The Long Review of 2022 (Pt. III)

Climate change is creeping up on us, still far too many are in denial, far too many are who do accept the science are complacent. Yesterday, 27 December, Warsaw's daytime high temperature was 10C, on Sunday 1 January it is forecast to be 13C. The creaking frosts of yesteryear are but a memory. 

At least we had several days of deep snow - coupled with the rains that have washed it away, the water-table should rise and there won't be a repeat of this spring's mild drought, which affected early fruit crops like strawberries and cherries. And the warm weather means less need to heat our houses.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to scores of millions of tonnes of extra carbon dioxide gas being emitted into our planet's atmosphere (by the autumn between 30 and 100 million tonnes according to various estimates). The year's UN climate-change summit, COP27, saw the establishment of a mechanism to pay for climate damage wreaked on poor countries by emissions caused by polluting countries - but there were no new targets set, no reckoning of emissions made over the past year. 

It's not getting better, it's getting worse. Extreme weather events will be getting more common. This year we saw Pakistan hit by major floods that had a third of the country under water, and right now, North America is being hammered by winter storms of exceptional ferocity. Floods, droughts (and with them forest fires) will plague the world, rich and poor, with increasing frequency. Poland is well located to avoid the worst heatwaves and flood events, which makes its people more complacent. Britain - frequently lashed by Atlantic gales - is readier to accept the new reality. 

But will people take action, or leave it to government and business to react?

Anyone doing one of those carbon-footprint calculators online will be shocked as to how much personal responsibility they should be taking. Climate change has dramatically altered my outlook on life and consumption. Despite not owning a car for 11 years, riding small-engined motorbikes rarely (only on sunny summer days, and then not far!), having 100% of my electricity usage covered by solar power, recycling all my waste (and composting any fruit and veg peels etc), working from home as often as possible, I'm STILL in a position whereby we'd need 2.5 Earths if everyone on the planet lived my lifestyle. But it's not the seven, eight or 13 Earths that many of my readers will require.

What more can I do? Eat less meat and dairy products is about the only thing with which I can make a big advance in terms of cutting my carbon footprint.

This year we passed the moment in human population when our population exceeded eight billion - just 11 years since it passed seven billion. When I was born, it was not yet three billion. However, there are clear signs that the curve is flattening. The nine billionth human being is expected in 2037 - 15 years from now, the ten billionth in 2057, in time for my hundredth birthday, 20 years after the last milestone.

As humanity is getting wealthier and wiser, family sizes will continue shrinking; China will be the third -most populous nation on earth after India and Nigeria by the end of this century. 

I believe that by the middle of the next century, the number of humans will stabilise at a sustainable five billion - will a richer, more longer-lived and fulfilled population - if all goes well.

We've become more used to reading doomsday scenarios. This year's NASA's successful DART mission to crash a spacecraft into an asteroid's moon to see how it can deflect its course suggests that with enough advance warning, mankind has proved that it is able to prevent a cataclysmic asteroid strike on our planet. 

Pandemics - we're not over it yet. This is our third Christmas with Covid, and its only now starting to impact China as it emerges from nearly three years of draconian lockdown. Here in Poland, it's clearly on the wane - but for how long? Today's seven-day rolling average of reported new cases is 459, and deaths at 6; this time last year it was 12,345 new cases and 406 deaths. This time two years ago it was 7,871 new cases and 246 deaths. Will we see a new mutation next year?

Nuclear war? Supervolcano? Don't know. Climate change remains the number one threat to us all, yet here we all are doing precious little about it. 

This time last year:
The Person Who Contemplates Not.

This time four years ago:
2018 - a year in journeys

This time ten years ago:
Wise words about motoring

This time 11 years ago:
Hurry up and wait with WizzAir at Luton