:
Jeziorki 2008, another view

This time four years ago:
Final thoughts for 2007


student SGH said...

Great stuff. I'll revisit this post in a year.

Your economic predictions a big square with assumption for 2012 state budget draft and they weather forecast for 2012 is what I recall seeing or hearing somewhere ;-)

Just joking - must be a coincidence.

Michael Dembinski said...

Weather forecasts I don't tend to read (other than's one for the next 24 hours); economic forecasts - I've read that many - I guess it's on the bearish-side of the average.

Martin Oxley said...

Think you are right. The Eurozone will continue to stumble along for most of the year. The real challenge is growth and global competitiveness.

Is the weather a strategic shift and is Poland ready for it?

Mass youth unemployment will be a big issue in 2012 across Europe


Andrzej K said...

I do not look at weather forecasts either but rely on Minia a Norwegian Forest Cat (Norweski Kot Lesny) who in October 2011 grew a very thick undercoat which she then shed in November clearly foretelling a mild winter.

As for student SGH's comments I would be seriously concerned if Min Fin forecasts were widely different. After all the Minister hails from my alma mater the LSE!!!

Andrzej K said...

PS whilst agreeing with Martin that economic growth will be a challenge why is growth in itself a prerequisite for full employment in the West. Surely the answer is to nearshore jobs back to Europe. And quite how often do we need a new television, mobile phone, refrigerator etc? They do not add to the sum of human happiness do they?

We may well be facing a paradigm change in the West with quality products being increasingly in vogue (i.e. those with a high artisan labour content). I may of course be completely wrong however like Michal I am very happy to keep older proven gadgets until they finally give up the ghost. I use only 10% of the functionality of my six year old Sony Vaio laptop and dread the day I will have to move to something with a built in self destruct function programmed for exactly the day after the warranty exprires!